老農民版夜神月

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編號　　　　：16 S
擾動編號日期：2020 年 02 月 12 日 22 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 02 月 00 日 00 時
94S INVEST 200212 1200 15.0S 75.0E SHEM 15 0

老農民版夜神月

JTWC於編擾後不久,12/1800Z隨即評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
15.0S 75.0E, APPROXIMATELY 484 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A VERY BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) SURROUNDED BY LARGE AREAS OF CONVECTION,
WITH LIMITED CONVECTION OVERHEAD. A 121255Z WINDSAT 37GHZ PARTIAL
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE SURROUNDING CONVECTION AS SLIGHTLY
FRAGMENTED WITH SOME ORGANIZATION DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTH. 94S IS
CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94S
WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MINIMAL
INTENSIFICATION, BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD AND INTENSIFYING.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC13/1230Z評級提升至Medium

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.0S 75.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 75.3E, APPROXIMATELY 475
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PATCHY CONVECTION OVER A DEVELOPING LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, WHICH IS ALSO EVIDENT IN 130814Z AMSR2
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10-15 KNOTS),
WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-29C) AND MODERATE POLEWARD AND
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
NUMERICAL MODELS DEPICT STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THIS DISTURBANCE
WITH SLOW EASTWARD TO POLEWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC14/0900Z發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 14.4S 74.9E TO 18.0S 74.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 020600Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 74.8E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 14.8S 75.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 74.8E, APPROXIMATELY 448
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 140500Z MHS 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH SOME FLARING CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. A
140413Z PARTIAL ASCAT-C PASS REVEALS 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM (29-
30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE
TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS SOUTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
150900Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

MFR已升格為熱帶低壓第9號,上望中度熱帶風暴45KT
JTWC則於15/00Z升格其為TC,上望熱帶風暴上限60KT

WTIO30 FMEE 150013
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 2/9/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 9
2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 25 NM RADIUS OF POINT 15.7 S / 74.6 E
(FIFTEEN DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 3 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 46 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 0 SE: 0 SW: 80 NW: 80
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/15 12 UTC: 16.7 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2020/02/16 00 UTC: 18.3 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2020/02/16 12 UTC: 19.3 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2020/02/17 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 19.0 S / 73.3 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 19.7 S / 72.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 23.4 S / 72.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5
OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, A STRONG CONVECTIVE BURST TRIGGERED. THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS NOW WELL RELOCATED UNDER THE MOST
ACTIVE CONVECTION, WHICH CORRESPONDS TO A RELATIVELY SIGNIFICANT
IMPROVEMENT OF THE CLOUD PATTERN. 2209Z SSMI SWATH CONFIRMS THE
IMPROVING STRUCTURE, WITH A NICE ACTIVE COMMA OF STRONG CONVECTION
WRAPING .5 AROUND THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A BUOY LOCATED CLOSE TO THE
ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION ALLOWS FOR A GOOD ESTIMATE OF THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE AT 998 HPA.
WITH THE EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
BEGIN TO ACCELERATE GENERALLY SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD. SUNDAY, THE
RIDGE BECOMES TOO FAR AWAY AND ITS INFLUENCE WEAKENS. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THUS SLOW DOWN BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY. MONDAY, A SHORT
NORTH-WESTERN MOTION IS FORECAST BY THE MAIN MODELS, WEAKLY STEERED
FROM A DISTANCE BY THE NEW SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ARRIVING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. FROM THIS FORECAST LEAD TIME, THE ENSEMBLE SPREAD
INCREASES, AS SOME MEMBERS AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AN EASTWARD TRACK. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS BASED
ON THE FIRST OPTION.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL TONIGHT, WITH STILL A GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER SUNDAY,
A WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR CONSTRAINT COULD
AFFECT THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED TO DRIER ENVIRONMENTAL AIR. THUS, THE
SYSTEM INTENSITY COULD COME TO A HALT AS ITS DEVELOPMENT IS DISTURBED
BY INTERMITTENT DRY INTRUSIONS. FROM MONDAY EVENING, AS AN UPPER
TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST, A STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY
WIND SHEAR SHOULD DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
AT THE END OF THE TAUS, A SMALL INTENSITY REBOUND IS POSSIBLE THANKS TO
BAROCLINIC PROCESSES, AS THE RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR INTERACTS
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.

