老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：18 P ( 10F )
擾動編號日期：2020 年 02 月 20 日 16 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 02 月 00 日 00 時
98P.INVEST.15kts.996mb.12S.176E

老農民版夜神月

JTWC20/2100Z直接評級Medium

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.6S 177.9W, APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO,
AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY, ALONG WITH
A 201637Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOW A COMPACT AREA OF
CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE SPCZ. 98P IS CURRENTLY IN A FAIR
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WEAK
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, LOW (10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 98P IS CURRENTLY ASSESSED AS
TROPICAL. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT 98P WILL FURTHER CONSOLIDATE
AND SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC21/1500Z報升格18P,定強30KT,上望45KT

WTPS32 PGTW 211500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/210221ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (EIGHTEEN) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   211200Z --- NEAR 12.7S 175.2W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   REPEAT POSIT: 12.7S 175.2W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   220000Z --- 13.4S 173.7W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   221200Z --- 14.4S 172.2W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 10 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 16.1S 171.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 17.9S 171.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 20.4S 171.1W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
211500Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 174.8W.
21FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 18P (EIGHTEEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
280 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PAGO PAGO, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS AN IMPROVED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION ON THE SOUTHERN END OF A LINE OF DEEP CONVECTION THAT
EXTENDS NORTH-TO-SOUTH. BASED ON THE EIR, THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE
IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE 30 KT INITIAL INTENSITY IS ON THE HIGH
END OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM T1.5-T2.0 (25-30 KTS).
ALTHOUGH THE INTENSITY IS BELOW THE BASIN WARNING THRESHOLD, THE
WARNING IS BEING GENERATED BECAUSE 18P IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY TO
45 KTS AS IT PASSES NEAR AMERICAN SAMOA AROUND TAU 24. WITH FAIR
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM
(28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, THE ENVIRONMENT IS
FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. TC 18P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE, FOLLOWING THE MONSOON TROUGH.
BY TAU 24, A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST WILL SHIFT THE TRACK
POLEWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD ALLOW TC 18P TO PEAK AT
APPROXIMATELY 45 KTS BY TAU 24. WITH HIGH VWS EXPECTED AFTER TAU 48,
TC 18P SHOULD DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST
ARE VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS SEEN WITH 17P. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. WITH GOOD
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS AND THE PRECEDENT SEEN WITH 17P, THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 211200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 212100Z, 220300Z,
220900Z AND 221500Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 17P (VICKY) WARNINGS
(WTPS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 210230).//
NNNN

jrchang5

FMS判定22/00Z升格為澳式C1，命名Wasi。
22/06Z定強45kts，中心氣壓990hpa。

HURRICANE WARNING 058 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 220648 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WASI CENTRE 990HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1 SOUTH 172.6
WEST AT 220600 UTC.
POSITION FAIR.
REPEAT POSITION 14.1S 172.6W at 220600 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST AT 11 KNOTS. CYCLONE INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 45 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 65 KNOTS BY
230000 UTC.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

FORECAST POSITION NEAR 15.4S 171.4W AT 221800 UTC
              AND NEAR 17.1S 170.4W AT 230600 UTC.

ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ

THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 057.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC06Z德法已降至T1.5,CI2.0,定強40KT
FMS則於06Z報中定強35KT,並預測12~18H後即將減弱為熱帶低氣壓

18P WASI 200223 0600 17.1S 171.1W SHEM 40 1001

TPPS12 PGTW 230614

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 18P (WASI)

B. 22/0540Z

C. 16.96S

D. 171.15W

E. FIVE/GOES17

F. T1.5/2.0/W2.0/24HRS  STT: W0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS .30 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 1.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   MARTIN

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A6 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 230731 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE WASI CENTRE 994HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1S 170.9W AT
230600 UTC.  POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI-8 EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS.  CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT
9 KNOTS.  MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED
AT ABOUT 35 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
                       AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

CONVECTIONS CONTINUE TO BE SUPPRESSED OVER LLCC BUT HAS PERSISTED TO
THE EAST OF LLCC. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH
MODERATE UPPER DIVERGENCE. ORGANIZATION POOR. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
EXTENDS UP TO 500HPA. SST AROUND 29 DEGREES
CELSIUS. WASI IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST BY
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM.
DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN WITH CONVECTIONS DISPLACED
ABOUT 38 NAUTICAL MILES EAST OF LLCC, YIELDING DT=2.5, MET AND PT
AGREE.
FT BASED ON DT THUS, YIELDING T2.5/3.0/W0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 231800 UTC 18.7S 170.2W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 35
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 240600 UTC 20.3S 169.7W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 241800 UTC 22.0S 169.2W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 250600 UTC 24.0S 168.5W MOV SSE AT 09 KT WITH 30
KT CLOSE TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE WASI WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 231400UTC.