老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：95 S
擾動編號日期：2020 年 04 月 16 日 21 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 04 月 23 日 00 時
95S.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.10S.119.9E

老農民版夜神月

JTWC17/0730Z將其評級為Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.0S 117.6E, APPROXIMATELY 640 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170133Z
METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT AN ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
STRONG MID-LEVEL TURNING AND SOME FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE
SOUTHEAST. INVEST 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT
WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND
WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS, SPECIFICALLY
GFS AND ECMWF, SHOW FURTHER DEVELOPMENT AS A COMPACT SYSTEM AND
INTENSIFICATION FOR THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS AS INVEST 95S CONTINUES TO
TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD. NAVGEM AND UKMET IDENTIFY A CIRCULATION THAT
DOES NOT STRENGTHEN. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC20/0130Z撤評

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.4S 110.7E HAS BECOME FULLY EXPOSED AND STRONG SHEAR TO THE
SOUTHEAST CONTINUES TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE
SYSTEM. INVEST 95S IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.