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置換當中，高層風眼填塞，JTWC03Z預測緩慢減弱並於傍晚登陸印度WTIO31 PGTW 170300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE) WARNING NR 012
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
170000Z --- NEAR 18.5N 71.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 320 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.5N 71.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 20.3N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
180000Z --- 22.0N 71.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 020 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.7N 71.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
190000Z --- 25.5N 73.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
170300Z POSITION NEAR 18.9N 71.5E.
17MAY21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01A (TAUKTAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
78 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF MUMBAI, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM CONTINUED TO BE SYMMETRICAL AND
COMPACT DESPITE HOURS OF PERSISTENT LAND INTERACTION WITH THE
WESTERN INDIAN COAST. DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS, MOSTLY FROM THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO THE CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT
HAS DEEPENED FURTHER AS EVIDENCED BY COLDER OVERSHOOTING CLOUD TOPS.
THE 12-NM EYE HAS BECOME MORE RAGGED BUT REMAINS WELL-DEFINED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE EYE,
ADJUSTED FOR PARALLAX ERROR AND LINED UP WITH A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 162110Z AMSR2 36GHZ PASS AND COMPOSITE
WEATHER RADAR LOOP FROM MUMBAI, INDIA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120
KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL ASSESSMENT OF THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE
OF T6.0/115KTS, SATCON ESTIMATE OF 123KTS, AND ADT OF T6.8/135KTS TO
REFLECT THE IMPROVED STATE OF THE CYCLONE. ANALYSIS INDICATES
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10-15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SST). TC 01A WILL CONTINUE ON ITS NORTHERLY CURRENT
TRACK ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL NEAR JAFARABAD, INDIA BY
TAU 18. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT ENTERS
AN AREA OF GREATER VWS IN CONJUNCTION WITH TERRAIN INTERACTION AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER SST NEARSHORE AS IT TRACKS NORTH. AFTER LANDFALL,
THE CYCLONE WILL RAPIDLY ERODE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE RUGGED
TERRAIN, LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN VERY TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH AN EVEN AND GRADUAL SPREAD TO 130NM
AT TAU 48, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.
//
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