老農民版夜神月

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：17 E
擾動編號日期：2019 年 10 月 14 日 19 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 10 月 17 日 19 時

98E INVEST 191014 1200 14.0N 97.0W EPAC 15 NA

  NHC：50%  

2. A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Gradual development is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next few days while the
system moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph near or just
offshore the coast of Mexico. By late this week, the proximity to
land could inhibit further development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

MAX:30,1005

t02436

NHC 03Z升格潛在熱帶氣旋17E，登陸前有望命名。

071
WTPZ42 KNHC 160248
TCDEP2

Potential Tropical Cyclone Seventeen-E Discussion Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP172019
1000 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

Although deep convection associated with the area of low pressure
near the southeastern coast of Mexico has increased since this
afternoon, the overall organization of the system has not increased
enough for it to be considered a tropical cyclone.  The system,
however, is predicted to become a tropical storm before it reaches
the southeastern coast of Mexico on Wednesday, and NHC has initiated
advisories on this system as a potential tropical cyclone.  The
government of Mexico has elected to issued a tropical storm watch
for a portion of the coast of southeastern Mexico.  The initial
intensity of the system is estimated to be 30 kt based on earlier
scatterometer data.  The disturbance is located over very warm
waters and within an area of light to moderate northeasterly shear,
which should allow for some strengthening before the system moves
inland.  The NHC intensity forecast calls for the disturbance to
become a tropical storm in 12 hours, and it is in good agreement
with the statistical guidance and the global models which show some
slight deepening.  The system should quickly weaken and dissipate
over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico after landfall.

The initial motion estimate is a somewhat uncertain 300/9 kt.  A
mid-level ridge over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to
steer the disturbance west-northwestward during the next day or so,
and this motion should bring the center on the coast within 24
hours.  The track guidance is in good agreement and the official
forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope.

The primary threat with this system will be heavy rainfall and the
potential for flash flooding and mudslides in southern Mexico during
the next day or two.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  16/0300Z 13.7N  93.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H  16/1200Z 14.6N  94.8W   35 KT  40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM
24H  17/0000Z 16.2N  96.2W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
36H  17/1200Z 17.6N  97.1W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  18/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown