老農民版夜神月

  強烈熱帶風暴  
編號：06-20192020 ( 10 S )
名稱：Diane

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2020 年 01 月 20 日 08 時
命名日期　　：2020 年 01 月 25 日 02 時
JTWC升格日期:2020 年 01 月 25 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 01 月 0=30 日 17 時
登陸地點　　：馬達加斯加

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
法國留尼旺氣象局 ( MFR )：50 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：45 kts ( TS )
海平面最低氣壓：980 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
95S INVEST 200120 0000 20.0S 40.0E SHEM 15 1002


以上資料來自：MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

老農民版夜神月

JTWC21/1800Z評級Low

(2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
20.2S 42.6E, APPROXIMATELY 126 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF EUROPA ISLAND.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211553Z 91GHZ
SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW MINIMAL CONVECTION LOCATED OVER THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). HOWEVER, A 210523Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS AN
ELONGATED CIRCULATION WITH 25-30KT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT. INVEST 94S IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (<15 KNOTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD
WITH SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

t02436

已編號擾動區第6號，即將登陸，橫越馬達加斯加後有機會發展為中等熱帶風暴

ZCZC 497
WTIO30 FMEE 221258 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/6/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 6
2.A POSITION 2020/01/22 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.8 S / 44.0 E
(SIXTEEN    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND
FORTY FOUR    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: EAST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 999 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 0 SW: 300 NW: 480
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 800 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/23 00 UTC: 17.8 S / 46.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/01/23 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 48.6 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, OVERLAND
DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/01/24 00 UTC: 19.3 S / 52.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/24 12 UTC: 19.6 S / 54.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/25 00 UTC: 20.1 S / 57.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/25 12 UTC: 20.7 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/26 12 UTC: 23.0 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/01/27 12 UTC: 21.8 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, REMNANT
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

系統已通過馬達加斯加,MFR24/00Z升格帶低壓;
JTWC23/2100Z發布TCFA.兩機構均預測將於24H內升格

WTXS21 PGTW 232100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.2S 50.0E TO 20.2S 58.5E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 231800Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 50.3E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 17.9S 48.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.2S 50.3E, APPROXIMATELY 260
NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231527Z SSMIS 91GHZ SATELLITE
IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). A 231713Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS REVEALS A TIGHT LLC
WITH 30 KT WIND BARBS NEAR THE CENTER. INVEST 95S IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE (10-20KTS)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
INVEST 95S INTENSIFYING AND TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 998 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
242100Z.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

升格中級熱帶風暴,命名Diane

FKIO20 FMEE 241814
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200124/1814Z
TCAC: REUNION
TC: DIANE
ADVISORY NR: 2020/01
OBS PSN: 24/1800Z S1928 E05657
CB: WI 150NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL490
MOV: E 14KT
C: 995HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6 HR: 25/0000Z S2003 E05844
FCST MAX WIND +6 HR: 38KT
FCST PSN +12 HR: 25/0600Z S2042 E06028
FCST MAX WIND +12 HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +18 HR: 25/1200Z S2125 E06206
FCST MAX WIND +18 HR: 43KT
FCST PSN +24 HR: 25/1800Z S2207 E06336
FCST MAX WIND +24 HR: 45KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200125/0000Z=

老農民版夜神月

JTWC升格10S,巔峰上看45KT

WTXS31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DIANE) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/232051ZJAN2020//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 10S (DIANE) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   241800Z --- NEAR 19.6S 56.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 15 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 56.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   250600Z --- 20.9S 60.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 15 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   251800Z --- 22.0S 63.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 13 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   260600Z --- 22.7S 66.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 105 DEG/ 09 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   261800Z --- 23.1S 67.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 125 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   271800Z --- 23.9S 69.2E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 06 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   281800Z --- 26.4S 68.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
242100Z POSITION NEAR 19.9S 57.7E.
24JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 10S (DIANE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 38
NM NORTHWEST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. A 241805Z AMSU 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES IMPROVED CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING
OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF A
DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. A 241652Z ASCAT
BULLSEYE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 35-40 KNOT WINDS
OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL
POSITION AND INTENSITY IS GOOD BASED ON THE TIMELY ASCAT DATA.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY-FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG (25-30 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) OFFSET BY GOOD EQUATORWARD AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES OF
28-29C ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. TC 10S IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE POSITIONED
TO THE NORTH AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
THROUGH TAU 48. SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED AS VWS DECREASES
WITH A PEAK OF 45 KNOTS BY TAU 24. AFTER TAU 48, THE SYSTEM SHOULD
SLOW AND GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEASTWARD AS THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT
WEAKENS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF TC 11S. THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN DUE
TO INCREASING VWS ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING BROAD UPPER-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 72, TC 10S WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD AS THE
LOW-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH AND IS
FORECAST TO DISSIPATE UNDER COOLER SST AND STRONG VWS (30-40 KNOTS).
TC 10S IS FORECAST TO APPROACH WITHIN 320NM OF TC 11S AT TAU 96 AND
WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE ITS TRACK. OVERALL, CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO
THE COMPLEX, EVOLVING STEERING ENVIRONMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 241800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z AND 252100Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 11S (ELEVEN) WARNINGS (WTXS32 PGTW) FOR
TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 232100).//
NNNN

t02436

MFR 00Z已升格STS，認為已達顛峰

ZCZC 789
WTIO30 FMEE 260613 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 15/6/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 6 (DIANE)
2.A POSITION 2020/01/26 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 24.3 S / 67.5 E
(TWENTY FOUR    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY SEVEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.0/3.5/W 0.5/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 320 SE: 650 SW: 650 NW: 170
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 240 SW: 240 NW: 110
48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 700 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/26 18 UTC: 24.4 S / 68.6 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2020/01/27 06 UTC: 24.6 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/01/27 18 UTC: 25.9 S / 69.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/28 06 UTC: 27.6 S / 68.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
60H: 2020/01/28 18 UTC: 29.8 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/29 06 UTC: 31.2 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/30 06 UTC: 37.8 S / 66.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/01/31 06 UTC: 46.5 S / 70.3 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
EXTRATROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=3.0/CI=3.5
NNNN