霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z首報,上望105kts。

WTXS32 PGTW 192100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 001//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190251ZMAR2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA) WARNING NR 001   
   02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   191800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 119.7E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 119.7E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   200600Z --- 15.2S 119.0E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   201800Z --- 15.5S 118.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   210600Z --- 15.9S 117.4E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 07 KTS
    ---
   EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
   48 HRS, VALID AT:
   211800Z --- 16.9S 116.3E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 03 KTS
    ---
   72 HRS, VALID AT:
   221800Z --- 17.9S 115.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
    ---
   96 HRS, VALID AT:
   231800Z --- 19.6S 115.9E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS
    ---
   120 HRS, VALID AT:
   241800Z --- 21.3S 115.6E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
192100Z POSITION NEAR 15.0S 119.5E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 21S (VERONICA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 546 NM
NORTHEAST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD
AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH
IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING AND A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE
OBSCURING THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191743Z AMSR2
89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING
TIGHTLY INTO THE LLCC, WHICH IS POSITIONED UNDER OR JUST TO THE
NORTH OF THE CORE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT
40 KNOTS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T2.5
TO T3.0 (35 TO 45 KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TC 21S
IS FORECAST TO TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 36 ALONG THE
NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED OVER
WESTERN AUSTRALIA. AFTER TAU 36, A MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
(TROUGH AXIS CURRENTLY EVIDENT NEAR 95E IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY) IS
FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER WESTERN AUSTRALIA. THIS WILL SHIFT THE STR
EAST OF THE SYSTEM IN A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION, WHICH WILL
TURN TC 21S ON A MORE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGH TAU 120. AFTER
TAU 72, A STRONG, BROAD LOW-LEVEL HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER
SOUTHWESTERN AUSTRALIA, WHICH WILL SERVE TO SLOW THE SYSTEM ALONG
THE NORTHWEST COAST OF AUSTRALIA AND PRODUCE A WESTWARD TRACK CHANGE
AFTER TAU 120. THIS COULD TAKE THE SYSTEM OVER OR NEAR LEARMONTH.
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM, WHICH IS ERRONEOUSLY RECURVING THE
SYSTEM THROUGH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW-LEVEL HIGH, NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH A 175NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT
TAU 120 DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING, COMPLEX SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
THEREFORE, THERE IS MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.
TC 21S IS FORECAST TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY WITH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 105
KNOTS EXPECTED BY TAU 72 THEN SLIGHT WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM NEARS
THE COAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 8 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z. REFER TO
TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (SAVANNAH) WARNINGS (WTXS31 PGTW) FOR SIX-
HOURLY UPDATES.
2. THIS CANCELS AND SUPERSEDES REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 190300).//
NNNN

jrchang5

BoM 20/06Z升格為澳式C2，預測巔峰強度上看澳式C4，可能南下威脅西澳北部濱海地區。

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0702 UTC 20/03/2019
Name: Tropical Cyclone Veronica
Identifier: 19U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 15.4S
Longitude: 118.4E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [255 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 50 knots [95 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 70 knots [130 km/h]
Central Pressure: 990 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 20 nm [35 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.5/3.5/D1.5/24HRS STT:D0.5/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 180 nm [335 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  20/1200: 15.6S 118.0E:     040 [080]:  055  [100]:  985
+12:  20/1800: 15.9S 117.5E:     055 [100]:  060  [110]:  982
+18:  21/0000: 16.1S 117.1E:     065 [125]:  070  [130]:  974
+24:  21/0600: 16.4S 116.8E:     080 [145]:  075  [140]:  970
+36:  21/1800: 16.7S 116.3E:     100 [180]:  085  [155]:  960
+48:  22/0600: 17.1S 115.8E:     120 [220]:  095  [175]:  951
+60:  22/1800: 17.6S 115.7E:     140 [255]:  100  [185]:  945
+72:  23/0600: 18.4S 115.8E:     155 [290]:  100  [185]:  944
+96:  24/0600: 20.1S 116.3E:     200 [370]:  090  [165]:  952
+120: 25/0600: 21.6S 116.2E:     290 [535]:  060  [110]:  978
REMARKS:
TC Veronica was located using animated IR/VIS imagery. Dvorak analysis is based
on a curved band pattern with wrap of around 0.9, yielding a DT of 3.5. MET is
3.5 based on a trend of D+. FT is set at 3.5. NESDIS/CIMSS ADT is 3.5 There have
not been any recent SATCON esitimates. Final intensity estimate is set at 50
knots [10-min].

The environment conditions are favourable for further development, with a shear
ridge lying over the system and abundant moisture due to a surge in monsoonal
northwesterlies over the Indonesian Archipelago to the north of the system. SSTs
are very favourable [>30C]. There is strong upper divergence over the system,
with both poleward and equatorward outflow channels present in satellite imagery
and indicated in the upper wind analysis from CIMSS. Consistent with the
favourable environment, guidance is indicating the potential for rapid
development.

