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10F(94P)

簽到天數: 1650 天

[LV.Master]伴壇終老

2021-2-21 08:27 | 顯示全部樓層
  基本資料  
編號               :94 P
擾動編號日期 :2021 02 21 08
撤編日期        :2021 02 00 00
94P.INVEST.15kts.993mb.10S.175W

20210221.0000.himawari-8.vis.94P.INVEST.15kts.993mb.10S.175W.100pc.jpg

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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-2-22 04:07 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC評級Low
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.2S 179.1W, APPROXIMATELY 330NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF SUVA,
FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
VERY BROAD AND ELONGATED CIRCULATION EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTH PACIFIC
CONVERGENT ZONE WITH DISORGANIZED AREA OF FLARING DEEP CONVECTION
ALONG THE NORTHERN BOUNDARY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW (05-
10KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND AMPLE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY,
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IS CONDUCIVE AT 29 CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE INVEST 94P WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE TROUGH
AND CONSOLIDATE INTO A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND
FIELD IN 24-36 HOURS APPROXIMATELY 200NM SOUTH OF AMERICAN SAMOA.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
abpwsair - 2021-02-22T040533.648.jpg 20210221.1930.goes-17.vis.2km.94P.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.13.6S.178.4W.pc.jpg
94P_gefs_latest (1).png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-2-22 15:14 | 顯示全部樓層
正與旁邊的95P快速東南移,數值預測發展空間不大
ecmwf_z500_mslp_swpac_fh0-144.gif 94P_tracks_latest.png 94P_gefs_latest.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-2-22 21:16 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS編號10F,不看好其能成旋
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 220902 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 10F CENTRE [1003 HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 13.0
178.5W AT 220600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TD10F SLOW MOVING.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST AND NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC WITH
POOR ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES JUST SOUTH OF AN UPPER RIDGE AND EAST
OF AN UPPER TROUGH IN A STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE ENVIRONMENT. VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR IS LOW BUT HIGH JUST TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH. SST IS AROUND
29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE PICKING UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVING IT SOUTHEAST WITH
SLIGHT DEEPENING.

THE POTENTIAL FOR TD10F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NEXT 24
TO 48 HOURS IS VERY LOW.
20210222.1250.himawari-8.ir.94P.INVEST.20kts.1007mb.14.3S.177.1W.100pc.jpg 94P_gefs_latest (2).png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-2-23 14:31 | 顯示全部樓層
JTWC06Z升格TD
94P INVEST 210223 0000 14.3S 176.7W SHEM 25 1004
vis-animated.gif rb-animated.gif 94P_tracks_latest.png 94P_gefs_latest.png
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-2-24 07:47 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-2-24 08:02 編輯

現位於斐濟東北方向,將逐漸朝較高緯度移動,FMS於23Z將其降格為了低壓
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 232320 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE TD10F CENTRE [1003HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 16.0S
175.0W AT 231800 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS/IR
IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. TD10F HAS WEAKENED IN
THE LAST 6 HOURS AND HAS BEEN DECLASSIFIED INTO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
AT 232100UTC.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

SHGMSCOL.jpg 20210223.2300.himawari-8.ir.94P.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.15.7S.175.5W.100pc.jpg
20210223.2310.himawari-8.vis.94P.INVEST.25kts.1004mb.15.7S.175.5W.100pc.jpg 94P_gefs_latest.png
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[LV.9]以壇為家II

dom|2021-2-25 14:46 | 顯示全部樓層
FMS在報文裡已不再提到94P,JTWC06Z評級維持Low
Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 242310 UTC.  NO SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE AREA.      
ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZFEB2021//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.3S 176.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.3S 171.5W, APPROXIMATELY
188 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 250357Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT DEEP AND FLARING CONVECTION OBSCURING A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH MINOR LOW-LEVEL BANDING. ANALYSES INDICATE AN
OVERALL UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY
HIGH (30-40KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY
INDICATE THAT INVEST 94P WILL PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
MINIMAL CONSOLIDATION OR STRENGTHENING. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN
SHGMSCOL.JPG 141002jxxfppgnxvayppp2.jpg 141011ur4bfyyryykj7rcf.jpg
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[LV.Master]伴壇終老

老農民版夜神月|2021-2-26 07:31 | 顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2021-2-26 07:39 編輯

ASCAT20Z~21Z最新風場
LATEST.jpg LATEST01.jpg
20210225.2300.himawari-8.vis.94P.INVEST.25kts.1003mb.18.1S.168.5W.100pc.jpg
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