(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.7S
94.2E, APPROXIMATELY 340 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF BROAD
TURNING WITH FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 98S
IN AN AREA MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD
OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY
HIGH (>25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT 98S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD WITH SLOW, STEADY
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE TURNING TO A MORE SOUTHWARD TRACK. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.4S 91.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.5S 92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY, ALONG WITH A 191259Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICT A
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION
SCATTERED AROUND THE PERIPHERY. INVEST 98S IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 98S WILL TRACK
GENERALLY SOUTHWARD WHILE CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
WTXS21 PGTW 200300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.2S 92.0E TO 9.6S 93.2E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
200000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.6S
92.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 5.5S
92.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.6S 92.1E, APPROXIMATELY 430 NM NORTHWEST
OF COCOS ISLAND. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG
WITH A 200006Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, DEPICT A VERY BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION SCATTERED
AROUND THE PERIPHERY. INVEST 98S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 98S WILL TRACK GENERALLY SOUTHWARD AND
THEN SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE CONSOLIDATING AND INTENSIFYING. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210300Z.//
NNNN
IDJ21020
BADAN METEOROLOGI KLIMATOLOGI DAN GEOFISIKA
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre (TCWC) Jakarta
BULETIN TEKNIS SIKLON TROPIS
Dikeluarkan oleh TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE JAKARTA
Pada: 14:37 UTC 21/05/2020
Digunakan hanya sebagai pertimbangan pembuatan prakiraan cuaca, tidak untuk disebarluaskan secara langsung kepada masyarakat.
System: 1
Storm ID: 27S
SIKLON TROPIS: TC MANGGA
Data pada: 21/1200 UTC
Lintang: 9.8LS
Bujur: 93.0BT
Akurasi Posisi: sekitar
Arah gerak: tenggara (132 derajat)
Kecepatan gerak: 13 knots (25 km/jam)
Arah 1: Dari Kerinci
Pada +0: 660 mil (1220 km) barat daya
Pada +12: 690 mil (1280 km) barat daya
Pada +24: 740 mil (1360 km) selatan barat daya
Arah 2: Dari Bengkulu
Pada +0: 660 mil (1220 km) barat barat daya
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran TL: 270 mil (500 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran Tg: 340 mil (630 km)
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran BD:
Radius angin 34-knot pada kuadran BL:
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0657 UTC 22/05/2020
Name: Tropical Cyclone Mangga
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 11.4S
Longitude: 94.2E
Location Accuracy: within 60 nm [110 km]
Movement Towards: south southeast [150 deg]
Speed of Movement: 10 knots [18 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 35 knots [65 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Central Pressure: 995 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm [465 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 22/1200: 12.7S 95.1E: 085 [155]: 040 [075]: 995
+12: 22/1800: 14.0S 96.3E: 095 [180]: 040 [075]: 996
+18: 23/0000: 15.5S 97.8E: 110 [200]: 040 [075]: 996
+24: 23/0600: 17.1S 99.7E: 120 [220]: 040 [075]: 996
+36: 23/1800: 20.1S 104.6E: 140 [255]: 040 [075]: 994
+48: 24/0600: : : :
+60: 24/1800: : : :
+72: 25/0600: : : :
+96: 26/0600: : : :
+120: 27/0600: : : :
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Mangga remains a weak system. An ASCAT pass at 0252Z showed a
large area of weak winds near the system centre, which remains elongated, and a
band of near gales in the northeast quadrant. Gales are expected to redevelop
when the convection reinvigorates.
The position confidence is fair and is based on the ASCAT pass and animated VIS
imagery, and is consistent with previous track forecasts.
This system has not been amenable to Dvorak analysis and is not likely to
develop into a classical tropical cyclone pattern by Dvorak standards,
CIMSS shear analysis indicates shear has decreased to around 7-8 knots, which is
consistent with the appearance on satellite. Ocean heat content is high and the
convection is being assisted by strong upper level poleward outflow and an
equatorial westerly wind burst at low levels. There is a window of opportunity
for some limited development in the next 12-18 hours as the circulation moves
through the area of lower wind shear. Thereafter it will experience higher shear
and lower ocean heat content that will limit the potential for barotropic
intensification.
During Saturday the circulation will increasingly feel the effects of an
approaching upper level trough to the southwest. Following some initial
weakening, the circulation is likely to be transformed into a non-tropical
[baroclinic] system as it interacts with a cold front to become a complex
weather system along the west coast of Western Australia.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 22/1330 UTC by Perth TCWC.
IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1841 UTC 22/05/2020
Name: Ex-Tropical Cyclone Mangga
Identifier: 17U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 14.1S
Longitude: 96.1E
Location Accuracy: within 40 nm [75 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [146 deg]
Speed of Movement: 16 knots [30 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 996 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:
Dvorak Intensity Code: N/A
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 250 nm [465 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06: 23/0000: 15.5S 97.5E: 060 [115]: 030 [055]: 995
+12: 23/0600: 16.9S 99.4E: 075 [135]: 030 [055]: 995
+18: 23/1200: 18.5S 101.7E: 085 [160]: 030 [055]: 995
+24: 23/1800: 20.0S 104.0E: 100 [185]: 030 [055]: 995
+36: 24/0600: : : :
+48: 24/1800: : : :
+60: 25/0600: : : :
+72: 25/1800: : : :
+96: 26/1800: : : :
+120: 27/1800: : : :
REMARKS:
Ex-tropical cyclone Mangga remains a weak system. Although convection is
generally increasing in the vicinity of the low level circulation centre, it
remains disorganised. A recent ASCAT pass confirmed a still elongated low level
centre [though somewhat more consolidated than 12 hours previously]. A swathe of
25 to 30 knot winds was evident in the northeast quadrant, but there were no
gales associated with the system. The automatic weather station at Cocos Island
[about 100 nautical miles northeast of the system at closest approach] has
maintained wind speeds of 15 to 20 knots consistently throughout the night.
The position confidence is fair based on animated IR imagery, and is consistent
with previous track forecasts.
This system has not been amenable to Dvorak analysis and is not likely to
develop into a classical tropical cyclone pattern by Dvorak standards,
A recent CIMSS shear estimate gives 16.5 knots of deep layer vertical wind
shear. The system currently lies under a shear minimum, and its track is
expected to take it into increasing vertical wind shear from now onward.
Although ocean heat content is high and upper level poleward outflow remains
somewhat conducive to development, the favourable window is now considered too
narrow for further significant barotropic intensification.
During Saturday the circulation will increasingly feel the effects of an
approaching upper level trough to the southwest. Following some initial
weakening, the circulation is likely to be transformed into a non-tropical
[baroclinic] system as it interacts with a cold front to become a complex
weather system along the west coast of Western Australia.
Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
There will be no further bulletins for this system unless it reintensifies.
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