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mathew12310|2011-7-24 15:00
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顯示全部樓層
THE AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 12.3N 129.7E IS NOW LOCATED
NEAR 12.4N 128.9E, APPROXIMATELY 470 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA,
PHILIPPINES. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS CONVECTION
SLOWLY BUILDING OVER A WELL-DEFINED, ALBEIT EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS WEAK
BANDING ALONG THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERY THAT HAS DEEPENED
OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST TO THE WEST OF A RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW,
HOWEVER, A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TO OPEN A POLEWARD
OOUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. COINCIDENTALLY, AS THE
SYSTEM GAINS LATITUDE, THE VWS WILL RELAX AND PROMOTE FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 17 TO
22 KNOTS BASED ON RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA AND EXTRAPOLATED FROM
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. SEE REF A (WTPN21 PGTW 240630) FOR FURTHER
DETAILS. DUE TO INCREASED ORGANIZATION AND IMPROVING ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. |
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