老農民版夜神月

  熱帶低壓  
編號：03 U ( 94 S )
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2020 年 12 月 17 日 16 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 12 月 22 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
澳洲氣象局 (BoM)：25 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：25 kt
海平面最低氣壓   ：1002 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
94S.INVEST.15kts.1001mb.11.5S.131.5E

以上資料來自：BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

系集對於位於澳北的94S有些微的反應

老農民版夜神月

JTWC1800Z評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) IS LOCATED NEAR 13.5S
128.2E, APPROXIMATELY 197 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 181256Z MHS
METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION SHEARED ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE. A RECENT 181141Z ASCAT-A IMAGE REVEALS
10-15 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC WITH 20-25 KNOT CONVERGENT
WESTERLY WINDS. INVEST 94S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD
OUTFLOW, AND LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT SHOWING INVEST 94S WILL
SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE AUSTRALIAN COAST, WHICH WILL HINDER DEVELOPMENT, BEFORE TURNING
MORE INLAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC升格TD但已將其定位於澳洲陸地上

94S INVEST 201219 1800 17.2S 124.5E SHEM 25 1000

老農民版夜神月

JTWC取消評級

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.7S 125.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

老農民版夜神月

BoM編號03U

A tropical low (03U) lies over the southeast Kimberley at 1300 WST Monday 21 December. It is forecast to be relatively slow moving over the next 24 hours before beginning to move west. By later in the day on Tuesday the low is likely to start weakening. Over the remainder of the week, the low is expected to dissipate over the Kimberley as it slowly tracks west on Wednesday and Thursday. It is possible the remnants of this low will move offshore from the Kimberley coast on Thursday or Friday and track west offshore from the Pilbara, however it is not forecast to strengthen or reach tropical cyclone intensity.

Heavy rainfall has been observed and is continuing across the Kimberley as a result of 03U and monsoonal flow across the north of the State. A Severe Weather Warning for heavy rainfall and damaging winds is current, as are Flood Watches and Warnings. Refer to http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for latest information.


Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Tuesday:Very Low
Wednesday:Very Low
Thursday:Very Low