jrchang5

FMS判定26/20Z升格為澳式C2。
發展迅速，風眼隱現，巔峰上望澳式C3。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A10 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 262120 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 984HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7S 176.4W AT
262000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 17 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 50 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BAND TRYING TO WRAP ONTO LLCC.
OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM LIES
IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE.OUTFLOW GOOD
TO THE SOUTH. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 300HPA. SST IS AROUND 28-29
DEGREES CELCIUS. POLA IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH BY THE BY THE SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON 0.9-1.0 WRAP ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YIELDS DT=3.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. YIELDING
T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 270800 UTC 20.3S 177.7W MOV SW AT 10KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 272000 UTC 21.9S 178.3W MOV SSW AT 09KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 280800 UTC 23.7S 178.6W MOV S AT 09KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 282000 UTC 25.4S 178.8W MOV S AT 09KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

HE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON POLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 270200 UTC.

t02436

FMS 00Z評價60節，已達二級熱帶氣旋上限，上望70節。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A11 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 270148 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 975HPA CATEGORY 2 WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.4S 177.0W AT
270000 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI IR/EIR VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 60 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 47 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

EYE CLOUD FILLED BUT DISCERNIBLE. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH
PRIMARY BAND WRAPPING TIGHTLY ONTO LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD.
SYSTEM
LIES IN A MODERATE TO HIGH SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER
DIVERGENCE.OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 300HPA.
SST IS AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON LG EYE SURROUNDED BY
LG YIELDS DT=4.5. MET=4.0 AND PT=4.0.FT BASED ON PT DUE TO FT CONSTRAINTS. THUS,
YIELDING T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 271200 UTC 21.2S 177.8W MOV SSW AT 10KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 280000 UTC 23.0S 178.2W MOV SSW AT 09KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 25.1S 178.4W MOV S AT 10KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 27.0S 178.2W MOV S AT 10KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

HE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON POLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 270800 UTC.

JTWC則評價65節，已達C1

jrchang5

FMS判定27/06Z升格為澳式C3，近中心最大風速達65kts，仍有繼續增強的趨勢。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A12 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 270804 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 972HPA CATEGORY 3 WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.0S
177.5W AT 270600 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI IR/EIR IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.
MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 65 KNOTS
CLOSE TO THE CENTRE INCREASING TO 70 KNOTS BY 271800 UTC.


EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH PRIMARY BAND CONTINUING TO WRAP ONTO
LLCC. OVERALL ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE LAST 6 HOURS. SYSTEM
LIES IN A LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE.
OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION EXTENDS UPTO 250HPA.
SST IS AROUND 29 DEGREES CELCIUS. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EMBEDED CENTER IN
BLACK GIVES A DT=5.0, MET=4.0 AND PT=4.5. FT BASED ON PT DUE TO FT CONSTRAINTS.
THUS YIELDING T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 271800 UTC 21.8S 178.2W MOV SSW AT 10 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 280600 UTC 23.8S 178.7W MOV SSW AT 10 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 25.9S 178.8W MOV SSW AT 10 KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 27.6S 178.2W MOV S AT 09 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

HE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON POLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 271400 UTC.

jrchang5

FMS判定28/00Z再升格為澳式C4，中心氣壓950hpa，近中心最大風速達90kts。強度已近巔峰。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A15 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 280154 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 950HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2S 178.0W AT
280000 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI IR/EIR, VISIBLE IMAGERY AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 09 KNOTS. MAXIMUM
10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 130 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 150 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

RAGGAED EYE PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT WITH BAND
WRAPPING TIGHTLY ONTO LLCC. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM
LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE.OUTFLOW GOOD. SST
AROUND 28-29 DEGREES CELCIUS. POLA IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST BY
THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE
PATTERN WITH B EYE, W SURROUND RING AND EYE ADJUSTMENT WITH BANDING FEATURE
YIELDS DT=5.5. MET=5.5 AND PT=5.5. FT BASED ON DT. THUS, YIELDING
T5.5/5.0/D1.5/24HRS.


FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281200 UTC 24.0S 178.4W MOV SSW AT 09KT WITH 90 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 25.8S 178.6W MOV S AT 09KT WITH 85 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 27.3S 178.1W MOV SSE AT 08KT WITH 75 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 28.0S 176.8W MOV SE AT 07KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON POLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 280800 UTC.

