(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 20.7N 128.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 129.3E, APPROXIMATELY
87 NM EAST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 262047Z 89GHZ MHS MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICT
CONVECTION CONFINED EAST OF A REGION OF SHARP SURFACE TROUGHING. THE
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY UNDER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. IN ADDITION, 94W IS ALSO UNDER A
TIGHT GRADIENT OF MARGINAL (15-25 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WEAK
UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE BECOMING MARGINAL
AND CONTINUE TO TRAIL OFF NEAR THE COAST OF JAPAN. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND TAKES ON
EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 270100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
