周子堯@FB

  強烈颱風  
編號：2019 ( 22 W )
名稱： 天鵝 ( Goni )


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期　    ： 2020 年 10 月 22 日 02 時
JMA升格熱低日期： 2020 年 10 月 27 日 20 時
CWB編號日期       ：2020 年 10 月 27 日 20 時
命名日期　            ：2020 年 10 月 29 日 02 時
停編日期　　　     ：2020 年 11 月 06 日 02 時
登陸地點　　　     ：菲律賓 卡坦瑞內斯省
　　　     　　　     　　　   南甘馬仁省

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
中央氣象局  (CWB)：65 m/s ( 17 級 )
日本氣象廳  (JMA) ：60 m/s ( 120 kt )
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：170 kts ( Cat.5 )
菲律賓大氣地球物理和天文服務管理局  (PAGASA) ：225 km/h
海平面最低氣壓： 888 百帕
暴風圈半徑
七級風半徑　　： 200 公里
十級風半徑　　： 80  公里

  其他資訊  


  突破紀錄  
一、21世紀以來強度排名並列第一位。
二、CWB給出中心氣壓888百帕，為30年來氣壓最低。
三、從輕颱增強到強颱只花36小時，創下史上最快增強紀錄。
四、JMA Dvorak Technique第四個分析達到CI8.0的颱風。

  過去路徑圖   - 來源：維基百科


  擾動編號資料  
99W.INVEST.15kts-1009mb-11.0N-163.0E



以上資料來自：CWB、JMA、JTWC、PAGASA、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

GFS 數值預測靠近台灣東南海域。

霧峰追風者

GFS 數值最新一報上望948百帕，並通過呂宋島進入南海。

霧峰追風者

JTWC 06Z評級Low。

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5N
156.1E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230251Z ASMR2 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A WEAK,
INDISTINCT CIRCULATION WITH SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION. A 232335Z
ASCAT PASS SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION. INVEST 99W IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) BUT DECREASING VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 99W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
WITH SLOW BUT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

晚間風場圖顯示99W目前結構仍較為散亂
不過數值系集對於其後期發展有不錯的訊號


（系集中位於遠洋，較右側的系統，左側為98W）

dom

JMA預測一天後TD，兩大數值也支持過菲後有所發展

老農民版夜神月

JMA升格TD
99W未來的路徑走向趨勢依然和最近幾個颱風類似，走通過菲中群島後再登越南路線

霧峰追風者

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12N 140E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 141.5E, APPROXIMATELY 224 NM
NORTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 260012Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION IN THE VICINITY OF THE
LLC. FURTHERMORE, THE WIND FIELD DEPICTED IN A 262351Z ASCAT-B PASS
DEPICTS WEAK (5-10 KTS) WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SYSTEM CENTER, AND STRONGER (25-30 KTS) WINDS PRESENT ALONG THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY. INVEST 99W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, WARM (30 TO 31
CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-
15KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WITH MINIMAL INTENSIFICATION.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.