蜜露

多里安颶風在巴哈馬群島(大巴哈馬島、大阿巴科島)　橫掃一片，尤其是移速很慢每小時只有10公里上下


風暴潮有７米高，多數地方都有淹水。



不過多里安颶風雖然初報是160Kts、911hPa (比艾瑪颶風的914hPa還低)


直播多數參考價值


但是更大的空拍證據，多里安颶風的風毀程度整體而言其實比不過艾瑪颶風的摧毀威力


還記得艾瑪颶風真的很猛，很多當地都有直播（至今直播應該還有留下的（直播感受是海燕颱風之後，第二就是艾瑪颶風））



而且多里安的FL也不高  不過也才161Kts


FL
2015 帕翠莎     192kts 東太
2010 梅姬       190kts 西太
1988 吉爾伯特   173kts 北大
2017 艾瑪       171kts 北大
2005 威爾瑪     168kts 北大
2007 狄安       164kts 北大
2008 薔蜜       163kts 西太
2019 多里安     161kts 北大
2017 瑪莉亞     159kts 北大

霧峰追風者

（中央社巴哈馬首都拿索4日綜合外電報導）颶風多利安（Dorian）肆虐巴哈馬造成嚴重災情，死亡人數目前攀升至20人，美國海岸防衛隊與英國皇家海軍協助救援，今天以直升機救出倖存者並運送緊急救援物資。

法新社報導，聯合國表示，大巴哈馬島（Grand Bahama）與阿巴科島（Abaco island）上有7萬人現在「急需」救援，待援人數幾乎就是兩處總人口數。同時，巴哈馬政府證實罹難人數增至20人，預料還會進一步攀升。

Embed from Getty Images

▲颶風多利安在巴哈馬群島停留一天以上後，有社區被夷為平地，還有機場與醫院被水淹沒。

巴哈馬與美國媒體報導，巴哈馬衛生部長桑茲（Duane Sands）說：「我們現在開始對罹難人數有更清楚的了解，至少是對阿巴科島與大巴哈馬島的災情來說。」

他說：「目前，阿巴科與大巴哈馬島的罹難人數攀升至20人。但請大家記得，前進淹水區、搜索民宅的搜救行動現在才要開始。」

聯合國緊急救援協調員洛科克（Mark Lowcock）在與巴哈馬總理米尼斯（Hubert Minnis）開完會後表示，大巴哈馬島上的5萬人與阿巴科島上的1.5萬到2萬人，現在急需棲身之所、安全飲用水、糧食與藥物。

Embed from Getty Images

▲颶風多利安肆虐巴哈馬造成嚴重災情，死亡人數目前攀升至20人，大規模救援正在進行中。

巴哈馬群島最北端的大巴哈馬島與阿巴科島在遭史上威力數一數二的大西洋颶風重創後，紅十字會幹部麥克安德魯（Stephen McAndrew）表示，救援行動「最重要的就是速度」。

美國海岸防衛隊與英國皇家海軍的直升機協助醫療救援、進行空中評估協調救援行動，並展開偵察飛行來評估災情。

路透社報導，巴哈馬總理米尼斯在記者會上說：「我們遭遇史上最嚴重的全國危機之一，預料死亡人數將攀升，這只是初步資訊。」

大巴哈馬島千禧大教堂（Jubilee Cathedral）牧師威廉斯（LaQuez Williams）開放教堂作為約150名災民的避難處。他說，他看到有災民爬到屋頂求援。

威廉斯說：「有人求救卻救不到他們。情況真的很艱困，讓人覺得很無助。」

美國有線電視新聞網（CNN）報導，空拍畫面顯示，阿巴科島綿延數公里的街區嚴重淹水，翻覆的船隻與貨櫃像玩具般散落各處，許多建築牆壁倒塌、屋頂被掀飛。

t02436

昨天00Z一度重回C3，今天00Z已減弱為90節，中心即將通過北卡。

05L DORIAN 190906 0000 33.4N 77.9W ATL 90 958
05L DORIAN 190905 1800 32.7N 78.9W ATL 95 958
05L DORIAN 190905 1200 32.1N 79.2W ATL 100 959
05L DORIAN 190905 0600 31.4N 79.6W ATL 100 957
05L DORIAN 190905 0000 30.7N 79.7W ATL 100 958
05L DORIAN 190904 1800 30.1N 79.7W ATL 90 964
05L DORIAN 190904 1200 29.5N 79.6W ATL 90 964
05L DORIAN 190904 0600 28.8N 79.2W ATL 95 964
05L DORIAN 190904 0000 28.1N 78.8W ATL 95 959
05L DORIAN 190903 1800 27.5N 78.7W ATL 95 959
05L DORIAN 190903 1200 27.1N 78.4W ATL 100 954

