05S.Calvinia 加速南下逐漸轉化

老農民版夜神月 · 2019-12-28 16:10

MFR28/06Z編號擾動區第4號,將於馬達加斯加東部外海逐漸南下

WTIO30 FMEE 280659
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 1/4/20192020
1.A ZONE OF DISTURBED WEATHER 4
2.A POSITION 2019/12/28 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.0 S / 58.7 E
(THIRTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-EAST 6 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1003 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): NIL
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1100 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/28 18 UTC: 14.8 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/29 06 UTC: 16.7 S / 59.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
36H: 2019/12/29 18 UTC: 19.0 S / 59.5 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION
48H: 2019/12/30 06 UTC: 20.2 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2019/12/30 18 UTC: 20.7 S / 58.6 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2019/12/31 06 UTC: 21.2 S / 58.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/01 06 UTC: 22.4 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
120H: 2020/01/02 06 UTC: 26.6 S / 62.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
OVER THE LAST 24H, CONVECTION SHOWED SIGNS OF BETTER ORGANISATION
WITHIN A WIDE PREFERENTIAL ROTATION AREA, SIMILAR TO A MONSOON
DEPRESSION. AS OF NOW, THE LAST SCATT DATA (1630Z SCATSAT-1 AND THIS
MORNING ASCAT-A AND B SWATHS) SHOWED A WIDE AND ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH TWO VORTICITY CORES ON EACH END. CONVECTION IS
WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION, FORMING A SOLID
CURVED BAND, BUT GIVEN THE ELONGATED STRUCTURE, THE SYSTEM IS STILL
CONSIDERED AS A PERTURBED WEATHER AREA.
IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A RAPID
SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARD DESCENT OVER THE NEXT 48H UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF BOTH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND ESPECIALLY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. MONDAY, THE DISPERSION INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM
SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS IT BUMPS INTO A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATING IN
THE SOUTH. THUS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOCATED RATHER CLOSE TO THE
MASCARENES ISLANDS NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MODELS EVEN
FORECAST A LOOP VERY CLOSE TO MAURITIUS.
WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE TAKEN AWAY IN THE MID-LATITUDES BY A PASSING TROUGH.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS RATHER UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF AN
UPPER TROUGH SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH STRENGTHENS CONVECTION
WHILE CREATING A NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER SHEAR CONSTRAINT. THE RAPID
SOUTHWARD MOTION OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD ALLOW IT TO BENEFIT FROM THE
UPPER DIVERGENCE WHILE NOT UNDERGOING TOO MUCH OF THE WINDSHEAR
EFFECTS. THUS, AN IMPROVEMENT OF STRUCTURE IS AWAITED OVER THE NEXT 2
DAYS. MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PLACED UNDER
THE UPPER TROUGH, THE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SHOULD THUS BECOME LOW. A
CLIMATOLOGICAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECASTED, THE SEVERE TROPICAL
STORM STAGE IS POSSIBLE BUT THE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT REMAINS LIMITED.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON, THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG WESTERLY WIND SHEAR BOTH
IN THE UPPER AND MID LEVELS SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STORM.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOCATED CLOSE TO THE MASCARENES ISLANDS AS SOON
AS TOMORROW EVENING, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SEVERE RAINFALL.
INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO BEGIN RIGHT NOW SOME BASIC
PREPARATION WHILE MONITORING OFFICIAL INFORMATION.

jrchang5 · 2019-12-29 11:37

MFR判定29/00Z升格為熱帶低壓，未來有機會增強為中度熱帶風暴。

ZCZC 157
WTIO30 FMEE 290017 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/4/20192020
1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4
2.A POSITION 2019/12/29 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 17.3 S / 60.5 E
(SEVENTEEN DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 30 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 93 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 370 SE: 330 SW: 170 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1500 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/29 12 UTC: 19.9 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
24H: 2019/12/30 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 59.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/30 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 58.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/31 00 UTC: 21.7 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/31 12 UTC: 22.5 S / 60.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2020/01/01 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/02 00 UTC: 32.0 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
120H: 2020/01/03 00 UTC: 39.1 S / 71.2 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5-
NNNN

