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老農民版夜神月|2019-11-6 07:16
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本帖最後由 老農民版夜神月 於 2019-11-6 07:45 編輯
JTWC18Z升格25W
25W NAKRI 191105 1800 13.8N 116.0E WPAC 25 1002 WTPN32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050321ZNOV2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (NAKRI) WARNING NR 001
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 13.8N 116.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 116.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
060600Z --- 13.8N 116.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 115 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 13.7N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 00 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
070600Z --- 13.6N 116.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 13.5N 116.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 13.3N 114.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
180 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
091800Z --- 13.7N 111.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
101800Z --- 14.4N 107.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
052100Z POSITION NEAR 13.8N 116.0E.
05NOV19. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
466 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED
NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
060300Z, 060900Z, 061500Z AND 062100Z. REFER TO SUPER TYPHOON 24W
(HALONG) WARNINGS (WTPN31 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 050330).//
NNNN WDPN32 PGTW 052100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (NAKRI) WARNING
NR 01//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (NAKRI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 466 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF DA NANG, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 051408Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING,
CLOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION AND 25-30
KT WINDS DISPLACED 50-90 NM FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
SET AT 25 KTS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED ASCAT PASS, WHICH SHOWED 30-
35 KTS TO THE NORTH IN THE ENVIRONMENTAL NORTHEASTERLY SURGE, BUT
MOSTLY 25 KT WINDS WRAPPED AROUND IN A BROAD SWATH TO THE SOUTH.
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGE FROM T1.0 (25 KTS) TO T2.0
(30 KTS) FROM KNES, PGTW, AND RJTD RESPECTIVELY. EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW TAPPING INTO THE MIDLATITUDE JET TO THE NORTH IS COMPETING
WITH HIGH (20-25 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM
TO ENABLE SLOW CONSOLIDATION AND DEVELOPMENT. TD 25W HAS BEEN SLOWLY
MEANDERING EASTWARD IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA IN A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE INITIAL PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ON THIS
SYSTEM AND SETS THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 25W IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS
IN AN AMBIGUOUS STEERING ENVIRONMENT. IT WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO A
PEAK OF 60 KTS AT TAU 48 DUE TO THE ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM
(29 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, WHICH WILL BE OFFSET BY
SUSTAINED MODERATE TO HIGH VWS, WHICH WILL LIMIT TOTAL INTENSIFICATION
POTENTIAL. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST
TRACK. NAVGEM AND THE UKMET ENSEMBLE TURN 25W TO THE NORTH IN THE NEAR
TERM, WHILE GFS, THE GFS ENSEMBLE, UKMET, AND ECMWF TURN 25W SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTH IN THE NEAR TERM, WITH GFS THE SOUTHERNMOST OUTLIER. ALL
MODELS THEN REFLECT A WESTWARD TURN AND ACCELERATION AFTER TAU 48 AS A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS IN TO THE WEST AND BECOMES THE DOMINANT
STEERING FEATURE. THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK FAVORS THE SOUTHERN SOLUTION
AND IS PLACED NEAR THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND THE MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS
WITH LOW CONFIDENCE.
C. AFTER TAU 72, ALL MODELS AGREE ON A WESTWARD TRACK TOWARDS VIETNAM.
TD 25W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AFTER TAU 96. IT WILL BEGIN A
GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND AFTER TAU 72 AS UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
DECREASES, AND THEN WEAKEN MORE RAPIDLY DUE TO LAND INTERACTION AFTER
TAU 96. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK.//
NNNN 
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