1. Showers and thunderstorms continue to gradually become better
organized in association with an elongated area of low pressure
located more than 1000 miles southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula. Further development of this system is
possible and a tropical depression could form during the next few
days while it moves slowly northwestward at about 5 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
1. A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next few days while the low drifts
north-northwestward through Thursday and then turns westward by
Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
WTPN21 PHNC 081000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 125.4W TO 16.2N 128.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 080600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 14.0N 125.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 18
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.0N 125.8W, APPROXIMATELY 1041 NM WESTSOUTH-WEST OF CABO SAN
LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
080546Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF WEAK CONVECTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 96E IS IN A FAVORABLE
AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NVGM, GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 96E WILL
SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. NVGM SHOWS 96E TRACKING GENERALLY NORTHWARD WITH STEADY
INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091000Z.//
NNNN
1. Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized as dry mid-level air
surrounds a small low pressure system located around 1000 miles
west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula. Environmental conditions are forecast to be only somewhat
conducive for development, but a tropical depression could still
form while the low moves toward the west or west-southwest at about
10 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
WTPN21 PHNC 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 96E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/080951ZOCT20//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 13.8N 125.4W TO 16.2N 128.9W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 090900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.7N 126.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.7N 126.9W, APPROXIMATELY 993 NM WESTSOUTH-WEST OF CABO SAN
LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
090526Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL
POCKET OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT INVEST 96E IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH
GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT
INVEST 96E WILL SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD WITH LITTLE INTENSIFICATION
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH.
THIS SUPERSEDES REF A.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
101000Z.//
NNNN
WTPN21 PHNC 100700
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CANCELLATION (INVEST 96E)//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/090951ZOCT2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PHNC
091000)//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 091000). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 96E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 126.9W, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 130.4W, APPROXIMATELY 1047 NM SOUTHWEST OF CABO
SAN LUCAS, MEXICO. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH WEAKENED
CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE SOUTH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
INVEST 96E HAS MOVED INTO AN AREA OF DRY AIR AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FURTHER. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96E WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD WITH LITTLE DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. IN THE VIEW OF THE
UNFAVORABLE FORECAST FOR THIS SYSTEM, IT IS NO LONGER CONSIDERED
SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.//
NNNN
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