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VMGD開始發報, 首報不看好命名

Information Number 1 on Tropical Low issued by the Vanuatu Meteorology and
Geo-Hazards Department, Port Vila at 3:08pm VUT Saturday 10 April 2021.

At 11:00am local time, a Tropical Low with a central pressure estimated at
1002hPa was located near 19.5S 163.7E. The Tropical Low is positioned at the
center right of square letter D, number 10 (D,10) in the New Vanuatu Tropical
Cyclone Tracking map [center right of square letter C, number 9 (C,9) in the
Old Vanuatu Tropical Cyclone Tracking map]. This is about 420 KM northwest of
Noumea. In the past 6 hours, the system was moving in a southeasterly direction
at 43 KM/HR. The potential for the system to develop further into a tropical
cyclone and moves towards Vanuatu in the next 12 to 24 hours is low.

Forecast Positions
Date and Time                     Position                 Intensity
+06 hours (5pm, 10 Apr)           20.8S, 165.1E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+12 hours (11pm, 10 Apr)          22.1S, 166.4E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+18 hours (5am, 11 Apr)           23.4S, 167.7E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+24 hours (11am, 11 Apr)          24.8S, 169.0E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+36 hours (11pm, 11 Apr)          27.0S, 171.3E            25 KTS (45 KM/HR)
+48 hours (11am, 12 Apr)          28.9S, 173.4E            20 KTS (35 KM/HR)
+60 hours (11pm, 12 Apr)          30.6S, 175.4E            20 KTS (35 KM/HR)
+72 hours (11am, 13 Apr)          32.2S, 177.6E            20 KTS (35 KM/HR)

At this stage, the Tropical Low does not pose any significant threat to the islands
of Vanuatu. However, isolated heavy rainfalls are expected over the northern and
central islands tonight and later extending to the southern islands. Possible
flooding is expected over low lying areas and areas close to river banks, including
coastal flooding. People living near these areas are advised to take precautions.

A severe weather warning has been issued for northern and central islands and a
marine strong wind warning is issued for the central and southern waters of Vanuatu.

People are advised to listen to Radio Vanuatu and all other Radio Outlets to
get an update information on this system.

The Vanuatu Meteorology and Geo-Hazards Department is closely monitoring the
system and will issue the next information at 12:00am or earlier if the situation
changes.  

dom

VMGD03Z判定中心通過新喀里多尼亞

老農民版夜神月

在未發TCFA的情形下，JTWC升格28P

28P TWENTYEIGH 210410 1800 23.4S 167.2E SHEM 35 999

老農民版夜神月

JTWC21Z開始發報，並預測目前便是巔峰

WTPS31 PGTW 102100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   101800Z --- NEAR 23.4S 167.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.4S 167.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   110600Z --- 26.0S 169.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   111800Z --- 28.4S 171.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
102100Z POSITION NEAR 24.1S 167.7E.
10APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 28P (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY 99 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
WELL-ORGANIZED CORE CONVECTION AND CONVECTIVE BANDING. EARLIER RADAR
IMAGERY FROM NEW CALEDONIA HAD SHOWN AN EYE FEATURE AND CURRENT
RADAR IMAGERY STILL SHOWS TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A
WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. DESPITE THE SYSTEM'S
HYBRID NATURE AND LOCATION WITHIN FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW,
AND PERSISTENT LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS), TC 28P WAS ABLE TO DEVELOP PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND
SPIRAL BANDING OVER THE NORTHEAST, EAST AND SOUTHWEST QUADRANTS AS
INDICATED ON A 101848Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR COMPOSITE IMAGE. SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM NOUMEA (91592) AT 10/1500Z ALONG THE NORTHERN
FLANK OF THE SYSTEM WERE NNW AT 35 KNOTS WITH A MINIMUM SLP VALUE OF
999MB. ADDITIONAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM LA TONTOUTA (91590) FROM
10/1330-1400Z INDICATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 48 KNOTS AND MINIMUM SLP
NEAR 998MB. BASED ON THE IMPROVED SIGNATURE IN EIR, DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED TO T2.5-3.0 (35-45 KNOTS). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED ON THE LOWER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES AT 35
KNOTS, WHICH IS BETTER ALIGNED WITH SURFACE WIND AND SLP REPORTS. TC
28P IS EXPECTED TO BE A SHORT-LIVED SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS
SOUTHEASTWARD WITHIN THE PERSISTENT NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. VWS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS BY TAU 24, WHICH WILL PRODUCE
STEADY WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION NO LATER THAN TAU 24. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 100NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS
AT TAU 24, THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 101800Z IS 10
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110300Z, 110900Z AND 111500Z.//
NNNN

dom

正在加速南移, FMS放棄命名

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Apr 102242 UTC.  

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD13F [1001HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 24.1S 167.4E AT 102100UTC. TD13F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 KNOTS. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI VIS AND IR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES DISPLACED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF SUPPOSED LLCC . ORGANISATION HAS SLIGHTLY IMPROVED IN THE PAST 12 HOURS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700HPA. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE WITH A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE SUPPOSED LLCC IS LOCATED IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND MOVING INTO A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 26 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODEL ARE GRADUALLY MOVE THE SYSTEM SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO A HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEARED ENVIRONMENT AND COOLER SSTS.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.

dom

JTWC00Z把定強稍提升至40節並認為巔峰已達

28P TWENTYEIGH 210411 0000 24.6S 167.9E SHEM 40 1002

TPPS10 PGTW 110021
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTY EIGHT)
B. 11/0000Z
C. 24.50S
D. 167.80E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 40A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 2.0. MET YIELDS 1.5. PT YIELDS 2.0. DBO PT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
HEINS

dom

SSD06Z判定轉化為副熱帶氣旋

TXPS25 KNES 110614
TCSWSP
A. 28P (NONAME)
B. 11/0530Z
C. 25.6S
D. 168.6E
E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8
F. SUBTROPICAL
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...THIS ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. THE SYSTEM
HAS BEGUN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION AROUND THE
LLCC PROGRESSING POLE WARD AND SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE CENTER AS WELL
AS THE SYSTEM IS INCREASING IN SIZE AND PROGRESSING QUICKLY TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS WILL BE THE FINAL BULLETIN
UNLESS TROPICAL TRANSITION REOCCURS IN SATELLITE IMAGERY.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...SAMBUCCI

dom

JTWC FW

WTPS31 PGTW 111500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 004//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT) WARNING NR 004   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   111200Z --- NEAR 27.5S 170.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 19 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 27.5S 170.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   120000Z --- 29.9S 172.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
111500Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 171.2E.
11APR21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 28P (TWENTYEIGHT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
409 NM SOUTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW CALEDONIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TC 28P HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED, WITH THE LOWER LEVELS DECOUPLING AND LAGGING BEHIND THE
UPPER-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES. AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A PARTIAL 111013Z
ASCAT-B PASS LENT HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE SAME
ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL AREA OF 35-40KT WINDS CONFINED TO THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE QUICKLY WEAKENING CIRCULATION. IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A PGTW DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T2.0 (30 KTS)
AND AN ADT ESTIMATE OF T2.8 (41 KTS), CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THE
INITIAL INTENSITY. TC 28P IS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER STR TO THE EAST, BUT FORWARD SPEED HAS
SLOWED AS IT DECOUPLES FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD, VWS WILL INCREASE TO OVER 35 KNOTS AND
SSTS WILL COOL TO LESS THAN 25C, LEADING TO RAPID DISSIPATION BELOW
WARNING CRITERIA BY TAU 12. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM
BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 111200Z IS 15 FEET.//
NNNN