ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR/HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE
/INDIAN/OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZOCT2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 15.3N
86.8E, APPROXIMATELY 246 NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 111248Z 91GHZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOW A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION THAT IS CURRENTLY OBSCURED BY
FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. FURTHERMORE, AN 111143Z
89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING TO THE NORTH
WRAPPING INTO THE SYSTEM. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91B IS IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (<15 KTS), AND WARM SST (30-31C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS IT SLOWLY
INTENSIFIES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.3N 86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 86.3E, APPROXIMATELY 205
NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 120123Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS INVEST 91B IS IN A
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A LIMITED
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER WATER WITH LANDFALL NEAR 130000Z; HOWEVER,
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY CONSOLIDATE AS IT APPROACHES THE
COAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.3N 86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 82.6E, APPROXIMATELY 106
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 1212354Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE DEPICT A POCKET OF FLARING CONVECTION TO THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 121613Z ASCAT-B PASS
REVEALS A RAGGED AND ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SWATHS OF
20-25 KT WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST, WITH A FEW 30-KT WIND
BARBS UNDER THE CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS INVEST 91B
IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
MINIMAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OVER WATER WITH IMMINENT
LANDFALL NEAR 130000Z. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 999 MB. DUE TO IMMINENT LANDFALL AND THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
ABIO10 PGTW 131300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/131300Z-131800ZOCT2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.0N 127.9S HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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