簽到天數: 2141 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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周子堯@FB|2020-8-17 11:06
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JTWC 0330Z發布TCFA，預測將穿越巴士海峽
WTPN21 PGTW 170330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 99W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 19.0N 122.1E TO 20.8N 116.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 170000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 19.2N 121.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 18.4N
123.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 121.8E, APPROXIMATELY 215 NM NORTH OF
APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
162240Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE. A 170101Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS 20KT
WINDS EMBEDDED TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
A GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT AS 99W IS EXPERIENCING FAIR
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VWS (< 15KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (30-31C). MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. 
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