老農民版夜神月

  熱帶風暴  
編號：16 E
名稱：Karina

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2020 年 09 月 11 日 03 時
命名日期　　：2020 年 09 月 13 日 17 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 09 月 17 日 14 時
登陸地點　　：無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速 ：35  kt( TS )
海平面最低氣壓 ：1004 百帕
  擾動編號資料  

92E.INVEST.15kts-1004mb-15N-110W

  NHC：40％

2. A broad area of low pressure located about 350 miles south-southwest
of the coast of southwestern Mexico continues to produce a large
area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week
while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

以上資料來自：NHC、颱風論壇整理製作

周子堯@FB

22/30ZJTWC發布TCFA,NHC亦上調評級至High

2. Another area of low pressure is located several hundred miles
south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. This system is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
well to the west of the center of the the low. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the weekend or early next week
while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph away from
the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high..70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.0N 106.9W, APPROXIMATELY 366 NM SOUTHEAST OF SOCORRO, MEXICO.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL VISIBLE IMAGERY AND A 112025Z AMSR2 89GHZ
IMAGE DEPICT AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FLARING
CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92E WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-
36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

老農民版夜神月

NHC展望已進一步提升至80%

2. Another area of low pressure is located several hundred miles
southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Associated shower and
thunderstorm activity has become more concentrated near the center
of the low today.  Environmental conditions appear conducive for
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the
next day or so while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high..80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

老農民版夜神月

NHC03Z升格16E，將逐漸朝西北方向移動，巔峰上望55KT

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 130238
TCDEP1

Tropical Depression Sixteen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162020
900 PM MDT Sat Sep 12 2020

The last few visible satellite images indicated convection growing
closer to the center of a low pressure area that NHC has been
tracking for the past few days.  Since the low was already
well-defined this afternoon, the development of organized deep
convection means that a tropical depression has formed.  The initial
wind speed is set to 30 kt, which is a blend of the TAFB/SAB fixes
and earlier ASCAT data.  The depression is embedded within a
moderate easterly wind-shear environment, partially related to its
position in the larger ITCZ/monsoon trough structure.  Global model
guidance is in reasonable agreement on the large-scale circulation
becoming focused on the new tropical cyclone and a slight relaxation
of the shear during the next couple of days.  This change should
lead to gradual intensification, and the new forecast is between the
model consensus and the corrected-consensus aids.  Beyond 2-3 days,
decreasing SSTs and increasing dry air entrainment should promote
weakening, and that is reflected below.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain northwestward or 315/08
kt.  A mid-level ridge is forecast to build westward, causing the
cyclone to move west-northwestward for a few days after the weekend.
A westward turn is forecast at long range due to the shallow
cyclone feeling the low-level ridge.  One big uncertainty with this
forecast is how it interacts with the larger ITCZ/monsoon trough
circulation, including the remnants of Invest 91E.  For now, it is
assumed that only a slight slow down occurs as the depression
becomes the dominant circulation in the area, and the forecast is
more consistent with the GFS- or UKMET-based guidance.  However, a
slower ECMWF-like solution is also possible, but is being given less
weight at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0300Z 16.7N 112.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
12H  13/1200Z 17.5N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
24H  14/0000Z 18.3N 115.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
36H  14/1200Z 18.9N 116.9W   45 KT  50 MPH
48H  15/0000Z 19.5N 118.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
60H  15/1200Z 20.0N 119.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  16/0000Z 20.5N 121.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  17/0000Z 21.5N 123.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  18/0000Z 21.5N 126.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

t02436

09Z命名Karina，巔峰上望55節。

ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number   2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162020
300 AM MDT Sun Sep 13 2020

Recent scatterometer data showed an area of 30-35 kt winds within
about 80 n mi of the center of Tropical Depression Sixteen-E in the
southwestern quadrant.  Based on this data, along with 35-40 kt
intensity estimates from TAFB and the CIMSS satellite consensus,
the depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Karina with an initial
intensity of 35 kt.  Satellite imagery show that the system is
still being affected by northeasterly vertical shear, with the
low-level center exposed to the northeast of the main convective
mass.

The initial motion is now 310/10.  The global models forecast a
mid-level ridge to build westward to the north of Karina in a day or
two, causing the cyclone to move west- northwestward.  A more
westward motion is expected near the end of the forecast period as a
weakening Karin is steered more by the low-level trade winds.  The
track guidance is in fair agreement with this scenario, although
there is some spread in the forward speed, possibly due differences
in how Karina interacts with the larger ITCZ/monsoon trough
circulation, including the remnants of Invest 91E.  The new forecast
track will follow the forward speed of the consensus models and has
only minor adjustments from the previous track.

The forecast track takes the center of Karin over cooler water,
with the system crossing the 25-26C isotherms in 48-72 h.  Present
indications are that the shear will decrease a little before the 72
h point, so the intensity forecast calls for gradual strengthening
during that time.  After 72 h, the cooler water and dry air
entrainment should cause weakening.  The new intensity forecast has
some minor adjustments from the previous forecast, and it is in
best agreement with the HCCA corrected consensus model and the
Florida State Superensemble.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  13/0900Z 17.4N 113.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  13/1800Z 18.1N 114.8W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  14/0600Z 18.8N 116.4W   45 KT  50 MPH
36H  14/1800Z 19.4N 118.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
48H  15/0600Z 19.9N 119.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
60H  15/1800Z 20.5N 120.7W   55 KT  65 MPH
72H  16/0600Z 21.2N 122.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
96H  17/0600Z 22.0N 124.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
120H  18/0600Z 22.0N 127.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

老農民版夜神月

中心已經裸露，即將減弱為殘餘低氣壓

000
WTPZ41 KNHC 161436
TCDEP1

Tropical Storm Karina Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP162020
800 AM PDT Wed Sep 16 2020

Very little deep convection with cloud tops of -40C remains this
morning, and what's left is located well to the west-northwest of
the center of circulation.  There could still be a few 35-kt winds
remaining in that particular area, which was identified earlier by
a scatterometer pass, so the initial intensity is held at a generous
35 kt for this advisory.  Karina is expected to continue traversing
cooler waters while moving farther into an inhibiting thermodynamic
environment and unfavorable upper-level winds.  Therefore, weakening
is forecast and Karina should degenerate to a remnant low tonight.

The initial motion is estimated to be northwestward, or 310/7 kt. A
turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later today and
the cyclone should continue on this general motion through
Thursday night.  A westward turn is forecast on Friday as Karina
degenerates to a remnant low and is steered by the low-level
tradewind flow.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/1500Z 22.6N 123.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  17/0000Z 23.2N 125.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H  17/1200Z 23.8N 126.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H  18/0000Z 24.0N 127.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  18/1200Z 23.9N 128.2W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H  19/0000Z 23.6N 129.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  19/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Roberts

。