簽到天數: 1650 天 [LV.Master]伴壇終老
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老農民版夜神月|2019-12-28 15:27
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JTWC28/00Z升格04P(Sarai)為C1
WTPS31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI) WARNING NR 008
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 19.6S 177.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
185 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 19.6S 177.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 19.9S 178.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 20.0S 179.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 090 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 20.0S 179.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 085 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 19.9S 179.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.4S 177.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 18.4S 175.2W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 180 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 17.4S 172.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 200 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 19.7S 177.7E.
28DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (SARAI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 103
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CONVECTION WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 280117Z ATMS 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
DEPICTS A BROAD 45 NM DIAMETER MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE AND SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE LARGE SIZE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KTS IS BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KTS). THE ENVIRONMENT IS
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE WITH DECENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, MODERATE (15-20
KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). THE CYCLONE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO INTENSIFY
OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS BEFORE COOLER SSTS, CONTINUED MODERATE TO
STRONG VWS, AND MINIMAL UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW WILL CAUSE THE
INTENSITY TO WEAKEN. TC 04P IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWEST
PERIPHERY OF A POLEWARD EXTENSION OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
(NER). THERE IS A TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THAT IS
EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE NER AND SIGNIFICANTLY AFFECT THE TRACK OF
TC 04P. THE MODELS HANDLE THE TIMING AND DEPTH OF THIS TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED WEAKENING/REORIENTATION OF THE NER DIFFERENTLY,
LEADING TO A WIDE VARIATION IN THE MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE. NOTABLY,
THE 12Z RUN OF ECMWF NOW TRACKS TC 04P TO THE NORTH BRINGING IT
OVER FIJI BETWEEN TAUS 72 AND 96. FURTHERMORE, THE 18Z RUNS OF THE
GFS, GFS ENSEMBLE, AND NAVGEM RECURVE THE SYSTEM AROUND TAU 72 AND
START TRACKING TC 04P NORTHEAST TOWARDS AMERICAN SAMOA. MEANWHILE,
THE 12Z UK MET AND UK MET ENSEMBLE CONTINUE A DUE EASTERLY TRACK,
WHICH WAS DOMINANT PRIOR TO THE 272100Z JTWC WARNING. THEREFORE,
THE JTWC TRACK CONTINUES TO BE PULLED NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST TRACK NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. DUE TO THE
EXTREMELY HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z,
282100Z AND 290300Z.//
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