周子堯@FB

  基本資料  
編號                 ：96 W
擾動編號日期  ：2021 年 07 月 31 日 13 時
撤編日期         ：2021 年 08 月 03 日 13 時
96W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-25N-142E

老農民版夜神月

JMA升格TD

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 26N 144E NNW 10 KT.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Medium,JMA發布Warning

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
26.8N 143.5E, APPROXIMATELY 545 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF YOKOSUKA NAS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN AN EXTENSIVE SWATH OF CONVERGENT SOUTHERLIES AND
DEEP MOISTURE AS INDICATED IN A 311916Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE.
A 010038Z ASCAT-B IMAGE SHOWS AN ELONGATED, DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH
25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE AND 10 TO 15 KNOT
WINDS OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 96W IS LOCATED WITHIN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH WEAK EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
MODERATE (20 KTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE GRADUAL, SLOW INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS TOWARD WESTERN HONSHU OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS MEDIUM.

WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA
AT 26.7N 143.7E OGASAWARA SHOTO MOVING NNW 10 KNOTS.
POSITION POOR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

t02436

JTWC發布TCFA

t02436

JMA 12Z取消Warning

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 28N 142E NW 10 KT.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC取消TCFA,並降評為Low

WTPN21 PGTW 020530 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96W) CANCELLATION
CORRECTED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/010521Z AUG 21//
REF/B/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011421Z AUG 21//
AMPN/REF A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERTS.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 010530). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 26.8N 143.4E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 140.8E, APPROXIMATELY 310 NM SOUTH OF YOKOSUKA.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 022201Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS
DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLCC. A 020109Z ASCAT-C PARTIAL PASS
REVEALS AN ELONGATED LLCC AND 15-20 KNOT WINDS IN THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. ANALYSIS INDICATES AN ENVIRONMENT THAT IS MARGINALLY
CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST) OFFSET BY LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND
MODERATE (15-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE
THAT INVEST 96W WILL UNDERGO MINIMAL, IF ANY, CONSOLIDATION AS IT
PROPAGATES NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS JAPAN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DONWGRADED
TO LOW.
2. SEE REF B FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 154.2E.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED GEOGRAPHICAL REFERENCE IN
PARA. 1.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

已登陸日本,JTWC取消評級

ABPW10 PGTW 030000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/022200Z-030600ZAUG2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021951ZAUG2021//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/021952ZAUG2021//
NARR/REFS A AND B ARE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 02AUG21 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 12W (TWELVE) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 153.2E, APPROXIMATELY 84 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF
MINAMI TORI SHIMA, AND HAD TRACKED NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE
ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW
022100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AT 02AUG21 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W (THIRTEEN) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 21.1N 113.0E, APPROXIMATELY 98 NM SOUTHWEST OF HONG
KONG, AND HAD TRACKED EASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING
TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF B (WTPN32 PGTW 022100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (3) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 30.1N 140.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

周子堯@FB

JMA亦於02/21Z 判斷於三重縣一帶登陸，並於03/03Z判定消散

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 35N 136E NW 15 KT.