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老農民版夜神月|2021-6-6 00:06
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本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-6-6 00:08 編輯
JTWC發布Final Warning
WTPN31 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 028//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (CHOI-WAN) WARNING NR 028
DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 04W
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
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WARNING POSITION:
051200Z --- NEAR 27.9N 128.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 27 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 050 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
REPEAT POSIT: 27.9N 128.5E
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FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060000Z --- 31.4N 134.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 30 KTS
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24 HRS, VALID AT:
061200Z --- 34.4N 140.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
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REMARKS:
051500Z POSITION NEAR 28.8N 130.0E.
05JUN21. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (CHOI-WAN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 92
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 27
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION AND INTENSITY
ALIGN WITH RECENT ASCAT DATA FROM 051157Z AND 051311Z, WHICH
INDICATE AN ELONGATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DECREASING WIND
SPEEDS NEAR THE CENTER. TD 04W IS TRACKING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD IN
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO THE EAST AND A DEEP
TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (GREATER THAN 20
KNOTS) AND PASSAGE OVER COOLER WATER (25-26 CELSIUS) ARE INDUCING
RAPID WEAKENING. CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS COMPLETELY DETERIORATED
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND THE ONLY REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO A SMALL AREA WELL TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD UNDER THE CURRENT STEERING
INFLUENCES. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, AND
THE TRACK FORECAST LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT
TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED
FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
051200Z IS 11 FEET.//
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