JTWC亦認28/00Z近中心最大風速升為85kts，已達辛普森颶風等級的C2。

16P POLA
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 28, 2019:

Location: 22.2°S 178.1°W
Maximum Winds: 85 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 mb

jrchang5

JTWC於28/06Z再將近中心最大風速調升為95kts，強度已近巔峰。

16P POLA
As of 06:00 UTC Feb 28, 2019:

Location: 23.4°S 178.0°W
Maximum Winds: 95 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 mb

FMS則與上一報強度相同，依然維持90kts。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A16 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 280804 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 950HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.4S 177.9W AT
280600 UTC. POSITION GOOD BASED ON HR HIMAWARI IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 12 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES OF CENTRE.
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

WELL DEFINED EYE PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED. DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS PERSISTENT.
ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD. SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW GOOD. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. POLA IS BEING
STEERED TO THE SOUTH BY THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST. DVORAK
ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN WITH MG EYE AND LG SURROUND WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT
BUT WITH BANDING FEATURE, YIELDS DT=5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT. THUS,
YIELDING T5.5/5.0/D1.0/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 281800 UTC 25.2S 178.1W MOV S AT 09 KT WITH 90 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 010600 UTC 27.0S 177.7W MOV S AT 09 KT WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 011800 UTC 28.2S 176.4W MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 75 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 020600 UTC 28.8S 174.0W MOV SSE AT 08 KT WITH 70 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON POLA WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 281400 UTC.

jrchang5

強度係於28/06Z達到巔峰，其後便逐漸減弱。
FMS已於28/12Z發出最後一報，JTWC則判定01/00Z近中心最大風速降為75kts(C1)，預計將逐漸轉向東進，並逐漸轉化為溫帶氣旋。

WTPS31 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 013//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 013   
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   010000Z --- NEAR 26.0S 177.8W
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 160 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            175 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.0S 177.8W
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   011200Z --- 27.5S 176.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 11 KTS
    ---
   24 HRS, VALID AT:
   020000Z --- 28.3S 174.5W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            200 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            190 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 095 DEG/ 16 KTS
    ---
   36 HRS, VALID AT:
   021200Z --- 28.4S 170.8W
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   EXTRATROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
010300Z POSITION NEAR 26.4S 177.5W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 519 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF SUVA, FIJI, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A SYSTEM BEGINNING TO UNRAVEL WITH WARMING
CLOUD TOPS. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON A
282146Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATING WEAKENING, TIGHTLY
CURVED BANDING WRAPPING AROUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MODERATELY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
OF MODERATE (20-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), MARGINALLY
FAVORABLE (27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND A STRONG
POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER, WITHIN THE NEXT 12
HOURS, TC 16P WILL DRIVE INTO HIGH (30-40 KT) VWS AND COOLER SST (26
CELSIUS), PROMPTING THE START OF THE TRANSITION TO AN EXTRATROPICAL
SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 4.0/4.5 (77-90 KNOTS) FROM PGTW AND
4.5/4.5 (77-90 KNOTS) FROM KNES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A STEERING
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) SITUATED TO THE NORTHEAST. SOUTHEASTWARD
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TAU 12 UNTIL THE SYSTEM
BEGINS TO ROUND THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED STR AS
IT ENCOUNTERS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND TURNS EASTWARD.
AFTER TAU 12, TC 16P WILL BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, COMPLETING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU 36
INTO A COLD-CORE SYSTEM WITH AN EXPANSIVE, ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO. NAVGEM, EGRR, AND GFS ARE FASTER THAN THE
MULTIMODEL CONSENSUS IN ALONG-TRACK MOTION. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS
HEDGED SLIGHTLY BEHIND CONSENSUS, TOWARDS THE 12Z ECMWF SOLUTION.
DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 24, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
010000Z IS 30 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND
020300Z.//
NNNN

t02436

補充
FMS在28日12Z報發出最終報，18Z報移交紐西蘭氣象局接續發報。

TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER A17 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Feb 281355 UTC.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE POLA CENTRE 950HPA WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.4S 177.9W AT
281200 UTC. POSITION FAIR BASED ON HR HIMAWARI IR/EIR IMAGERY AND PERIPHERAL
SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE
AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT ABOUT 90 KNOTS.

