老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號               ：93 S
擾動編號日期 ：2021 年 05 月 30 日 00 時
撤編日期        ：2021 年 06 月 04 日 02 時
93S.INVEST.15kts.1007mb.7S.88E

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Medium

  (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 9.3S 90.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 90.7E, APPROXIMATELY 399 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 010017Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS
FORMATIVE BANDING AND DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE ENVIRONMENT IS SUPPORTIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WARM (28-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE VALUES, STRONG
DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. OUTFLOW
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TAP INTO
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. FURTHERMORE, A 010217Z METOP-B ASCAT
IMAGE SHOWS INCREASED WINDS (20-25KTS) ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE DISTURBANCE.
NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S WILL TRACK GENERALLY
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

dom

JTWC00Z升格TD

93S INVEST 210601 0000 9.5S 90.7E SHEM 25 1004

老農民版夜神月

JTWC降評Low

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 92E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 97.5E, APPROXIMATELY 44 NM
EAST OF COCO ISLANDS. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR)
SHOWS A SINGULAR MASS OF DEEP CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) AND A PARTIAL 021545Z 25KM ASCAT PASS DEPICTS AN
OBTUSE WIND FIELD WITH 30KTS DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
WRAPPING INTO AN ELONGATED TROUGH SHAPE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH STRONG POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE, AND LOW (10-15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM, OFFSET BY STRONG VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR(>30KTS) DOWNSTREAM. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 93S
WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG A WEAK BAROCLINIC BOUNDARY
WITH A MINIMAL WINDOW FOR INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC於18Z的報文中並未提到93S,沒有做撤評的動作,隨後直接撤編

ABIO10 PGTW 031800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
INDIAN/OCEAN/031800Z-041800ZJUN2021//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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