老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號               ：95 W
擾動編號日期 ：2020 年 10 月 16 日 09 時
撤編日期        ：2020 年 10 月 17 日 21 時
95W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-13.0N-112.0E

老農民版夜神月

JTWC換編號後將定位向南調整了三個緯度,大約就是渦度圖上南海西南部那個泛紅的位置

94W INVEST 201016 0000 16.2N 112.4E WPAC 20 1004
95W INVEST 201016 0000 13.0N 112.0E WPAC 15 0

周子堯@FB

兩者應為不同系統!JMA判斷TD之系統應該還是原為94W，CWB亦同!
如圖 : 南北各一渦旋、且95W亦無94W過去路徑數據，故不為同一系統!

JMA:00Z TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1004 HPA AT 16N 112E WNW 20 KT.

JTWC:01Z 95W.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-13.0N.112.0E

老農民版夜神月

周子堯@FB 發表於 2020-10-16 12:53
兩者應為不同系統!JMA判斷TD之系統應該還是原為94W，CWB亦同!
如圖 : 南北各一渦旋、且95W亦無94W過去路徑 ...

剛特別從資料庫裡翻出JTWC95W的官方報文

WP, 95, 2020101512,   , BEST,   0, 124N, 1096E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
WP, 95, 2020101518,   , BEST,   0, 127N, 1108E,  15, 1005, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,
WP, 95, 2020101600,   , BEST,   0, 130N, 1120E,  15, 1010, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,    0,   0,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST,  ,

後再對比94W的報文

WP, 94, 2020101512,   , BEST,   0, 152N, 1170E,  20, 1005, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1008,  185,  30,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
WP, 94, 2020101518,   , BEST,   0, 157N, 1151E,  20, 1004, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1006,  230,  25,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,
WP, 94, 2020101600,   , BEST,   0, 162N, 1124E,  20, 1004, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1006,  230,  25,   0,   0,   W,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,

經查證
兩者無論從定位與定強看都完全不同，因此可以確定並非同一個系統。
基於上述理由，95W確是JTWC編的新系統，並非原本之94W
周子堯@FB所說的基本無誤

老農民版夜神月

JTWC0730Z評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
13.5N 111.4E, APPROXIMATELY 239 NM SOUTHEAST OF DANANG VIETNAM.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, SUPPORTED BY A 160605Z
AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICTS A BROAD LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC) LARGELY DEVOID OF OVERHEAD DEEP CONVECTION, WITH
FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY BEING SHEARED
TO THE SOUTH. A 160046Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A VERY WEAK, BROAD
LLC WITH SWATHS OF 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE NORTH AND SOUTH
PERIPHERY. 95W IS CURRENTLY IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND WARM (28 TO 29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE BROAD LLC WILL GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE,
POTENTIALLY REACHING WARNING THRESHOLD IN THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

dom

JTWC撤評

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.6N 109.8E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.