簽到天數: 868 天 [LV.10]以壇為家III
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jrchang5|2019-9-13 17:55
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JTWC 13/0930Z發布TCFA。
WTPN21 PGTW 130930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 18.8N 131.8E TO 24.7N 134.6E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 091306Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 132.2E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT 03 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 19.0N 132.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.3N 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY 490
NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS ASSESSED AS A
CIRCULATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MONSOON
GYRE. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 130114Z ASCAT-C IMAGE DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH DIRECTLY-ASSOCIATED 15-20 KT WINDS
TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. A 130625 SSMI 85GHZ IMAGE ALSO SHOWS A CLOSED,
AND NEARLY SYMMETRIC, LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. STRONGER WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 35 KNOTS ARE EVIDENT FARTHER TO THE SOUTH OF CIRCULATION, ALONG
THE PERIPHERY OF THE MONSOON GYRE WITHIN WHICH INVEST 95W IS
EMBEDDED. THIS DISTURBANCE IS LOCATED IN AN AREA MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH DIFFLUENT UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS), OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (15-20 KNOTS). GLOBAL MODELS PREDICT THAT 95W WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE AS IT TRACKS GENERALLY POLEWARD OVER
THE NEXT FEW DAYS ALONG WITH THE MONSOON GYRE WITHIN WHICH IT IS
EMBEDDED. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS, WITH NOTED STRONGER WINDS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 997 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
140930Z.//
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