老農民版夜神月

  熱帶低壓  
編號：BOB 03  ( 93 B )
名稱：無


  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2020 年 10 月 21 日 10 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 10 月 24 日 03 時
登陸地點　　：印度 西孟加拉邦

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印度氣象局 (IMD)：25 kt
聯合颱風警報中心(JTWC)：25 kt ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓   ：1000 百帕

  擾動編號資料  
93B.INVEST.15kts-1000mb-16N.88E

以上資料來自：IMD、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

king111807

JTWC評級Low

ABIO10 PGTW 211430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/211430Z-211800ZOCT2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
18.1N 86.3E, APPROXIMATELY 284 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF
FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A
211216Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DISORGANIZED AREA
OF FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD THE LLC. 93B IS CURRENTLY IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5 TO 15
KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 93B WILL
TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD; HOWEVER, MODELS DISAGREE ON THE LEVEL OF
INTENSIFICATION EXPECTED FOR 93B. NAVGEM AND ECMWF SHOW 93B REACHING
WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA .1B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

目前位於印度東岸的93B還是有比較明顯的季風低壓屬性
在其北上登陸恆河三角洲前有小幅的發展空間

Heigo

IMD:BOB 03

老農民版夜神月

JTWC12Z升格TD

IO, 93, 2020102206, , BEST, 0, 179N, 867E, 20, 1002, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1006, 110, 40, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,
IO, 93, 2020102212, , BEST, 0, 189N, 874E, 25, 1001, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1003, 135, 40, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, ,

Heigo

即將登陸恆河三角洲，不再上望DD

老農民版夜神月

JTWC及IMD當前對於93B的定位有些誤差，IMD06Z已經直接定在海岸邊
JTWC則認定其距離陸地仍有一些距離

IMD06Z報文，判定以25KT強度觸陸


JTWC06Z定位

老農民版夜神月

JTWC亦判定已登陸，1800Z撤評

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 18.1N 86.4E HAS NOW MOVED OVER LAND AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.