簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
|
老農民版夜神月|2020-2-14 11:19
|
顯示全部樓層
本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2020-2-14 11:52 編輯
JTWC13/2100Z報判定其已重新增強回到TC強度，預測登陸馬達加斯加前可達50KT
WTXS31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131800Z --- NEAR 18.3S 49.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.3S 49.9E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140600Z --- 19.0S 49.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141800Z --- 19.5S 48.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150600Z --- 19.6S 48.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151800Z --- 19.7S 47.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
132100Z POSITION NEAR 18.5S 49.8E.
13FEB20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (FRANCISCO), LOCATED
APPROXIMATELY
141 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WEST-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. AVAILABLE
METEOROLOGICAL DATA SUPPORTS THE REGENERATION OF TC 13S, THEREFORE
JTWC HAS RESUMED WARNINGS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR)
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS LOW LEVEL BANDS WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE ANIMATED EIR
LOOP AND A TIMELY, DIRECT 131754Z ASCAT-B PASS. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 40 KTS IS PLACED ABOVE MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS, PGTW) AND T1.5 (25 KTS, FMEE AND KNES)
DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF 40-45 KNOT WINDS PRESENT IN THE
AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT IMAGE. TC 13S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS),
WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) AND MODERATE
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT. TC 13S WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF
50 KNOTS THROUGH TAU 24 AT WHICH TIME IT WILL MAKE LANDFALL SOUTH OF
TOAMASINA, MADAGASCAR. LAND INTERACTION WITH RUGGED TERRAIN AND
DIMINISHING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL CAUSE TC 13S TO BEGIN
DISSIPATION OVER LAND BY TAU 36 AND COMPLETE DISSIPATION OVER LAND
BY TAU 48. NUMERICAL MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE
GENERAL SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AND LANDFALL TIMING, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE TO THE OVERALL JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHT AT 131800Z IS 9 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z AND
142100Z.//
NNNN
|
|