老農民版夜神月

MFR15/06Z升格中度熱帶風暴,定強40KT,獲名Gabekile

FKIO20 FMEE 150624
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200215/0624Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: GABEKILE
ADVISORY NR: 2020/01
OBS PSN: 15/0600Z S1626 E07442
CB: WI 60NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL500
MOV: S 05KT
C: 994HPA
MAX WIND: 40KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 15/1200Z S1711 E07446
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 15/1800Z S1753 E07449
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 16/0000Z S1830 E07452
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 48KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 16/0600Z S1904 E07452
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 45KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200215/1200Z=

老農民版夜神月

MFR升格強烈熱帶風暴,定強50KT,預測12H後將達強烈熱帶風暴上限60KT

WTIO30 FMEE 151308
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/9/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 9 (GABEKILE)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/15 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.0 S / 74.1 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 8 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 990 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 00 UTC: 18.4 S / 74.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/02/16 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/17 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 19.1 S / 73.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 18.9 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 18.8 S / 72.8 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/19 12 UTC: 19.5 S / 71.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/20 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 69.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5
THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
TRANSITION FROM A BANDING CLOUD PATTERN TO A CDO ASSOCIATED WITH VERY
COLD CLOUD TOPS. THE SSMI PASS AT 1043Z REVEAL THAT AN EYE PATTERN IS
BUILDING AT THE MID-LEVELS. THE INTENSITY IS THEREFORE SET AT 50 KT ON THE
HIGH END OF ALL AVAILABLE SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES THAT RANGE
BETWEEN 3.0 AND 3.5.
THE FORWARD MOTION IS CURRENTLY ON A GENERAL SOUTHWARDS TRACK OVER
THE WESTERN EDGE OF A MID LEVELS RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND AHEAD
OF A SIGNIFICANT WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NEAR 70E. FROM
MONDAY THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND IS LINKED
WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST. AT THIS FORECAST LEAD TIME, THE ENSEMBLE
SPREAD INCREASES, AS SOME MEMBERS AND OTHER DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE
FORECASTING AN EASTWARD TRACK.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR THE SYSTEM'S DEVELOPMENT
UNTIL TONIGHT, WITH STILL A GOOD POLEWARD DIVERGENCE. HOWEVER BEFORE
SUNDAY MORNING, A WESTERLY TO SOUTH-WESTERLY MID-LEVEL WIND SHEAR
CONSTRAINT COULD AFFECT THE SYSTEM, ASSOCIATED TO DRIER
ENVIRONMENTAL AIR. THUS, THE SYSTEM INTENSITY COULD COME TO A HALT AS
ITS DEVELOPMENT IS DISTURBED BY INTERMITTENT DRY INTRUSIONS. GIVEN THE
RECENT TREND, THE SYSTEM COULD BE CLOSE TO TROPICAL CYCLONE
(HURRICANE) STRENGTH BY THAT TIME. MONDAY ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
MAY IMPROVE AGAIN WITH AN EASING OF THE SHEAR. THE CURRENT FORECAST
CALL FOR A HALT ON THE WEAKENING TREND. NOTE THAT HOW THE SYSTEM WILL
BENEFIT FROM THIS TEMPORARILY IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL DRIVE THE
TRACK FORECAST. FROM MONDAY NIGHT, AS AN UPPER TROUGH ARRIVES FROM
THE SOUTH-WEST, A STRENGTHENING NORTH-WESTERLY WIND SHEAR SHOULD
DEFINITELY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT POSE ANY THREAT TO INHABITED ISLANDS.

老農民版夜神月

MFR判定其於16/00Z時達70KT,16/06Z略為減弱至65KT
JTWC則於16/00Z,16/06Z均定強75KT,兩機構均預測其已達巔峰

WTIO30 FMEE 160043
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/9/20192020
1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 9 (GABEKILE)
2.A POSITION 2020/02/16 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.4 S / 74.8 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY FOUR DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/4.5/D 1.0/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 17 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 160 SE: 370 SW: 300 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 90
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1000 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/02/16 12 UTC: 19.2 S / 74.8 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2020/02/17 00 UTC: 19.6 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2020/02/17 12 UTC: 19.4 S / 74.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2020/02/18 00 UTC: 19.2 S / 73.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2020/02/18 12 UTC: 18.9 S / 73.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2020/02/19 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/02/20 00 UTC: 22.5 S / 70.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
120H: 2020/02/21 00 UTC: 24.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=4.5+

16S GABEKILE 200216 0600 19.2S 74.7E SHEM 75 980