老農民版夜神月

目前的環境已明顯不利其發展,將持續減弱並以不慢的速度南移
對於15P.Ana來說就看還能維持TC的強度多久了
JTWC認為36H內即將轉化為副熱帶氣旋,FMS則認為還能維持澳式C1+60H

WTPS31 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 011//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 011   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011200Z --- NEAR 22.7S 180.0E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 240 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            195 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 180.0E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 24.2S 178.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 26.2S 176.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 140 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   030000Z --- 28.6S 174.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
011500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 179.6W.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
290 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 011206Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT
A BROAD, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED
TO THE EAST. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 45 KNOTS BASED ON
A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T3.0/3.5 (45/55 KNOTS) AND A KNES ESTIMATE
OF T3.0/3.0 (45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (30-35 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT, OFFSET BY
ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 15P IS FORECAST TO ACCELERATE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR
TAU 12 AS IT BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
TROUGH. AFTER TAU 12, THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
TROUGH WITH INCREASING VWS (35-40 KNOTS) AND COOLER SST VALUES (25-
24C). TC 15P SHOULD COMPLETE SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36 AS A
GALE-FORCE LOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P
(LUCAS) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A19 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 011503 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCCLONE ANA CENTRE 980HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4S
178.4W AT 011200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT
ABOUT 20 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 200 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT

AND WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH LLCC EMBEDDED. TC ANA IS
MOVING INTO AREA OF HIGH SHEAR. TC ANA WEAKENING AND IS EXPECTED TO
BE STEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK ANALYSIS
BASED ON EMBEDDED CENTRE IN MG YIELDING DT=3.5, MET=3.5. PT=3.5. FT
BASED ON PT. THUS DVORAK T3.5/3.5/W1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 25.0S 176.9W MOV SE AT 10 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 26.9S 175.1W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 030000 UTC 28.9S 173.1W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 45 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 031200 UTC 30.7S 170.9W MOV SE AT 12 KT WITH 40 KT
CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 012000 UTC.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC於01/21Z發布Final Warning

WTPS31 PGTW 012100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 012//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA) WARNING NR 012   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   011800Z --- NEAR 23.1S 179.6E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 245 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            185 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 23.1S 179.6E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   020600Z --- 24.9S 178.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 23.5S 179.9W.
01FEB21. TROPICAL CYCLONE 15P (ANA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF TONGA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT
08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS SHEARED 150+
NM SOUTHEASTWARD FROM A GROSSLY ELONGATED, EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). ADDITIONALLY, A STEADY STREAM OF LOW LEVEL
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD LINES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR, ARE WRAPPING
INTO THE LLC. MOST RECENT WIND ANALYSIS INDICATES THE MAXIMUM WINDS
ARE MORE THAN 60NM AWAY FROM THE LLCC. TC ANA HAS BECOME SUBTROPICAL
AND NO LONGER MEETS JTWC WARNING CRITERIA. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING
ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE
SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z IS 20 FEET. REFER TO TROPICAL
CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WARNINGS (WTPS33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

結果FMS於凌晨剛出的新報馬上倒戈,直接判定15P.Ana已成為前熱帶氣旋
搞得上一報的72小時內仍維持澳式C1的預報有點變成笑話了...

GALE WARNING 013 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 012104 UTC.

LOW PRESSURE L [987HPA] FORMER TROPICAL CYCLONE ANA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 23.8S
178.5W. POSITION POOR. LOW PRESSURE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL
MILES OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEAST SECTOR OVER WATERS ONLY.

EXPECT CLOCKWISE WINDS UPTO 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS WITHIN 240 NAUTICAL
MILES OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SECTOR FROM SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST TO WEST.


AREA OF GALES MOVING WITH THE LOW.

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING NUMBER 007.

dom

已逐漸轉化成副熱帶氣旋

sh152021 ANA 20210202 1800 -26.2 -174.0 P SS 45 989

(1) AT 012100Z THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 15P) WAS
LOCATED NEAR 23.5S 179.9W, AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.2S 174.0W,
APPROXIMATELY 294 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TONGA. THE SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL STORM, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED
AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH AN AREA OF CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST. A 022135Z GMI 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS A WELL-
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS IN A
HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY HIGH (50-70 KT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND COOL (25C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). THE
SYSTEM IS ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUTE TROUGH.
GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK
SOUTHEAST REMAIN AT ITS CURRENT INTENSITY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 989 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE
FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER
TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
SYSTEM TO TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

dom

JTWC0330Z撤評

ABPW10 PGTW 030330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/030330Z-030600ZFEB2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/030153ZFEB2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 03FEB21 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (LUCAS) WAS LOCATED
NEAR 21.9S 167.1E, APPROXIMATELY 57 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF NOUMEA, NEW
CALEDONIA, AND HAD TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 40 KNOTS
GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS33 PGTW 030300) FOR THE FINAL
WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS OF TC 17P) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 26.2S 174.0W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ISSUED FINAL WARNING FOR TC 17P
(LUCAS).//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

從型態上來看，今天早上的15P已經幾乎可以算是個溫帶氣旋了
話又說回來JTWC評級6個小時随即又撤評到底是在...