Meow

小核心就是這麼難猜

老農民版夜神月

底層建立,系統爆發性增強,JTWC預測06/00Z將達C3,JTWC15Z德法分析亦已達5.5

WTXS32 PGTW 051500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 003//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 003   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051200Z --- NEAR 9.2S 62.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.2S 62.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060000Z --- 10.1S 62.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061200Z --- 10.9S 62.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 04 KTS

TPXS11 PGTW 051530

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI)

B. 05/1500Z

C. 9.69S

D. 62.54E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D3.5/24HRS  STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. SUBTRACTED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG TO
YIELD A DT OF 5.5. MET IS 3.5. PT IS 4.0. DBO DT. CONSTRAINTS
BROKEN DUE TO SYSTEM UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


   MARTIN

jrchang5

MFR判定05/18Z升格為強烈熱帶氣旋，定強90kts。預測巔峰上望100kts。

ZCZC 090
WTIO30 FMEE 051818 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 9/3/20192020
1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI)
2.A POSITION 2019/12/05 AT 1800 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0 S / 62.5 E
(TEN    DECIMAL ZERO   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 11 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 2.0/6 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 15 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 60 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 50
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 62.1 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/06 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 62.0 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/07 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 61.9 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/07 18 UTC: 13.1 S / 61.3 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 06 UTC: 13.8 S / 60.6 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/08 18 UTC: 14.4 S / 59.9 E, VENT MAX= 025 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5
NNNN

JTWC亦認同一時間升至C3，定強100kts。

SUBJ:  TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 004   
WTXS32 PGTW 052100   
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 004   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   051800Z --- NEAR 9.9S 62.4E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM
     POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 9.9S 62.4E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   060600Z --- 11.1S 62.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   061800Z --- 12.0S 62.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   070600Z --- 13.0S 61.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 220 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   071800Z --- 13.5S 61.5E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            005 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 02 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   081800Z --- 14.1S 60.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   091800Z --- 15.0S 59.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   101800Z --- 15.9S 58.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 10.2S 62.3E.
05DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 679
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060900Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNINGS
(WTXS31 PGTW) FOR TWELVE-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

t02436

00Z速報評價140節，只花了一天從35節飆升到140...

03S AMBALI 191206 0000 10.5S 62.2E SHEM 140 924

MFR評價120KT，已達VITC

ZCZC 716
WTIO30 FMEE 060045 RRA
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/3/20192020
1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 3 (AMBALI)
2.A POSITION 2019/12/06 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.5 S / 62.2 E
(TEN    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY TWO    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.0/D 1.5/0 H
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 930 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 120 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 11 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 70 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 70
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 70 NW: 60
48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 40
64 KT NE: 30 SE: 40 SW: 30 NW: 30
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 300 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/06 12 UTC: 11.3 S / 61.8 E, VENT MAX= 100 KT, INTENSE
TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/12/07 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 61.6 E, VENT MAX= 070 KT, TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/12/07 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 61.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE
TROPICAL STORM
48H: 2019/12/08 00 UTC: 13.4 S / 60.9 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, MODERATE
TROPICAL STORM
60H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 60.1 E, VENT MAX= 035 KT, FILLING UP
72H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 14.9 S / 59.7 E, VENT MAX= 030 KT, FILLING UP
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=7.0-
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

Ambali經過昨日一整天的爆發增強,並於今日00Z左右達到顛峰後後隨即快速減弱,JTWC判定12Z已僅餘C2,90KT

WTXS32 PGTW 061500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 006//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (AMBALI) WARNING NR 006   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   061200Z --- NEAR 11.6S 62.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 11.6S 62.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   070000Z --- 12.2S 61.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   071200Z --- 12.7S 60.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   080000Z --- 13.4S 59.7E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   081200Z --- 13.9S 58.8E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   091200Z --- 14.8S 57.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
    ---
REMARKS:
061500Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 62.1E.
06DEC19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (AMBALI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
583 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM
WITH CYCLING CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH FAIR
CONFIDENCE BASED ON CONVECTIVE BANDING PRESENT TO THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE LLCC AS IS EVIDENT IN A 061200Z SSMIS 91GHZ COLOR
COMPOSITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE APPARENT
WEAKENING OF THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM FMEE AND PGTW OF 5.0 (90KTS). TC 03S CONTINUES TO
TRACK THROUGH A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST),
BUT IS WEAKENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES BEGIN TO ERODE THE
OUTFLOW CHANNELS. TC 03S IS TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A STR POSITIONED TO THE EAST. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THIS RIDGE
AND CONTINUES TO WEAKEN A SECOND DEEP LAYER RIDGE TO THE SOUTH WILL
BECOME THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM BY TAU 12, CAUSING THE
FORECAST TRACK TO TURN SOUTHWESTWARD. AS THE SYSTEM TRAVELS ALONG
THIS SOUTHWESTWARD TRACK IT WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND BEGIN TO
DISSIPATE OVER WATER BY TAU 48 AND FINISH DISSIPATING BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT OVER THE COMPLEX STEERING PATTERN
DUE TO THE COMPETING STEERING RIDGES IN THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS.
EXCLUDING NAVGEM, WHICH IS A SIGNIFICANT EASTWARD OUTLIER, THE
SPREAD IN MODEL SOLUTIONS IS 220NM BY TAU 96, LENDING ONLY FAIR
CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 061200Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070300Z AND 071500Z.
REFER TO TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S (BELNA) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW)
FOR UPDATES.//
NNNN

老農民版夜神月

MFR08/00Z判定Ambali已減弱為熱帶擾動
綜觀此系統,達中級熱帶風暴以上強度的時間僅不到3天.命名隨即RI到達顛峰後,也隨即迅速減弱消殞,擁有個短暫而璀璨的一生

WTIO30 FMEE 080132
RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)
0.A WARNING NUMBER: 18/3/20192020
1.A REMNANT LOW 3 (AMBALI)
2.A POSITION 2019/12/08 AT 0000 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.8 S / 60.9 E
(TWELVE DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND
SIXTY DECIMAL NINE DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: WEST 7 KT
3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: NIL
4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1006 HPA
5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 25 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 19 KM
6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
NIL
7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM
8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: SHALLOW
1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/12/08 12 UTC: 13.2 S / 59.2 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW
24H: 2019/12/09 00 UTC: 13.6 S / 57.8 E, VENT MAX= 020 KT, REMNANT LOW
2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
NIL
2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
ON THE SATELLITE IMAGES OF THE LATE NIGHT, A WELL DEFINED VORTEX
WITHOUT CONVECTION APPEARED WEST OF THE INTIAL ESTIMATE. IS IS LIKELY
THE REMNANTS OF AMBALI. NO DATA SUGGEST AN OTHER CIRCULATION CLOSER
TO THE CONVECTION.
THIS MINIMUM IS EXPECTED TO FILL UP WITH NO POTENTIAL FOR DEEPENING.
THIS IS THE LAST WARNING ON AMBALI.