霧峰追風者

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：05-20192020 ( 09 S )
擾動編號日期：2020 年 01 月 18 日 03 時
撤編日期　　：2020 年 01 月 25 日 07 時
94S.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-7.3S-61.5E

老農民版夜神月

JTWC18/1800Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.0S
64.9E, APPROXIMATELY 460 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 181353Z WINDSAT 37GHZ IMAGE
DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER A BROAD, POORLY-ORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW
TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30C) ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT INVEST 94S INTENSIFYING AS IT
TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

老農民版夜神月

JTWC19/1330Z提升評級為Medium

ABIO10 PGTW 191330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
/OCEAN/REISSUED/191330Z-191800ZJAN2020//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
9.0S 64.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.6S 63.2E APPROXIMATELY 590 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
AND A 191109Z SSMIS 85GHZ IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DEEP CONVECTION OVER
A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (10-20KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30C) ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT INVEST 94S
INTENSIFYING AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO
MEDIUM.
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老農民版夜神月

JTWC20/0900Z發布TCFA

WTXS21 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
140 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.9S 64.7E TO 17.9S 68.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 64.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 10.5S 63.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 64.9E, APPROXIMATELY 235
NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 200517Z 89GHZ METOP-B SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP
FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. A
200403Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE EASTERN
SIDE OF AN ELONGATED CIRCULATION. INVEST 94S IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (<15 KNOTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR, GOOD EASTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT DEPICTING
INVEST 94S CONTINUING TO TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH ONLY SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210900Z.//
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老農民版夜神月

MFR21/12Z編號不穩定天氣區擾動第5號,預測有機會於36H後升格中級熱帶風暴並命名

WTIO31 FMEE 211229
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)


0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/5/20192020
1.A ZONE PERTURBEE 5


2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 21/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 17.4 S / 67.3 E
(DIX-SEPT DEGRES QUATRE SUD ET SOIXANTE SEPT DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD 10 KT


3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 1002 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 20 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE


6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 150 SE: SO: NO:


7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1004 HPA / 200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE


1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 22/01/2020 00 UTC: 19.5 S / 68.4 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, PERTURBATION TROPICALE
24H: 22/01/2020 12 UTC: 20.5 S / 69.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
36H: 23/01/2020 00 UTC: 22.9 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
48H: 23/01/2020 12 UTC: 26.1 S / 70.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
60H: 24/01/2020 00 UTC: 29.2 S / 71.8 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
72H: 24/01/2020 12 UTC: 33.1 S / 74.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE


2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 25/01/2020 12 UTC: 36.4 S / 84.0 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

老農民版夜神月

JTWC22/12Z升格09S,預測將維持強度36H後逐漸轉化

WTXS31 PGTW 221500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 001   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   221200Z --- NEAR 20.2S 69.9E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 125 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
     SATELLITE AND EXTRAPOLATION
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 20.2S 69.9E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   230000Z --- 22.4S 70.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 165 DEG/ 14 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   231200Z --- 25.1S 71.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 17 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   240000Z --- 28.4S 72.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   241200Z --- 31.7S 75.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 21 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   251200Z --- 36.6S 83.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
    ---
REMARKS:
221500Z POSITION NEAR 20.7S 70.1E.
22JAN20. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 09S (NINE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 710
NM EAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION OVERHEAD
AND EXTENDING TO THE NORTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS SET WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE BASED OFF OF AN EXTRAPOLATION OF A 220850Z AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
35 KTS IS BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T2.0-2.5 FROM PGTW/KNES/FMEE, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. TC 09S HAS AN ASYMMETRIC STRUCTURE, WITH HIGHER (30-35 KT)
WINDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE AND LOWER (10-15 KT) WINDS ON THE WESTERN
SIDE. OVERALL, CONVECTION HAS CONTINUED TO CYCLE OVER AND TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN A REGION OF MODERATE
(15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH AN EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE FAVORABLE AT 28-29
CELSIUS. TC 09S IS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) WHICH WILL REMAIN
THE MAJOR STEERING FEATURE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. AS THE
SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHEASTWARD, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT THROUGH TAU 24. BEYOND THAT, SST
WILL BEGIN TO DROP BELOW 26 CELSIUS AND VWS WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY
INCREASE AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS INTERACTING WITH THE POLAR FRONT JET TO
THE SOUTH. AROUND TAU 36, THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION WITH COMPLETION EXPECTED BY TAU 72, IF NOT SOONER, AS THE
SYSTEM BECOMES EMBEDDED IN THE JET FLOW. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN STRONG AGREEMENT FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST, PLACING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 221200Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 230300Z AND 231500Z.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 220900).
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老農民版夜神月

MFR23/00Z升格熱帶低壓第5號,並預測24H內有機率命名

WTIO31 FMEE 230027
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)

0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 4/5/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION TROPICALE 5

2.A POSITION A 0000 UTC LE 23/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 22.2 S / 71.2 E
(VINGT DEUX DEGRES DEUX SUD ET SOIXANTE ONZE DEGRES DEUX EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 12 KT

3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/24 H

4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 999 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 30 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE

6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 60 SO: 0 NO: 60

7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE

1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 23/01/2020 12 UTC: 24.9 S / 72.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
24H: 24/01/2020 00 UTC: 28.4 S / 73.0 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE
36H: 24/01/2020 12 UTC: 32.1 S / 75.2 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
48H: 25/01/2020 00 UTC: 34.4 S / 78.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE
60H: 25/01/2020 12 UTC: 36.6 S / 83.2 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, DEPRESSION EXTRATROPICALE

2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE

2.C COMMENTAIRES: T=CI=2.5

t02436

06Z報降格熱帶擾動，未來將增強為後熱帶氣旋。

ZCZC 361
WTIO30 FMEE 230646
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/5/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 5
2.A POSITION 2020/01/23 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 23.6 S / 71.7 E
(TWENTY THREE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-EAST 15 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 1.5/2.0/W 0.5/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 60 SW: 0 NW: 60
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2020/01/23 18 UTC: 26.9 S / 72.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2020/01/24 06 UTC: 30.6 S / 74.6 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2020/01/24 18 UTC: 33.3 S / 77.9 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2020/01/25 06 UTC: 36.7 S / 83.4 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=1.5 CI=2.0
THE SYSTEM HAS LOOSE ITS ORGANISATION OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS WITH AN
ILL-DEFINED CENTER EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE RESIDUAL DEEP
CONVECTION. THE FINAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE
LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES.
THE POOR LOW LEVEL PATTERN DID NOT ALLOWED A SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM DESPITE THE LESSENING OF THE
SHEAR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED NOW TO SHIFT UNDER THE SUBTROPICAL
WESTERLY JET WHICH SHOULD TRIGGER AN EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE AS
THE LOW EVACUATES TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDES AS A TROUGH PASSES BY.
SOME GALE FORCE WINDS MAY TEMPORARILY DEVELOP TOMORROW WITHIN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE ONLY.
GIVEN THE LIMITED INTENSITY, THE STEERING FLOW WILL REMAIN LOCATED IN
THE LOW-LEVELS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GLOBALLY TRACK SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE MODEL AND ENSEMBLE
DISPERSION IS RELATIVELY LOW.
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS IT REDEVELOPS.=
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