The system motion is currently to the west southwest due to a weak upper ridge
over Australia. In the longer term an upper trough may assist in south to
southeastward motion towards the Pilbara coast later in the week or over the
weekend. The system is expected to be moving slowly southwards as it approaches
the coast.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1330 UTC by Perth TCWC.

霧峰追風者

BoM 強度升澳式C3，對流猛爆增強中，顛峰上望100kt。

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1308 UTC 20/03/2019
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica
Identifier: 19U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 15.8S
Longitude: 118.0E
Location Accuracy: within 25 nm [45 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [240 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 65 knots [120 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Central Pressure: 976 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.5/4.5/D2.0/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  20/1800: 16.1S 117.6E:     035 [070]:  070  [130]:  972
+12:  21/0000: 16.2S 117.2E:     050 [090]:  075  [140]:  967
+18:  21/0600: 16.3S 116.9E:     060 [115]:  080  [150]:  963
+24:  21/1200: 16.4S 116.7E:     075 [135]:  085  [155]:  958
+36:  22/0000: 16.8S 116.2E:     095 [175]:  095  [175]:  948
+48:  22/1200: 17.2S 116.1E:     115 [210]:  100  [185]:  942
+60:  23/0000: 17.8S 116.2E:     130 [245]:  100  [185]:  943
+72:  23/1200: 18.6S 116.5E:     150 [280]:  095  [175]:  947
+96:  24/1200: 20.8S 116.6E:     195 [365]:  090  [165]:  950
+120: 25/1200: 22.8S 116.1E:     285 [525]:  040  [075]:  990
REMARKS:
Severe TC Veronica has rapidly intensified and was located using EIR and
Microwave imagery. Confidence in the position is reasonably high as an eye has
become visible in satellite imagery and recent microwave passes.

GMI microwave image at 1011 UTC showed deep convection wrapping almost
completely around the centre.

Dvorak analysis is based on an eye pattern, giving a DT of 5.0 [averaged over 3
hours]. MET is
4.0 based on a trend of D+ with a PAT adjustment yielding 4.5. FT/CI is set at
4.5. CIMSS ADT CI was 4.3. NESDIS ADT CI was 3.8. There have not been any recent
SATCON estimates. Final intensity estimate is set at 65 knots [10-min].

The environmental conditions are favourable for further development, with a
shear ridge lying over the system and abundant moisture. CIMSS shear at 09 UTC
was E'ly around 10 knots. SSTs are very favourable, around 30C. There is strong
upper divergence over the system, with both poleward and equatorward outflow
channels present in satellite imagery and indicated in the upper wind analysis
from CIMSS. Consistent with the favourable environment, guidance is indicating
the potential for rapid development.

The system motion is currently to the west southwest due to a weak upper ridge
over Australia. In the longer term an upper trough may assist in south to
southeastward motion towards the Pilbara coast later in the week or over the
weekend. The system is expected to be moving slowly southwards as it approaches
the coast.

There is a significant risk of a category 4 coastal impact in the Pilbara region
of Western Australia over the weekend or early next week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 20/1930 UTC by Perth TCWC.

krichard2011

這隻看來要領先一步了
目前看起來即將開啟針眼

老農民版夜神月

快速爆發性增強,T值數小時內已飆升至6.0

TPXS10 PGTW 201836

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA)

B. 20/1800Z

C. 15.89S

D. 117.67E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/D3.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. MG EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 6.0. MET YIELDS A
4.0 AND PT YIELDS A 5.0. DBO DT. BROKE CONSTRAINTS OF +2.5 TNO
OVER 24HRS,