EXPECT WINDS OVER 63 KNOTS WITHIN 35 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 25 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 20 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 47 KNOTS WITHIN 70 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 40 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT
EXPECT WINDS OVER 33 KNOTS WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 120 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 100 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT

EYE GETTING CLOUD FILLED WITH CLOUD TOP WARMING. ORGANISATION REMAINS GOOD.
SYSTEM LIES IN A LOW SHEARED ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. OUTFLOW
GOOD. SST AROUND 28 DEGREES CELCIUS. POLA IS BEING STEERED TO THE SOUTH BY THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE EAST. DVORAK ANALYSIS BASED ON EYE PATTERN
WITH B EYE AND LG SURROUND, YIELDS DT=5.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT BASED ON DT.
THUS, YIELDING T5.0/5.5/D0.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 26.3S 177.9W MOV S AT 10 KT WITH 80 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 27.9S 177.2W MOV S AT 9 KT WITH 65 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 28.8S 175.2W MOV SSE AT 8 KT WITH 60 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 28.9S 171.8W MOV SE AT 8 KT WITH 50 KT CLOSE TO
CENTRE

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON POLA UNLESS THE
SITUATION CHANGES.

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 2226 UTC 28-Feb-2019

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

Tropical cyclone Pola (954hPa, category 3) was located about 240nm
north of Raoul Island this morning, moving south. Maximum winds near
the centre were estimated to be 85 knots (160km/h), with gales
extending up to 120nm (220km) from the centre.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC SAT 02-MAR-2019
TC Pola is expected to move south-southeast over the next couple of
days, passing within about 75nm (140km) of Raoul Island tonight and
then moving away to the east of the island while weakening. Ex-TC Oma
is expected to drift west across Vanuatu into the Coral Sea while
remaining a weak low. No other sigificant lows of interest.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC TUE 05-MAR-2019
TC Pola is expected to move east or eastnortheast away from Raoul
Island while weakening, and will likely be reclassified as an
extratropical low by Sunday. Ex-TC Oma is expected to drift west
across the Coral Sea as a weak low, and redevelopment of the system
is not favoured. No other significant lows of interest.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Sat 02-Mar-2019

06Z報

TROPICAL CYCLONE STORM WARNING 011
This affects ocean area: SUBTROPIC
Tropical Cyclone POLA [975hPa] centre was located near 27.4 South 177.7 West at 010600 UTC.
Position Fair.
Repeat position 27.4S 177.7W at 010600 UTC.
Cyclone is moving southsoutheast 12 knots.
Expect sustained winds of 60 knots close to the centre easing to 55 knots by 011800 UTC and then easing to 50 knots by 020600 UTC with high to very high sea and moderate to heavy swell.
Expect winds over 47 knots within 50 nautical miles of centre in the sector from north through east to west and within 30 nautical miles of centre in the northwest quadrant.
Expect winds over 33 knots within 120 nautical miles of centre in the northeast quadrant and within 150 nautical miles of centre in the southern semicircle and within 90 nautical miles of centre in the northwest quadrant with very rough sea and moderate to heavy swell.

Forecast position near 28.9S 176.3W at 011800 UTC
and near 29.0S 173.0W at 020600 UTC.
This warning cancels and replaces warning 005.

Issued at 7:54pm Friday 1 Mar 2019

jrchang5

紐西蘭氣象局判定01/18Z變性為溫帶氣旋。

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL BULLETIN ISSUED BY METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF NEW ZEALAND AT 2152 UTC 01-Mar-2019

CURRENT STATUS OF CYCLONE ACTIVITY

There are presently no tropical cyclones in the Coral Sea or South
Pacific areas. Cyclone Pola was reclassified as an extratropical low
at 01/1800 UTC this morning (7am Saturday New Zealand local time),and
was located near 29S 176W or about 100nm eastnortheast of Raoul
Island, moving east.

FORECAST TO 1200 UTC SUN 03-MAR-2019
Ex-TC Pola is expected to move east or eastnortheast away from Raoul
Island over the next couple of days while weakening. Meanwhile ex-TC
Oma was located near northern Vanuatu, and is expected to move west
into the Coral Sea while remaining a weak low. No other significant
lows of interest.

OUTLOOK UNTIL 1200 UTC WED 06-MAR-2019
Ex-TC Pola is expected to continue moving east or eastnortheast away
from Raoul Island and weaken further. Ex-TC Oma is expected to remain
a weak low and move west across the Coral Sea. No other significant
lows of interest.

The next bulletin will be issued by 0500 UTC Sun 03-Mar-2019

JTWC亦同時發出Final Warning。

SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 016
WTPS31 PGTW 012100
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 16P (POLA) WARNING NR 016
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
011800Z --- NEAR 28.1S 176.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 110 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 176.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
020600Z --- 28.3S 172.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
012100Z POSITION NEAR 28.1S 175.4W.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 16P (POLA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 644 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF NIUE, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON
WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011800Z
IS 20 FEET.
//
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