老農民版夜神月

GFS18Z最新系集

老農民版夜神月

JTWC續發TCFA

WTPN21 PGTW 070030
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97W) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/060021Z JUL 21//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 060030)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.0N 110.7E TO 19.0N 105.5E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 062330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 110.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6N 112.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 110.3E, APPROXIMATELY
122NM SOUTH OF HAIKOU, HAINAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 062052Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF
THE LLC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), WESTWARD
OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C). GLOBAL DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS
IT CONSOLIDATES AND TRACKS GENERALLY WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS
SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
080030Z.//
NNN

老農民版夜神月

JTWC00Z最新分析Too Weak

TPPN11 PGTW 062356

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 97W (S OF HAINAN)

B. 06/2330Z

C. 17.94N

D. 110.35E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. N/A

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 49A/PBO PTLY XPSD LLCC/ANMTN. THIS SYSTEM IS TOO WEAK TO
CLASSIFY.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   06/1823Z  18.02N  111.17E  AMS2


   RHOADES

老農民版夜神月

GFS最新系集,距離命名只剩最後約24小時的機會

dom

JMA發佈Warning

WARNING.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA

AT 18.0N 109.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WNW 10 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

判定登陸海南島

台风快讯
2021年总280期
中国气象局中央气象台07月07日11时03分

南海热带低压的中心今天（7日）上午11点钟前后在海南省陵水县沿海登陆，登陆时中心附近最大风力有7级（15米/秒），中心最低气压为1000百帕。

dom

中心已出海，即將登陸越南。

台风快讯
2021年总283期
中国气象局中央气象台07月07日17时03分
时    间：        07 日 17 时
中心位置：        北纬19.0度、东经108.5度
强度等级：        热带低压
最大风力：        7级， 15米/秒（约54公里/小时）
中心气压：        1000 hPa
参考位置：        位于海南岛西南部近海海面上
预报结论：        热带低压将以每小时20-25公里的速度向西偏北方向移动，强度变化不大。
（下次更新时间为7日20时30分）

dom

今年最短命的TD。

老農民版夜神月

JTWC偷懶,在明顯未登陸的情況下判定登陸,並發布Final Warning

TPPN11 PGTW 071757

A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (W OF HAINAN)

B. 07/1730Z

C. 20.27N

D. 107.20E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 63A/PBO . CNVCTN WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDING A
DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO. DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


YOUNG

WTPN31 PGTW 072100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT) WARNING NR 002   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   071800Z --- NEAR 20.4N 106.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND RADAR
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4N 106.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   080600Z --- 20.7N 105.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 21.0N 104.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 015 KT, GUSTS 025 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
    ---
REMARKS:
072100Z POSITION NEAR 20.5N 106.1E.
07JUL21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 08W (EIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
46 NM SOUTHEAST OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHEARED CONVECTION TO THE WEST OF A POORLY
ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS NOW CROSSING OVER THE COAST
OF VIETNAM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE PGTW
POSITION FIX AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 20 KTS IS HEDGED SLIGHTLY
LOWER THAN THE PGTW CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 1.0 (25 KTS).
RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS NO INDICATION OF ANY SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE REMAINING. DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AND HIGH
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (>25 KTS), TD 08W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS FORECAST
DECREASE TO 15 KTS WITHIN 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.//
NNNN