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老農民版夜神月|2021-4-25 03:24
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本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-4-25 05:11 編輯
JTWC發布Final WarningWTPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 046//
RMKS/
1. SUBTROPICAL STORM 02W (SURIGAE) WARNING NR 046
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
241800Z --- NEAR 21.7N 134.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 260 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 134.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
250600Z --- 22.0N 137.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 23 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
251800Z --- 23.7N 142.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 230 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 21.8N 135.0E.
24APR21. SUBTROPICAL STORM (SS) 02W (SURIGAE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
438 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE SYSTEM
REMAINS ASSESSED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM BUT IS EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY
TRANSITION TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A
HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC, FRONTAL STRUCTURE WITH EXTENSIVE DRY AIR PUNCHING
INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED
UNDER A MAJOR UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE AS EVIDENCED BY
EXPANSIVE COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 40 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT ASCAT DATA AS
WELL AS A 240911Z SENTINEL-1B SAR PASS, WHICH INDICATES MAXIMUM
WINDS OF 40-48 KNOTS. SS 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK EASTWARD TO EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT).
SURIGAE WILL COMPLETE ETT AS A MINOR SHORT-WAVE TROUGH, CURRENTLY
LOCATED SOUTH OF KYUSHU, DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS PROVIDING UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT. THE SYSTEM MAY INTENSIFY
SLIGHTLY AS AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND WILL REMAIN A LARGE, GALE-FORCE LOW AS IT TRANSITS SOUTH
OF JAPAN. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL
HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF
REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 22
FEET.//
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