霧峰追風者

  強烈熱帶風暴  
編號：06-20202021 ( 08 S )
名稱：Danilo

  基本資料     
擾動編號日期：2020 年 12 月 29 日 07 時
JTWC升格日期:2021 年 01 月 02 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2021 年 01 月 01 日 20 時
撤編日期　　：2021 年 01 月 12 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
法國留尼旺氣象局 (MFR) ：55 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：70 kt ( TY )
海平面最低氣壓：983 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
96S.INVEST.15kts-992mb-10.3S-71.3E
以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Low

  (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 10.4S
70.5E, APPROXIMATELY 214 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 291336Z SSMIS 91GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT DISORGANIZED BANDING WRAPPING INTO A POORLY
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION IN
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. INVEST 96S IS IN A MODERATELY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WESTWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, STRONG TO MODERATE (20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL SLOWLY TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級提升至Medium

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.4S 70.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.0S 72.6E, APPROXIMATELY 287
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 301424Z MHS 89 GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING
CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 301626Z ASCAT-C IMAGE SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
CIRCULATION WITH 25-30 KNOT WINDS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE.
INVEST 96S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL SLOWLY
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

大概是由於其最新風場掃描結果實在是不錯,JTWC18Z升格TD

96S INVEST 201230 1800 12.3S 72.4E SHEM 25 1004

dom

MFR編號擾動區第6號，認為後期被93S吞併

老農民版夜神月

MFR改為支持96S發展

老農民版夜神月

JTWC0300Z發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 120 NM RADIUS OF 12.2S 72.6E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 010000Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 72.6E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.9S 72.5E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2S 72.6E, APPROXIMATELY 288
NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 010159Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT
CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
INVEST 96S IS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH WESTWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96S WILL REMAIN
QUASI-STATIONARY BEFORE SLOWLY TRACKING TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS AND MAY BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH INVEST 93S. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
020300Z.
//
NNNN

dom

MFR將其升格為熱帶低氣壓，持續上望熱帶氣旋