0908morakot

  中度颱風  
編號：2105 ( 06 W )
名稱： 薔琵 ( Champi )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期        ：2021 年 06 月 18 日 07 時
JMA升格熱低日期：2021 年 06 月 21 日 08 時
CWB編號日期       ：2021 年 06 月 22 日 08 時
命名日期　    　    ：2021 年 06 月 23 日 08 時
停編日期　　       ：2021 年 06 月 28 日 08 時
登陸地點　　 　  ： 無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局  (CWB)：35 m/s ( 12 級 )
日本氣象廳  (JMA) ：35 m/s ( 65 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：65 kts ( Cat.1 )
海平面最低氣壓： 980 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　： 150 公里
十級風半徑　　： 50 公里

  過去路徑圖  


  擾動編號資料  
94W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.4.7N.157.1E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

t02436

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
4.7N 157.1E, APPROXIMATELY 135 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF POHNPEI,
MICRONESIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS
A BROAD AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY. A 172208Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS BROAD
TURNING COMPOSED OF 5-10 KT WINDS. ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY WARM (30-31C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND
STRENGTHEN, REACHING WARNING CRITERIA BETWEEN TAU 72 AND 96.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.2N 155.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 153.7E, APPROXIMATELY 133
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
(EIR) DEPICTS A VERY BROAD AREA OF DENSE, PERSISTENT CONVECTION WITH
FRAGMENTED RAIN BANDS BEGINNING TO ORGANIZE. THE SLOW CONSOLIDATION
IS ALSO EVIDENT ON RECENT TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION. THE
ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH CONDUCIVE, WARM (28-29
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR. FURTHERMORE, A POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVER THE ANALYZED
POSITION REVEALS SUPPORTIVE, ROBUST RADIAL DIVERGENCE ALOFT THAT IS
CLEARLY EVIDENT IN THE ANIMATED EIR LOOP. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
TOWARD GUAM AS IT SLOWLY INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

GFS仍持續看好此擾動的發展
而EC系集支持發展的成員則較前幾報來的少

老農民版夜神月

向來較保守的EC決定報亦對此系統有了些微反應

周子堯@FB

稍早00Z的風場掃描大多為5-10kt風旗，且無明確旋轉中心，預估在未來24小時內維持Medium機率較高

老農民版夜神月

GFS對其仍持續有穩定的反應
甚至有少數系集成員支持其發展至高強度

老農民版夜神月

EC的預測則顯然是完全另一種想法
EC12Z系集,有極少部分成員支持發展;決定報部分,對其的反應仍相當微弱