ABIO10 PGTW 091000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN
/REISSUED/091000Z-091800ZJUL2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF
AFRICA) :
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95A) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
22.4N 67.2E, APPROXIMATELY 146 NM SOUTH OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 090854Z AMSR2 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A FULLY EXPOSED AND WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT CONTINUES TO HAVE SHEARED CONVECTION
TO THE WEST OF THE CENTER. A 090456Z ASCAT METOP-A SHOWS 30-35KT
WINDS OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN QUADRANT WITH 20-25KT
WINDS SURROUNDING THE REMAINDER THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG
SHEAR (25-30KTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT 95A
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO
STRONG SHEAR ALOFT AND FRICTIONAL EFFECTS AS IT BEGINS TO TRACK OVER
LAND. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.