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

21S VERONICA 190320 1800 15.9S 117.6E SHEM 110 948

JTWC也迅速將定強幾乎向上翻了一倍,已調整至C3上限



環境十分優良,系統本身也夠爭氣,BoM上望澳式C5

jrchang5

BoM判定20/18Z升格為澳式C4。巔峰強度雖上看澳式C5，但不致以巔峰之姿侵襲西澳北部。

IDW27600
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1907 UTC 20/03/2019
Name: Severe Tropical Cyclone Veronica
Identifier: 19U
Data At: 1800 UTC
Latitude: 15.9S
Longitude: 117.6E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: west southwest [255 deg]
Speed of Movement: 4 knots [7 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 90 knots [165 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 125 knots [230 km/h]
Central Pressure: 954 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 50 nm [95 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of Maximum Winds: 15 nm [30 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS STT:D1.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 140 nm [260 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  21/0000: 16.1S 117.3E:     025 [050]:  095  [175]:  949
+12:  21/0600: 16.3S 117.0E:     040 [070]:  100  [185]:  943
+18:  21/1200: 16.5S 116.8E:     050 [095]:  105  [195]:  937
+24:  21/1800: 16.6S 116.6E:     065 [120]:  105  [195]:  937
+36:  22/0600: 17.0S 116.2E:     085 [155]:  110  [205]:  932
+48:  22/1800: 17.4S 116.2E:     105 [190]:  110  [205]:  931
+60:  23/0600: 18.1S 116.4E:     125 [230]:  110  [205]:  937
+72:  23/1800: 19.0S 116.8E:     140 [265]:  105  [195]:  942
+96:  24/1800: 20.1S 117.0E:     185 [345]:  090  [165]:  949
+120: 25/1800: 21.5S 116.8E:     275 [505]:  050  [095]:  984
REMARKS:
Severe TC Veronica has rapidly intensified and was located using EIR imagery.
Confidence in the position is reasonably high as an eye is visible in satellite
imagery.

Dvorak analysis is based on an eye pattern, giving a DT of 6.0 [averaged over 3
hours]. MET is 4.5 based on a trend of D+ with a PAT adjustment yielding 5.
FT/CI is set at 5.5. CIMSS ADT CI was 4.9 [raw 6.8]. NESDIS ADT CI was 3.9.
SATCON at 1055UTC was 83 knots [1min]. Final intensity estimate is set at 90
knots [10-min].

The environmental conditions are favourable as is evident by the rapid
intensification over the last 12 hours. A shear ridge lies over the system and
there is an abundant amount of moisture. CIMSS shear at 13 UTC was E'ly around 7
knots. SSTs are very favourable, around 30C. There is strong upper divergence
over the system, with both poleward and equatorward outflow channels present in
satellite imagery and indicated in the upper wind analysis from CIMSS.

The system motion is currently to the west southwest due to a weak upper ridge
over Australia. In the longer term an upper trough may assist in south to
southeastward motion towards the Pilbara coast later in the week or over the
weekend. The system is expected to be moving slowly southwards as it approaches
the coast where the environment becomes less favourable with increasing wind
shear. There is some model guidance suggesting that the system could slow
further before reaching the coast on Sunday or Monday and then possibly begin
moving to the west. This could result in the cyclone remaining near or just
offshore the west Pilbara coast for a couple days early next week.

There is a significant risk of a category 4 coastal impact in the Pilbara region
of Western Australia over the weekend or early next week.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 21/0130 UTC by Perth TCWC.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z巔峰上望五級颶風。

霧峰追風者

JTWC 00Z強度升四級颶風125kts,分析到T6.5。

SH, 21, 2019032100,   , BEST,   0, 164S, 1177E, 125,  929, TY,  34, NEQ,  160,  170,  150,  135, 1005,  190,  15,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,   VERONICA,  ,
SH, 21, 2019032100,   , BEST,   0, 164S, 1177E, 125,  929, TY,  50, NEQ,   70,   80,   70,   60, 1005,  190,  15,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,   VERONICA,  ,
SH, 21, 2019032100,   , BEST,   0, 164S, 1177E, 125,  929, TY,  64, NEQ,   40,   45,   35,   30, 1005,  190,  15,   0,   0,    ,   0,    ,   0,   0,   VERONICA,  ,

TXXS27 KNES 210016
TCSSIO
A.  21S (VERONICA)
B.  20/2330Z
C.  16.3S
D.  117.7E
E.  ONE/HIMAWARI-8
F.  T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS
G.  IR/EIR
H.  REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR DATA. OW
EYE SURROUNDED BY CMG RING AND EMBEDDED IN W YIELDS E#=6.0 AND +0.5 FOR
EYE ADJUSTMENT. DT=6.5 MET=5.0 PT=5.5. 6-HR AVERAGING OF DT FOR RAPID
INTENSIFICATION ALSO YIELDS DT=6.5 THAT OVERCOMES CONSTRAINTS LIMITING
MAX CHANGES IN FT OVER 18 HRS TO 2.0 AND OVER 24 HRS TO 2.5. FT OF 6.5
IS BASED ON RAPID INTENSIFICATION.
I.  ADDL POSITIONS
    NIL
...VELASCO

TPXS10 PGTW 210019
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 21S (VERONICA)
B. 20/2350Z
C. 16.37S
D. 117.70E
E. ONE/HMWRI8
F. T6.5/6.5/D3.5/24HRS  STT: S0.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 6.5. MET YIELDS A 4.5 ND PT YIELDS A 5.5. DBO DT. BROKE
CONTRAINTS OF +1.5 TNO CHANGE OVER 24 HRS DUE TO SYSTEMS RAPID
INTENSIFICATION.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
   20/1852Z  15.92S  117.67E  SSMI
   BERMEA