簽到天數: 3206 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
|
king111807|2020-8-8 15:14
|
顯示全部樓層
JTWC發佈TCFA
WTPN21 PGTW 072130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.7N 126.4E TO 25.6N 126.1E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 071800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.1N 126.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 16.2N 125.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 126.4E, APPROXIMATELY
282 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF APARRI, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS BUILDING DEEP CONVECTION OVERHEAD
A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION
SCATTERED TO THE EAST AND WEST. A 071716Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LLC. A 071309Z METOP-C PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS A SLIGHTLY
ELONGATED LLC WITH 15 TO 20 KNOTS WRAPPING AROUND AND A SMALL SWATH
OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OFFSET TO THE NORTHEAST. 94W IS CURRENTLY IN
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 TO 31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94W
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD WHILE INTENSIFYING, REMAINING
HIGHLY ASYMMETRIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
082130Z.//
NNNN
|
|
