霧峰追風者

風眼隱現，強度提升至60kts。

老農民版夜神月

風眼開啟，NHC03Z升格C1，新報預測24H後將達巔峰75節

849
WTNT42 KNHC 210236
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number   8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Tue Oct 20 2020

The tropical cyclone has continued to become better organized on
satellite images this evening, with the Central Dense Overcast
becoming increasingly symmetric.  Also the eye, which was
intermittently apparent earlier in the evening, has become better
defined.  Epsilon is being upgraded to a hurricane, consistent with
a Dvorak intensity estimate from SAB.  This is the tenth hurricane
of the season.

Epsilon is moving northwestward, or around 310/11 kt, but beginning
to turn more toward a west-northwestward heading.  The hurricane is
expected to move generally west-northwestward on Wednesday in
response to a mid-level high pressure system to its north and
northwest.  In a couple of days, the high is forecast to shift
eastward and this should cause Epsilon to turn toward the
north-northwest and pass to the east of Bermuda, with the center
coming closest to the island in around 48 hours.  In 3 to 4
days, the  hurricane should turn northward and move through a break
in the subtropical ridge.  By the end of the forecast period, the
system should accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward as it
begins to move into the higher-latitude westerlies.  The official
forecast track is very close to both the previous NHC prediction
and the corrected multi-model dynamical consensus.

Delta is expected to strengthen some more as it moves over
marginally warm waters and within an environment of moderate
vertical shear during the next day or so.  In 36 to 48 hours, the
oceanic heat content below the cyclone is expected to become very
low which should limit further intensification.  The official
intensity forecast is a little above the latest model consensus.  
By day 5, the global models show the cyclone interacting and
merging with a frontal zone so the system will likely be
extratropical by that time.


Key Message:

1. Epsilon is forecast to remain at hurricane strength by the time
it makes its closest approach to Bermuda late Thursday.  While
it is too soon to determine the exact details of Epsilon's track
and intensity near the island, tropical storm conditions are
possible on Bermuda beginning Thursday with dangerous surf
conditions also likely.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/0300Z 28.5N  56.8W   65 KT  75 MPH
12H  21/1200Z 29.2N  58.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  22/0000Z 29.9N  59.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
36H  22/1200Z 31.0N  60.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
48H  23/0000Z 32.2N  61.1W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  23/1200Z 33.5N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  24/0000Z 34.6N  62.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  25/0000Z 38.4N  58.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  26/0000Z 44.0N  45.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

老農民版夜神月

發展已超乎NHC預期,經實測後支持,18Z上調定強至95節,中心氣壓959百帕

000
WTNT42 KNHC 211742
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Special Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
200 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found that Hurricane Epsilon
is significantly stronger than was previously analyzed. A blend of
the flight-level and surface wind data supports an intensity of 95
kt. The intensity forecast has been adjusted upward during the first
12-24 h to account for this new data. It is possible that Epsilon
could strengthen a little more and become a major hurricane later
today before conditions become less conducive tomorrow.

No changes were made to the track forecast at this time.

Key Messages:

1.  Tropical storm conditions are expected on Bermuda beginning
later today and continuing intermittently through late Thursday,
when Epsilon is forecast to make its closest approach east of the
island. A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for Bermuda.

2. Dangerous surf and rip currents are likely occurring along the
coasts of Bermuda, the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the
Leeward Islands.  These conditions are expected to spread to
portions of the east coast of the United States and Atlantic Canada
during the next couple of days.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/1800Z 29.4N  59.7W   95 KT 110 MPH
12H  22/0000Z 29.6N  60.1W   95 KT 110 MPH
24H  22/1200Z 30.9N  60.8W   90 KT 105 MPH
36H  23/0000Z 32.3N  61.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
48H  23/1200Z 33.7N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
60H  24/0000Z 35.0N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  24/1200Z 36.6N  60.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  25/1200Z 42.0N  51.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  26/1200Z 49.5N  33.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Blake

老農民版夜神月

NHC速報升格MH,定強100節，中心氣壓955百帕

27L EPSILON 201021 1800  29.4N   59.7W ATL   100   955

老農民版夜神月

NHC判定巔峰由21/18Z開始維持到至22/03Z左右，中心最低氣壓出現於00Z,952百帕。22/06Z開始已逐漸減弱

AL, 27, 2020102118,   , BEST,   0, 294N,  597W, 100,  955, HU,  64, NEQ,   20,   15,   15,   20, 1012,  300,   5, 120,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,    EPSILON, D, 12, NEQ,  750,  390,  510,  480, genesis-num, 062,
AL, 27, 2020102200,   , BEST,   0, 295N,  604W, 100,  952, HU,  34, NEQ,  360,  120,  120,  300, 1012,  280,   5, 120,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,    EPSILON, D, 12, NEQ,  720,  360,  450,  480, genesis-num, 062,