931
WTNT45 KNHC 052051
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  50
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM EDT Thu Sep 05 2019

During the last 12 h, Dorian appears to have started the expected
slow weakening trend.  Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data show
that the central pressure inside the 35-45 n mi wide eye is slowly
rising, and satellite imagery indicates that the eye is becoming
less well defined.  The current Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
reported maximum SFMR surface wind estimates of 88 kt, along with
700 mb flight-level winds of 91 kt. Based on these data, the initial
intensity is reduced to 90 kt.

The hurricane is continuing its expected northeastward turn, and the
initial motion is now 035/9.  The mid-latitude westerlies should
steer Dorian generally northeastward at an increasing forward speed,
with the eye passing near of over portions of the North Carolina
coast during the next 12-24 h.  After that, Dorian is forecast to
move quickly across the northwest Atlantic and be near or over the
Canadian Maritimes/Atlantic provinces by 60 h.  As was the case in
the previous advisory, the track guidance remains tightly clustered,
and the new forecast track is changed little from the previous
one.

Due to increasing shear, Dorian is forecast to slowly weaken as it
moves near and along the South and North Carolina coasts.
Extratropical transition should begin around 36-48 h and be complete
by 60 h, although Dorian is forecast to maintain hurricane-force
winds through the transition.  After transition is complete, the
extratropical low should weaken over the far north Atlantic and be
absorbed into a larger low pressure area by 120 h.

The center of Dorian is expected to move very near or over the
coastline of the Carolinas and the southern Mid-Atlantic states.
Residents of these areas should already be prepared for damaging
winds, life-threatening storm surges, and flooding rains.  It also
appears that Dorian will affect portion of eastern Canada as a
hurricane-force extratropical low.

Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge and dangerous winds are expected
along portions the coasts of South Carolina and North Carolina, and
portions of southeast Virginia and the southern Chesapeake Bay,
regardless of the exact track of Dorian's center.  Water levels
could rise well in advance of the arrival of strong winds. Residents
in these areas should follow advice given by local emergency
officials.

2. Flash flooding is occurring, and will continue to become more
widespread across the eastern Carolinas and far southeast Virginia
through tonight. There is a high risk of flash flooding over these
areas, where significant, life-threatening, flash flooding is
expected.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 33.1N  78.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
12H  06/0600Z 34.2N  77.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
24H  06/1800Z 36.0N  74.4W   85 KT 100 MPH
36H  07/0600Z 38.5N  70.4W   80 KT  90 MPH
48H  07/1800Z 42.0N  65.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
72H  08/1800Z 50.0N  57.5W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  09/1800Z 56.0N  45.5W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

Meow

值得紀念

t02436

加速北上中，預計一天內登陸加拿大新斯科細亞省

000
WTNT45 KNHC 070249
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  55
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 06 2019

During the past couple of hours Dorian's eye has become no longer
apparent in conventional satellite imagery. Microwave data shows an
eye-like feature just to the south of the convection, and also
indicates that the hurricane is becoming asymmetric. The lack of
symmetry is the first indication or hint that Dorian is slowly
beginning to acquire some extratropical characteristics. The rain
shield is now placed to the northwest of the center, and the wind
field is expanding in the southern semicircle.  Dvorak numbers are
either steady or have decreased slightly, and consequently the
initial intensity is kept at 80 kt in this advisory.

The hurricane is rapidly reaching cooler waters and guidance shows
an area of significantly strong shear along the forecast path
of Dorian. Given these conditions, the NHC forecast calls for
gradual weakening, but Dorian is still expected to make landfall in
Nova Scotia with hurricane intensity late Saturday. Dorian is
forecast to complete its transition to extratropical once it crosses
Nova Scotia.

The hurricane is racing northeastward or 045 degrees at 22 kt. Since
Dorian is already embedded within a fast southwesterly flow ahead of
a mid-latitude trough, the current northeast heading should
continue until dissipation occurs in about 3 days, if not sooner.
The track guidance is in remarkably good agreement, and the NHC
forecast is in the middle of the guidance envelope, increasing the
confidence in the track forecast.