老農民版夜神月 · 2019-12-29 22:43

MFR29/12Z升格中度熱帶風暴,命名其為Calvinia

WTIO30 FMEE 291305
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 6/4/20192020
1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)
2.A POSITION 2019/12/29 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.4 S / 60.2 E
(NINETEEN DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 10 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/D 0.5/12 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 993 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 56 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 560 SE: 370 SW: 110 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 280 SW: 60 NW:
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1005 HPA / 600 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/30 00 UTC: 20.6 S / 59.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
24H: 2019/12/30 12 UTC: 21.2 S / 58.7 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
36H: 2019/12/31 00 UTC: 21.5 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
48H: 2019/12/31 12 UTC: 22.6 S / 59.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
60H: 2020/01/01 00 UTC: 24.7 S / 61.0 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL
STORM
72H: 2020/01/01 12 UTC: 28.1 S / 62.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/02 12 UTC: 35.7 S / 66.7 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=2.5+
LAST ASCAT DATA OF 0530UTC, HIGHLIGHTS THE STRONG ASYMMETRY OF THE
SYSTEM, WITH WINDS OF 35KT LOCALLY 40KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEMI-CERCLE, SO THE HAS BEEN NAMED.
OVER THE LAST HOURS, CONVECTION HAS REBUILT NEAR THE CENTER IN THE
SOUTHERN SEMI-CERCLE, AS THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DECREASE.
WITHIN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE, CONVECTION REMAINS MAINLY PERTURBED
BY THE MID/HIGHT TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR.
IN TERMS OF TRACK FORECAST, THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST A RAPID
SOUTH-SOUTH-WESTWARD TRACK OVER THE NEXT 12H UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
BOTH A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE AND MAINLY THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH. MONDAY, THE DISPERSION INCREASES AS THE SYSTEM
SHOULD SLOW DOWN AS IT BUMPS INTO A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE CIRCULATING IN
THE SOUTH. THUS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRACKING SLOWLY RATHER CLOSE TO
THE MAURITIUS ISLAND NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY. SOME MODELS EVEN
FORECAST A LOOP VERY CLOSE TO MAURITIUS.
WEDNESDAY, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BE TAKEN AWAY IN THE MID-LATITUDES BY A PASSING TROUGH AND THE
PERSISTENCE OF THE RIDGE OF MIDDLE LEVEL IN THE NORTH-EAST.
TODAY, THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH ESPECIALLY UPPER
LEVEL TROPOSPHERE ASSOCIATED DRY AIR AND THE MODERATE NORTHWESTERN
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR SHOULD DISTURB THE ORGANISATION OF THE SYSTEM.
FROM TOMORROW TO TUESDAY MORNING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE PLACED
UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH AS THE TROUGH SHOULD FILL UP. THE
ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR SHOULD THUS BECOME LOW BUT DUE TO THE LACK OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE THE SYSTEM SHOULDN'T DEEPEN SIGNIFICANTLY.
MOREOVER, THE SLOW MOTION ASSOCIATED TO RELATIVELY MODERATE OCEANIC
HEAT CONTENT COULD LIMIT ALSO THE MAX INTENSITY. TUESDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW DYNAMIC UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE SYSTEM
SHOULD BEGIN TO LOOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS WHILE IT
COULD STRENGHTEN THANKS TO THE ASSOCIATED BAROLINIC PROCESSES.
THE MOST RELIABLE MODELS AGREE WITH THE FORECAST TRACK, BUT THERE IS A
BIGGER UNCERTAINTY FOR THE INTENSITY DUE TO THE BIGGER DISPERSION FOR
THE INTENSITY FORECAST BY THE SAME RELIABLE MODELS.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE LOCATED CLOSE TO THE MASCARENES ISLANDS AS SOON
AS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SEVERE RAINFALL.
INHABITANTS OF THESE ISLANDS ARE INVITED TO BEGIN RIGHT NOW SOME BASIC
PREPARATION WHILE MONITORING OFFICIAL INFORMATION.

t02436 · 2019-12-29 23:35

JTWC 12Z升格05S，上望50節。

jrchang5 · 2019-12-30 17:09

本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-12-30 17:20 編輯

MFR判定30/06Z升格為強烈熱帶風暴，漸朝模里西斯逼近。預測有機會繼續增強為熱帶氣旋，巔峰上望65kts。

ZCZC 285
WTIO30 FMEE 300710 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/4/20192020
1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 4 (CALVINIA)
2.A POSITION 2019/12/30 AT 0600 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.6 S / 58.4 E
(TWENTY DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
FIFTY EIGHT DECIMAL FOUR DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 2 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 982 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 50 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 20 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 510 SE: 560 SW: 320 NW: 130
34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 190 NW: 80
48 KT NE: 0 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 1400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/30 18 UTC: 20.6 S / 57.5 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
24H: 2019/12/31 06 UTC: 21.0 S / 57.6 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
36H: 2019/12/31 18 UTC: 22.5 S / 58.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2020/01/01 06 UTC: 25.3 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
60H: 2020/01/01 18 UTC: 29.4 S / 62.5 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
72H: 2020/01/02 06 UTC: 33.9 S / 64.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2020/01/03 06 UTC: 39.1 S / 72.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT,
POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=3.5
NNNN