AL, 27, 2020102206,   , BEST,   0, 304N,  605W,  95,  955, HU,  34, NEQ,  270,  200,  120,  270, 1013,  315,   5, 115,   0,   L,   0,    ,   0,   0,    EPSILON, D,  0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, genesis-num, 062,

000
WTNT42 KNHC 220241
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 PM AST Wed Oct 21 2020

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 29.6N  60.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
12H  22/1200Z 30.5N  61.4W  100 KT 115 MPH
24H  23/0000Z 31.8N  61.9W   95 KT 110 MPH
36H  23/1200Z 33.2N  62.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
48H  24/0000Z 34.9N  62.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
60H  24/1200Z 36.9N  61.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
72H  25/0000Z 39.2N  58.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
96H  26/0000Z 46.5N  42.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  27/0000Z 56.0N  25.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

凌晨巔峰時底層
下午底層

老農民版夜神月

NHC認定27L.Epsilon21Z強度已從昨日同時間的100節逐步減弱至75節
並在21Z新報中預測其將維持C1強度直至消亡

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/2100Z 31.9N  61.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  23/0600Z 33.0N  61.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  23/1800Z 34.8N  61.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
36H  24/0600Z 36.8N  61.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  24/1800Z 39.0N  59.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
60H  25/0600Z 42.2N  53.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
72H  25/1800Z 46.5N  45.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
96H  26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

老農民版夜神月

將逐漸變性為溫帶氣旋

543
WTNT42 KNHC 241459
TCDAT2

Hurricane Epsilon Discussion Number  23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL272020
1100 AM AST Sat Oct 24 2020

The appearance of Epsilon has changed little since early this
morning, with satellite images revealing an eye feature embedded in
a small area of deep convection, while a much larger comma-shaped
pattern extends several hundred miles to the north of the center. A
drifting buoy array that was placed ahead of the hurricane has
provided useful information on the intensity of Epsilon. At 1100
UTC, a buoy located very near the center of the cyclone reported a
pressure of 957.6 mb. This pressure was much lower than the previous
estimated pressure of 972 mb, which was made without the
availability of the buoy data. Therefore, it is likely that Epsilon
was a stronger hurricane last night. Based on this data, the initial
intensity has been adjusted upward to 70 kt, and this value could
still be conservative based on typical high-latitude pressure-wind
relationships.

Epsilon has made its anticipated turn to the northeast and is now
moving at 050/11 kt. The cyclone should begin accelerating toward
the northeast later today in the mid-latitude westerlies, reaching a
forward motion of about 40 kt to the northeast or east-northeast by
Sunday evening. This fast motion is expected to continue through
early next week. The NHC track forecast is essentially unchanged
from the previous one, and is in good agreement with the tightly
clustered track guidance.

The cyclone is forecast to move over waters of about 24-26 degrees C
for the next 12 h or so, while encountering cooler temperatures
aloft. This should allow Epsilon to maintain its current intensity
today. After 12 h, the water temperatures below the cyclone are
expected to decrease below 20 degrees C, while the system interacts
with an mid- to upper-level trough. These factors should cause the
inner-core convection to dissipate while the system transitions to a
large and powerful extratropical cyclone sometime on Sunday. This
cyclone is then expected to merge with a larger extratropical low
over the far northern Atlantic by late Monday or Tuesday. That low
pressure system will likely produce hazardous conditions over
portions of far North Atlantic through the middle of next week.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/1500Z 37.9N  60.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
12H  25/0000Z 39.7N  57.6W   70 KT  80 MPH
24H  25/1200Z 42.8N  51.1W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  26/0000Z 46.7N  41.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  26/1200Z 50.9N  30.1W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H  27/0000Z 55.6N  21.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  27/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Latto

dom

NHC26/0300Z認為已經轉化為POST-TROPICAL Cyclone

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  26/0300Z 48.6N  38.8W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H  26/1200Z 52.1N  30.3W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  27/0000Z 57.0N  24.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  27/1200Z...ABSORBED

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Zelinsky