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JTWC評級提升至Medium (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.4N 144.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 144.0E, APPROXIMATELY 516
NM SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
REVEALS SYMMETRICAL FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE ASSESSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A PARTIAL 111048Z ASCAT-A PASS DEPICTS THE
EASTERN SIDE OF AN ELONGATED LLC WITH 15-20 KT WINDS PRESENT TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH OF THE LLC. INVEST 94W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST WESTWARD AND EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
THE CIRCULATION IN ASSOCIATION WITH INVEST 94W WILL CONTINUE TO
CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18
TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM. 
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