Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Feb 142304 UTC.
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 07F CENTRE 999HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 07.5S 174.9E
AT 142100UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS AND IR IMAGERY
AND PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. TD07F SLOW MOVING.
DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE EAST OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC WITH POOR
ORGANISATION. SYSTEM LIES UNDER AN UPPER DIVERGENT AREA IN A LOW TO
MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE OUTFLOW. SST AROUND 29
DEGREES CELSIUS.
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHEASTWARDS
WITH GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT
24 TO 48 HOURS IS LOW TO MODERATE.
ABPW10 PGTW 150000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/150000Z-150600ZFEB2020//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.4S 173.6E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NADI, FIJI.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
LEVEL TROUGHING WITH MULTIPLE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION EVIDENT IN A
142153Z METOP-B 89GHZ IMAGE. THE SYSTEM IS THE RESULT OF A COMPLEX
DYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH CONVERGING WINDS FROM THE SPCZ AND
MONSOON TROUGH INTERACTING WITH WESTERLY WINDBURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ACTIVE MJO SIGNATURE AND IS THUS BEING ASSESSED AS A
HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM. INVEST 93P IS TRAVERSING A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW
(<15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 93P
WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST-SOUTHEAST TOWARDS PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA AS IT FURTHER STRENGTHENS AND CONSOLIDATES OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS MEDIUM.
WTPS21 PGTW 151700 COR
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P) CORRECTED//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
335 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.7S 174.2E TO 13.7S 174.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 151200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 175.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.7S 175.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 177.8E, APPROXIMATELY
692 NM WEST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
IMAGERY AND A 151355Z AMSR2 89GHZ SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT AN
EXTREMELY LARGE ELONGATED AREA OF DISORGANIZED, ALBEIT PERSISTENT,
CONVECTION WITHOUT A CLEAR CIRCULATION CENTER. THE SYSTEM IS THE
RESULT OF A COMPLEX DYNAMICAL ENVIRONMENT WITH CONVERGING WINDS FROM
THE MONSOON TROUGH (EXTENDING FROM THE CORAL SEA TO SAMOA), THE
SOUTH PACIFIC CONVERGENCE ZONE (SOUTH OF FIJI), AND INTERACTING WITH
WESTERLY WIND BURSTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ACTIVE MADDEN-JULIAN
OSCILLATION TO THE NORTH NEAR THE EQUATOR. THIS SYSTEM IS NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE AND ASSESSED AS A HYBRID TROPICAL SYSTEM. 93P
EXISTS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO
MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL
MODELS ALL AGREE 93P WILL GENERATE SIGNIFICANT STORM FORCE WINDS AND
HEAVY PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN CONVERGENT
PERIPHERY. THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS CONVERGENT LINE WILL APPROACH
AND IMPACT AMERICAN SAMOA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
161700Z.
4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED INITIAL POSITION OF
INVEST 93P IN PARA 2.//
NNNN
WTPS21 PGTW 171300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93P) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/161651ZFEB2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 161700). THE AREA OF
CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 15.6S 170.7W IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 168.2W, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM SOUTH OF PAGO PAGO
AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
LARGE ELONGATED AREA OF DISORGANIZED CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST ABOVE A RAGGED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING
GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, AND HIGH (40-50KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THE LLC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL
CYLCONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.//
NNNN
. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.6S 170.7W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.1S 167.1W, APPROXIMATELY
352 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED AREA OF CIRCULATION
WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE
SOUTHEAST. A 171739Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED,
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 172053Z ASCAT-B SHOWS
STRONG (45-50 KT) ASYMMETRIC WINDS ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF THE LLCC
WITH MODERATE (20-25 KT) WINDS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS EXPERIENCING GOOD EQUATORWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (27-28C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND
VERY HIGH (40-50 KTS) VERTICAL, IN-PHASE, WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS
AGREE THE LLCC WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AS A SUBTROPICAL
CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 994 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 21.2S 165.9W HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
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