Key Messages:

1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions
of eastern Canada. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in
portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and
eastern Nova Scotia this weekend. Hurricane-force winds are also
likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island and possibly
Newfoundland Saturday and Sunday. Refer to information from the
Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/0300Z 38.3N  70.2W   80 KT  90 MPH
12H  07/1200Z 40.8N  66.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
24H  08/0000Z 45.0N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...INLAND
36H  08/1200Z 49.0N  59.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  09/0000Z 52.0N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  10/0000Z 56.0N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

t02436

逐漸轉化中，中心已在近岸，即將以颶風強度登陸。

000
WTNT45 KNHC 071452
TCDAT5

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number  57
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 AM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

Satellite imagery this morning indicates that Dorian is starting
extratropical transition, with cold air clouds entraining into the
southwestern side of the cyclone and a developing warm front to the
north and east.  However, the cyclone still has persistent
convection just north and northeast of the center, so it remains a
hurricane on this advisory.  NOAA buoy 44011 reported a minimum
pressure of 955.3 mb as the center passed just to the west, so the
initial central pressure is lowered to 953 mb.  The initial
intensity remains 75 kt based partly on recently-received WindSat
data showing hurricane-force winds southwest of the center.

Dorian continues to move rapidly northeastward with an initial
motion of 040/25 kt.  The current motion should bring the center
of Dorian over central and eastern Nova Scotia in about 12 h and
near or over Prince Edward Island shortly thereafter.  Subsequently,
Dorian is forecast to move near or through northern Newfoundland
and southeastern Labrador before turning east-northeastward over the
far north Atlantic.  There are no significant changes to the
previous forecast, and the new forecast is again close to the
various consensus aids.

Dorian is expected to complete extratropical transition during the
next 24 h as it merges with a strong mid- to upper-level trough and
associated surface frontal zone.  The global models agree on a
gradual decay of the winds after transition is complete.  However,
the cyclone will likely still be producing hurricane-force winds as
it moves through portions of eastern Canada.  The global models also
agree that the post-tropical cyclone should become absorbed by
another extratropical low in 2-3 days.  The NHC intensity forecast
again leans towards the GFS and ECMWF models, which typically handle
large extratropical lows better that than the intensity models that
are made for tropical cyclones.


Key Messages:

1. Regardless of whether it is a hurricane or a post-tropical
cyclone, Dorian is expected to have a significant impact in portions
of eastern Canada beginning during the next several hours. Dangerous
storm surge impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St.
Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia.
Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia, Prince Edward
Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer to
information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more information
on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/1500Z 42.0N  66.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
12H  08/0000Z 45.1N  63.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...OVER NOVA SCOTIA
24H  08/1200Z 48.9N  59.7W   65 KT  75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  09/0000Z 51.7N  54.6W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  09/1200Z 54.2N  47.8W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

t02436

21Z報判定為後熱帶氣旋

ZCZC MIATCDAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number  59
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
500 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that Dorian has
lost tropical cyclone characteristics and is now a hurricane-force
extratropical low.  The initial intensity is held at 85 kt based
mainly on the earlier scatterometer data.

The initial motion is 040/26.  Strong mid-latitude southwesterly
flow should steer Dorian across Nova Scotia and other portions of
eastern Canada during the next 24-30 h.  After that, the cyclone
should turn east-northeastward over the far north Atlantic, with
this motion continuing for the rest of the system's life.

Global model guidance indicates that the post-tropical cyclone
should gradually weaken as it moves across eastern Canada, and the
new intensity forecast brings the winds below hurricane force by 24
h.  Additional weakening should then occur until the storm is
absorbed by a large extratropical low to its north.

The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on
Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern
Canada has ended.

Key Messages:

1. Although Dorian has lost tropical cyclone characteristics, it
will have significant impacts in portions of eastern Canada tonight
and Sunday. Dangerous storm surge impacts are likely in portions of
the Gulf of St. Lawrence, southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova
Scotia.  Hurricane-force winds are also likely in Nova Scotia,
Prince Edward Island and Newfoundland later today and tonight. Refer
to information from the Canadian Hurricane Centre for more
information on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  07/2100Z 43.9N  63.9W   85 KT 100 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H  08/0600Z 47.0N  61.1W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  08/1800Z 50.2N  56.9W   60 KT  70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  09/0600Z 53.0N  50.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  09/1800Z 55.4N  43.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  10/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

2215Z登陸加拿大新斯科舍

ZCZC MIATCUAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
705 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

...DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL OVER NOVA SCOTIA...

