0908morakot

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：05 F ( 12 P )
擾動編號日期：2020 年 01 月 21 日 09 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 01 月 30 日 01 時
96P.INVEST.15kts.989mb.12S.178W

老農民版夜神月

JTWC評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
14.2S 170W, APPROXIMATELY 43 NM NORTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN
SAMOA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231809Z SSMIS
91GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING CONVECTION OVER A PARTIALLY OBSCURED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION. A 231807 ASCAT-A PASS DEPICTS AN ASYMMETRIC WIND
FIELD AND TROUGHING THROUGHOUT. INVEST 96P IS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (10-20KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 96P WILL INTENSIFY AND
TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

FMS24/09Z編號05F,並對其兩日展望評級為中

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 240911 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTRE 1005 HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 14.2S
170.0W AT 240600UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 IR/EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TD05F SLOW MOVING.

DEEP CONVECTION LIES TO THE NORTH OF THE SUPPOSED LLCC WITH POOR
ORGANISATION. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 700 HPA. SYSTEM LIES
IN A UPPER DIFFLUENT REGION WITH GOOD OUTFLOW TO THE EAST IN A LOW
SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS.

GLOBAL MODELS HAVE PICKED UP THE SYSTEM AND MOVE IT SOUTHWARDS WITH
SOME INTENSIFICATION.

POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE
NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS IS MODERATE.

NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ANALYSED OR FORECAST IN THE
AREA.

老農民版夜神月

持續整合發展,JTWC25/1800Z定強30KT,同時提升評級為Medium

96P INVEST 200124 1800 15.5S 169.4W SHEM 30 1000

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.9S 170.3W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.5S 169.4W, APPROXIMATELY
100 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH FORMATIVE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 241411Z SSMI
85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL
OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND WARM SST VALUES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A SOUTHWARD
TRAJECTORY WITH STEADY DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS UNDER A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC發布TCFA

WTPS21 PGTW 242200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.4S 169.0W TO 21.1S 166.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 242130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 15.8S 168.9W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 15.5S 169.4W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.8S 168.9W, APPROXIMATELY
138 NM SOUTHEAST OF PAGO PAGO, AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH FRAGMENTED BANDING OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A 241756Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY STRONG WESTERLIES TO THE SOUTH, LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS) AND WARM SST VALUES (29-30C). GLOBAL
MODELS INDICATE A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY TRAJECTORY WITH STEADY
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 1-2 DAYS UNDER A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
252200Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

JTWC25/12Z升格12P,並預測未來12小時將持續發展增強
FMS暫未升格

WTPS31 PGTW 251500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/242130ZJAN2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   251200Z --- NEAR 20.4S 167.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 150 DEGREES AT 20 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.4S 167.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   260000Z --- 21.8S 167.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   261200Z --- 22.6S 167.0W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 170 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 23.2S 166.9W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   271200Z --- 23.6S 167.4W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 167.7W.
25JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
142 NM SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 20
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
(EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING UNDER
FLARING, DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON AN
EXTRAPOLATION OF A 250919Z METOP-B BULLSEYE ASCAT DEPICTING WINDS IN
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT WRAPPING INTO A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). BASED ON A SWATH OF 35-40 KT WINDS IN THE AFOREMENTIONED
ASCAT, THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 35 KTS WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS ROBUST EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNELS, LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM
(27-28 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, CREATING AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 12P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS, THE SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK
WITH FAVORABLE CONDITIONS, ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 40 KTS BY TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12, INCREASING VWS AND COOLING
SST WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM. A LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
BUILDING IN TO THE SOUTH WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING FEATURE
FOR TC 12P BY TAU 24. THIS STR WILL SLOWLY TURN TC 12P TO A
SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITS ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE STR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TC
12P IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48 AS THE SYSTEM
TRACKS THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT OF COOL (<26 CELSIUS) SST AND HIGH
(>35 KTS) VWS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
TAU 12. BEYOND THAT, VARIATIONS IN ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS CAUSE THE
MODELS TO DIVERGE AS THE SYSTEM TURNS TO ITS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK,
INCREASING MODEL SPREAD TO 70 NM BY TAU 48. OF NOTE, THERE ARE A FEW
OUTLIER SOLUTIONS PRESENTED BY NAVGEM AND ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE. THE
NAVGEM SOLUTION TRACKS TC 12P TO THE SOUTH AT SLOWER SPEEDS PRIOR TO
TURNING SOUTHWESTWARD WHILE THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
MAINTAIN A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE VARIATIONS IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 11 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 252100Z, 260300Z, 260900Z AND 261500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 242200).//
NNNN

t02436

FMS已編號05F，但已發最終報。

Tropical Disturbance Summary For area Equator to 25S, 160E to 120W
ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Jan 252304 UTC.

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 05F CENTRE 1004HPA WAS ANALYSED NEAR 21.6S
167.1W AT 252100UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 VIS AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE OBSERVATION. TD05F MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 KNOTS.

DEEP CONVECTION IS SHEARED TO THE EAST OF EXPOSED LLCC IN A MODERATE
TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARDS INTO A HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 TO
48HRS IS VERY LOW.

THIS WILL BE THE LAST TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY FOR TD05F UNLESS
THE SYSTEM RE-INTENSIFIES.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC降格,26/1500Z發出最終報

WTPS31 PGTW 261500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12P (TWELVE) WARNING NR 005   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   261200Z --- NEAR 22.4S 166.4W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 145 DEGREES AT 05 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   REPEAT POSIT: 22.4S 166.4W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   270000Z --- 22.7S 166.3W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
261500Z POSITION NEAR 22.5S 166.4W.
26JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 12P (TWELVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
279 NM SOUTHEAST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 05 KNOTS (KTS)
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS AN EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION
LOCATED TO THE EAST. BASED ON A 261200Z HIMAWARI INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGE SHOWING THE EXPOSED LLCC, THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS SET WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE, SUPPORTED BY A 260743Z METOP-A BULLSEYE ASCAT PASS WHICH
DEPICTS 25-29 KT WINDS AS THE SYSTEM?S HIGHEST ASSOCIATED WINDS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (25-30
KTS), WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26-27 CELSIUS), AND MARGINAL
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. TC 12P IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY
OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST AND HAS FULLY DISSIPATED.
AS TC 12P TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD, IT WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN MODERATE
AGREEMENT WITH GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLE AS THE NOTABLE OUTLIERS. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THIS IS THE
FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR
HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 261200Z IS 12 FEET.//
NNNN