老農民版夜神月

  特強氣旋風暴  
編號：ARB 04  ( 03 A )
名稱：Gati

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2020 年 11 月 20 日 09 時
JTWC升格日期:2020 年 11 月 22 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2020 年 11 月 22 日 15 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 00 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：索馬利亞

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 (IMD)：75 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：100 kt ( TY )
海平面最低氣壓   ：964 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
95A.INVEST.15kts-998mb-12.5N-63.6E

以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

95A是位於94A東北方的新編號擾動，從最新的預報看來發展有可能會後來居上
型態與風場目前看來並不差，但數值並不是那麼的看好，能否成旋仍在未定之天

老農民版夜神月

JTWC1800Z評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 11.2N 62.7E, APPROXIMATELY 518 NM EAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 201202Z SSMIS F-16 91H IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. 95A HAS BECOME THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION OVER 94A WHICH HAS NOW BEEN DOWNGRADED TO AN INVEST ONLY INVEST 95A IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND GOOD WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95A WILL CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC0200Z提升評級至Medium
並於20/18Z升格其為TD,00Z定強30KT

IO, 95, 2020112012,   , BEST,   0, 112N,  627E,  20, 1005, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,  170,  30,   0,   0,   A,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
IO, 95, 2020112018,   , BEST,   0, 110N,  617E,  25, 1006, TD,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  170,  30,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
IO, 95, 2020112100,   , BEST,   0, 110N,  603E,  30, 1003, TD,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1007,   50,  25,   0,   0,   A,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.0N 56.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.9N 60.5E, APPROXIMATELY 340
NM EAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY AND A 202350Z
SSMI F-15 85HZ PASS DEPICTS IMPROVING CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
ASSOCIATED WITH A DEVELOPING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC).
INVEST 95A IS EMBEDDED WITHIN IN A LARGE AREA OF MONSOON TROUGHING,
WITH TWO ADDITIONAL CIRCULATIONS (INVESTS 94A AND 96A). INVEST 95A
APPEARS TO HAVE THE MOST FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, AND IS BECOMING THE
DOMINANT CIRCULATION. THERE IS CURRENTLY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT
PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW. LOW (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND 27
DEGREE CELSIUS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95A WILL CONTINUE A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRACK
WITH STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

dom

JTWC發佈TCFA

WTIO21 PGTW 210800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95A)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.0N 59.5E TO 11.0N 52.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 210600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 59.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.9N 60.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 59.3E, APPROXIMATELY 323
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SOCOTRA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES LOW LEVEL CLOUD LINES WRAPPING INTO A PARTIALLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 210621Z METOP-B 89GHZ
SATELLITE IMAGE REVEALS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. A 210504Z ASCAT-A PASS REVEALS 30-35KT WINDS
IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE WITH 15-20KT WINDS IN THE SOUTHERN
SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 95A IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM
(27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 95A
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
220800Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

最新風場掃描顯示LLCC已明顯閉合，惟中心附近風力仍然偏弱

老農民版夜神月

IMD編號ARB 04

ARB/04/2020
Dated: 21.11.2020
WELL MARKED LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTHWEST ARABIAN SEA AND NEIGHBOURHOOD

老農民版夜神月

JTWC18Z升格03A

IO, 03, 2020112118, , BEST, 0, 108N, 556E, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 30, 65, 1008, 100, 20, 0, 0, A, 0, , 0, 0, THREE, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, TRANSITIONED, ioB52020 to io032020,