Satellite and surface observations indicate that the center of
Dorian has made landfall at 615 PM AST (2215 UTC) near Sambro Creek
in Nova Scotia, Canada, or about 15 miles (25 km) south of Halifax.
The estimated maximum sustained winds at landfall were 100 mph (155
km/h), and the estimated central pressure was 958 mb (28.29 inches).


SUMMARY OF 705 PM AST...2305 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.7N 63.4W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM NE OF HALIFAX NOVA SCOTIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...958 MB...28.29 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Blake/Avila


NNNN

天篷大元帥

轉化後，美國國家颶風中心仍持續發報，以前有這樣過嗎？

000
WTNT45 KNHC 080233
TCDAT5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian Discussion Number  60
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052019
1100 PM AST Sat Sep 07 2019

The center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Dorian made landfall near
Sambro Creek, Nova Scotia several hours ago. Since then, the
powerful cyclone has continued to move rapidly to the
north-northeast and is now just east of Prince Edward Island.  The
wind field has expanded considerably, and the cyclone is producing
tropical-storm-force winds over an extensive area of the Canadian
Maritimes.  The powerful cyclone is expected to continue with a
large wind field, but gradual weakening is anticipated as forecast
by most of the global models.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the north-
northeast at 23 kt. Since the cyclone is embedded within the fast
extratropical westerly flow, this general track with a turn to
the northeast is anticipated until dissipation in about 2 days.
Track guidance is in very good agreement with this motion, and the
NHC forecast follows the guidance envelope.

The Ocean Prediction Center (OPC) provided guidance to prepare
this forecast.

The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on
Dorian as a post-tropical cyclone until the threat to eastern
Canada has ended.

Key Messages:

1. Dorian will continue to have significant impacts in portions
of eastern Canada overnight and Sunday. Dangerous storm surge
impacts are likely in portions of the Gulf of St. Lawrence,
southwestern Newfoundland and eastern Nova Scotia.  Hurricane-force
winds are still occurring in Nova Scotia and are forecast to occur
in Newfoundland overnight. Refer to information from the Canadian
Hurricane Centre for more information on these hazards.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 46.3N  62.1W   80 KT  90 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
12H  08/1200Z 49.0N  60.0W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H  09/0000Z 52.0N  54.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H  09/1200Z 54.5N  48.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H  10/0000Z 56.0N  41.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Avila

上為國家颶風中心報文原文，下為機器翻譯(機器翻譯僅供參考，實際以原文為主)

000
WTNT45 KNHC 080233
TCDAT5

後熱帶氣旋多里安討論第60號
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
晚上11點，星期六，2019年7月7日

後熱帶氣旋多里安中心登陸附近
幾個小時前，新斯科舍省Sambro Creek。從那以後，
強大的旋風繼續迅速向
東北偏北，現在位於愛德華王子島以東。該
風場大大擴展，旋風正在產生
熱帶風暴強風肆虐加拿大廣大地區
濱海。強大的旋風預計將持續下去
大風場，但預計會逐漸減弱
大部分全球模特。

對初始運動的最佳估計是朝向北方 -
東北23千噸。由於旋風器嵌入在快速內
溫帶西風流，這個一般的軌道轉向
預計東北部將在大約2天內消散。
跟踪指導與此動議非常一致，並且
NHC預測遵循指導範圍。

海洋預測中心（OPC）為準備工作提供了指導
這個預測。

國家颶風中心將繼續發布諮詢意見
多利安作為後熱帶氣旋直到東部受到威脅
加拿大已經結束。

關鍵信息：

多利安將繼續對部分產生重大影響
加拿大東部一夜之間和周日。危險的風暴潮
影響很可能在聖勞倫斯灣的部分地區，
紐芬蘭西南部和新斯科舍省東部。颶風力
新斯科舍省仍然存在風，預計會發生
在紐芬蘭一夜之間。請參閱加拿大的信息
颶風中心了解有關這些危害的更多信息。


預測位置和最大風

INIT 08 / 0300Z 46.3N 62.1W 80 KT 90 MPH ...熱帶地區
12H 08 / 1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 70 KT 80 MPH ... POST-TROP / EXTRATROP
24H 09 / 0000Z 52.0N 54.5W 55 KT 65 MPH ... POST-TROP / EXTRATROP
36H 09 / 1200Z 54.5N 48.0W 45 KT 50 MPH ...後滴/外接
48H 10 / 0000Z 56.0N 41.0W 40 KT 45 MPH ... POST-TROP / EXTRATROP
72H 11 / 0000Z ......已棄用

$$
預報員阿維拉