0908morakot

  輕度颱風  
編號：2101 ( 01 W )
名稱：杜鵑 ( Dujuan )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期        ：2021 年 02 月 13 日 08 時
JMA升格熱低日期：2021 年 02 月 16 日 20 時
CWB編號日期　  ：2021 年 02 月 17 日 08 時
命名日期　　       ：2021 年 02 月 18 日 14 時
停編日期　　       ：2021 年 02 月 23 日 02 時
登陸地點　　 　  ： 菲律賓

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局  (CWB)：23 m/s ( 9 級 )
日本氣象廳  (JMA) ：20 m/s ( 40 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：45 kts ( TS )
菲律賓大氣地球物理和天文服務管理局  (PAGASA) ：95 km/h
海平面最低氣壓： 990 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　： 80 公里
十級風半徑　　： --- 公里

  過去路徑圖  



  擾動編號資料  
91W.INVEST.15kts.1006mb.5N.142.5E


以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、PAGASA、颱風論壇整理製作

dom

今年西太第二擾，數值有些微反應

dom

JTWC06Z評級Low

  (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 71W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.9N
142.5E, APPROXIMATELY 380 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 130334Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS DISORGANIZED BANDING WITH FLARING CONVECTION
IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO A WEAK, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST
91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD WESTWARD AND NORTHWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL TRACK WESTWARD WITH
POSSIBLE CONSOLIDATION OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

從91W目前的風場看來，距離發展成旋還需要有很長的一段路要走

感覺這次91W編擾動跟評級的時間都有點早，到了現在91W的窩度甚至都還只是黃色的

可能JTWC是看到數值反應明顯吧

t02436

評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 6.0N 139.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.7N 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY 217
NM SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
142357Z METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE PASS REVEALS DISORGANIZED BANDING
WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING INTO A
WEAK LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 142243Z ASCAT-A PASS
INDICATES AN ELONGATED LLCC WITH 15-20KT WINDS WITH A RELATIVELY
SMALL AREA OF 20-25KT WINDS IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES INVEST 91W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
POTENTIAL TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT WITH FAIR NORTHWESTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 91W WILL
TRACK WESTWARD WITH POSSIBLE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

晚間風場依舊偏弱,不過在渦度圖上可以看到系統已經逐漸趨於成熟
數值反應依舊明顯,但預報強度挺尷尬,尚不確定是否能成颱

dom

ECMWF新報與系集支持其發展，巔峰993
而GFS與HWRF依舊上望TS
91W前方風切仍然很大
日本氣象廳有紀錄以來 2/17 00:00至2/19 18:00有一段空窗期
其中二月這段時間沒有颱風生成
還有2月首台 即2月份出產該年度第一個颱風對上一次是34年前1986Judy
記錄上只有幾次 1953Irma, 1959Ruby, 1962Fran, 1967Ruby, 1976Lorna
如果91W能獲JMA命名還在2/17-2/19期間的話 就能兩連突破歷史了

dom

JMA維持LPA，預測+48h增強為TD