周子堯@FB

JTWC還是在12Z升評Medium，型態持續整合轉好，惟中心仍稍顯狹長，預估未來24-48小時是成旋關鍵

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1S 179.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 179.8E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING
A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 080958Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ALONG THE NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS AND CONTAINS 30-35 KTS WINDS IN THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE ELONGATED
CIRCULATION REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK (10-15 KTS). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET
SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING
ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH SUBSEQUENT CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

dom

JTWC12Z升格TD

92P INVEST 210208 1200 16.9S 179.8E SHEM 25 1003

dom

JTWC1500Z發佈TCFA

WTPS21 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.0S 179.5E TO 22.6S 179.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AND SYNOPTIC DATA AT 081430Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 179.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.1S 179.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.9S 179.8E, APPROXIMATELY
145 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING
A BROAD AREA OF LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 080958Z ASCAT-B PASS REVEALS
THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED ALONG THE NORTH-SOUTH
AXIS AND CONTAINS 30-35 KTS WINDS IN THE CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY, ALTHOUGH THE WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
ELONGATED CIRCULATION REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK (10-15 KTS).
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY MODERATE (15-20 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM.
NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE CONVERGING ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK
WITH SUBSEQUENT CONSOLIDATION INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
999 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091500Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

正逐漸通過斐濟東方近海,其型態已明顯轉好
JTWC18Z定強30節,距離升格為20P僅一步之遙;FMS亦持續看好成旋,預報+12H升格澳式C1

92P INVEST 210208 1800 19.2S 179.7W SHEM 30 1000

dom

FMS新報轉向稍不看好命名

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A5 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 090120 UTC.  TROPICAL DEPRESSION TD09F CENTER [996HPA] WAS ANALYSED NEAR 19.3S 179.4W AT 090000UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERY REPORTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS UP TO 30 KNOTS NEAR THE CENTRE.  DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.  EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 265 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM TD09F CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.   DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF EXPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION POOR. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. DEPRESSION IS STEERED TO THE SOUTH BY THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN, WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO ABOUT 70 NAUTICAL MILES YIELDING DT=2.0, MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.0/2.5/D0.5/24HRS.  FORECASTS: AT 12 HRS VALID AT 091200UTC 21.7S 178.8W MOV SSE AT 12 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 100000UTC 24.6S 178.1W MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE  OUTLOOK:  AT 36 HRS VALID AT 101200UTC 27.8S 177.1W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 110000UTC 31.1S 175.7W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE   THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TD09F WILL BE ISSUED AT 090800UTC OR EARLIER.

dom

JTWC06Z定強仍維持30節，正在加速向南移動，就看未來幾報能否混個編號

92P INVEST 210209 0600 20.3S 179.3W SHEM 30 1000

dom

FMS不再看好其能有所發展

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A7 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 091354 UTC.  TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F CENTRE 996HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.5S 178.5W AT 091200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND VIS IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 30 KNOTS.DEPRESSION MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UP TO 35 KNOTS WITHIN 60 TO 265 NAUTICAL MILES AWAY FROM TD09F CENTRE IN THE SECTOR FROM NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST TO SOUTHEAST.   DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE EAST OF EXPOSED LLCC. ORGANISATION POOR. THE SYSTEM LIES TO THE EAST OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. DEPRESSION IS STEERED TO THE SOUTH BY THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT WITH NO FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THE POTENTIAL FOR TD09F TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW.  DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEARED PATTERN, WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO ABOUT 50 NAUTICAL MILES YIELDING DT=2.5, MET AND PT AGREE. THUS, YIELDING T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24HRS.    FORECASTS : AT 12 HRS VALID AT 100000 UTC 24.3S 177.7W MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 24 HRS VALID AT 101200 UTC 27.3S 176.9W MOV SSE AT 14 KT WITH 30 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE  OUTLOOK : AT 36 HRS VALID AT 110000 UTC 30.3S 175.7W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE AT 48 HRS VALID AT 111200 UTC 33.1S 174.0W MOV SSE AT 15 KT WITH 25 KT CLOSE TO CENTRE  THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09F.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC12ZT2.5,SSDT3.0,照往例JTWC應可升格了,但就...不知道為何沒升

TPPS10 PGTW 091227

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 92P (S OF FIJI)

B. 09/1200Z

C. 21.20S

D. 178.76W

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T2.5/2.5/D0.5/18HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN SHEARED 52NM FROM LLCC
YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   MARTIN

TXPS27 KNES 091202
TCSWSP

A.  TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92P)

B.  09/1130Z

C.  21.1S

D.  179.6W

E.  THREE/GOES-W

F.  T3.0/3.0

G.  IR/EIR/SWIR/AMSU

H.  REMARKS...A LLCC <3/4 DEG FROM A COLD OVERCAST YIELDS A DT OF 2.5. MET
AND PT ARE 3.0 AND FT IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT POSITION
OF LLCC.

I.  ADDL POSITIONS

    09/0935Z 20.5S 179.6W AMSU


...MLEVINE