老農民版夜神月 · 2020-1-1 01:23

JTWC31/15Z報T4.5,升格C1,定強70KT,並預測目前已達顛峰

TPXS10 PGTW 311530

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA)

B. 31/1500Z

C. 23.14S

D. 59.01E

E. THREE/MET8

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 4.5. MET 4.5 PT 4.5
DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE

STIGSSON

WTXS31 PGTW 311500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
311200Z --- NEAR 22.5S 58.4E
   MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
   POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
   POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 22.5S 58.4E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 24.8S 59.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 170 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        190 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
011200Z --- 26.4S 60.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 210 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        240 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 28.0S 60.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 250 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
021200Z --- 31.7S 62.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 270 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                        270 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                        160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                        170 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
311500Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 58.7E.
31DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 05S (CALVINIA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 157
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS IMPROVED OVER
THE LAST 12 HOURS AS INDICATED BY FEEDER BANDS THAT WRAPPED TIGHTER
INTO THE CENTER THAT HAS MOMENTARILY PRODUCED AN EYE. THE EYE HAS
SINCE BECOME CLOUD FILLED BUT STILL DISCERNIBLE. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE, ADJUSTED FOR A FORWARD SLANT
CAUSED BY INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 70KTS IS BASED ON AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
T4.0/65KTS TO T4.5/77KTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG
POLEWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (15-20KT) NORTHWESTERLY VWS.
SSTS IN THE AREA HAVE COOLED TO 26C. TC 05S WILL CONTINUE ON ITS
CURRENT TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE
NORTHEAST. INCREASING VWS AND COOLING SSTS WILL NOW GRADUALLY ERODE
THE SYSTEM. CONCURRENTLY BY TAU 36, IT WILL ENTER THE COLD
BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION, AND BY TAU 48,
WILL TRANSFORM INTO A 50-KT COLD CORE LOW WITH AN EXPANSIVE WIND
FIELD. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010300Z AND 011500Z.//
NNNN

jrchang5 · 2020-1-1 09:04

MFR判定31/18Z升格為熱帶氣旋，定強65kts。

WTIO31 FMEE 311837
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 15/4/20192020
1.A CYCLONE TROPICAL 4 (CALVINIA)
2.A POSITION A 1800 UTC LE 31/12/2019 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 20 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 23.8 S / 59.3 E
(VINGT TROIS DEGRES HUIT SUD ET CINQUANTE NEUF DEGRES TROIS EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 13 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: 4.5/4.5/D 0.5/6 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 973 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 65 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): 28 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 350 SE: 460 SO: 220 NO: 160
34 KT NE: 180 SE: 180 SO: 140 NO: 120
48 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SO: 70 NO: 80
64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SO: 0 NO: 0
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1009 HPA / 2200 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 01/01/2020 06 UTC: 26.7 S / 60.4 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
24H: 01/01/2020 18 UTC: 30.4 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE
TROPICALE
36H: 02/01/2020 06 UTC: 34.3 S / 63.7 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
48H: 02/01/2020 18 UTC: 37.4 S / 67.5 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
60H: 03/01/2020 06 UTC: 40.3 S / 73.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE
2.C COMMENTAIRES:
T=CI=4.5-

20200101.0000.msg1.x.ir1km_bw.05SCALVINIA.70kts-976mb-238S-593E.100pc.jpg

20200101.0000.msg1.x.ir1km.05SCALVINIA.70kts-976mb-238S-593E.100pc.jpg

jrchang5 · 2020-1-2 08:00

MFR判定01/12Z已轉化為後熱帶低壓，JTWC亦同時發布FW。

WTIO31 FMEE 011246
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 18/4/20192020
1.A DEPRESSION POST-TROPICALE 4 (EX-CALVINIA)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 01/01/2020 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 10 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 29.1 S / 61.0 E
(VINGT NEUF DEGRES UN SUD ET SOIXANTE UN DEGRES ZERO EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-SUD-EST 22 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK: NON RENSEIGNE
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE: 976 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 60 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM): NON RENSEIGNE
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 430 SE: 460 SO: 260 NO: 220
34 KT NE: 310 SE: 280 SO: 170 NO: 170
48 KT NE: 150 SE: 170 SO: 100 NO: 100
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1006 HPA / 1300 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE: MOYENNE
1.B PREVISIONS:
12H: 02/01/2020 00 UTC: 32.9 S / 62.3 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, DEPRESSION
POST-TROPICALE
24H: 02/01/2020 12 UTC: 36.4 S / 65.1 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
36H: 03/01/2020 00 UTC: 39.6 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
48H: 03/01/2020 12 UTC: 41.3 S / 77.4 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, DEPRESSION
EXTRATROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
NON RENSEIGNE