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jrchang5|2019-11-25 10:27
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本帖最後由 jrchang5 於 2019-11-25 10:37 編輯
FMS判定25/00Z升格為澳式二級熱帶氣旋。
HURRICANE WARNING 014 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI Nov 250210 UTC.
TROPICAL CYCLONE RITA CENTRE 978HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.8 SOUTH 169.7
EAST AT 250000 UTC.
POSITION POOR.
REPEAT POSITION 11.8S 169.7E at 250000 UTC.
CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 06 KNOTS. CYCLONE GRADUALLY INTENSIFYING.
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 60 KNOTS CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS BY
250600UTC.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTER,
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
FORECAST POSITION NEAR 12.9S 170.1E AT 251200UTC AND NEAR 13.8S 170.2E AT
260000UTC.
ALL VESSELS WITHIN 300 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS
EVERY THREE HOURS TO RSMC NADI. VOS REPORTING SHIPS USE NORMAL CHANNELS. OTHER
VESSELS FAX PLUS 679 6720190 OR EMAIL NADITCC AT MET DOT GOV DOT FJ
THIS WARNING CANCELS AND REPLACES WARNING 013. 
JTWC亦判定同一時間升C1。
WTPS31 PGTW 250300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01P (RITA) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
250000Z --- NEAR 11.8S 169.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 155 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.8S 169.7E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
251200Z --- 12.8S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
260000Z --- 13.7S 169.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
261200Z --- 14.3S 169.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
270000Z --- 14.9S 169.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
280000Z --- 15.4S 169.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 15.5S 168.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
---
REMARKS:
250300Z POSITION NEAR 12.1S 169.7E.
25NOV19. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01P (RITA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 363
NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF PORT VILA, VANUATU, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 07 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 13 NM CLOUD-
FILLED EYE IN ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
EXTRAPOLATION FROM A 242150Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. THE 65 KT INITIAL
INTENSITY IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE OF T4.0 (65 KTS). GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW (5-10 KT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURE SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION. TC 01P IS TRACKING ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST. BY TAU 48, INTERACTION WITH A STR TO THE
SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY TURN TC 01P WESTWARD. DIMINISHED
OUTFLOW AND INCREASING VWS WILL HALT INTENSIFICATION BY TAU 12 AND
STEADY WEAKENING WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. NAVGEM IS THE
SOLE DETERMINISTIC MODEL SOLUTION SHOWING TC 01P GRADUALLY TURN
EASTWARD AFTER TAU 24. ALTHOUGH THE REMAINING GUIDANCE IS SIMILAR TO
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST, SPREAD IS QUITE LARGE AS SEVERAL MEMBERS
STALL THE SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS ACCELERATE IT. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST
FOLLOWS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS WITH LOW CONFIDENCE BASED ON HIGH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK GUIDANCE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT
AT 250000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 250900Z, 251500Z, 252100Z
AND 260300Z.//
NNNN 
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