霧峰追風者

  熱帶低壓  
編號：13 U ( 95 P )
名稱：無

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2019 年 01 月 22 日 08 時
升格熱低日期：2019 年 01 月 24 日 14 時
撤編日期　　：2019 年 01 月 28 日 20 時
登陸地點　　：澳大利亞 約克角半島

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最大風速：
澳洲氣象局 ( BoM )：30 kt
聯合颱風警報中心 (JTWC)：30 kts ( TD )
海平面最低氣壓：997 百帕

  過去路徑圖  

  擾動編號資料  
95P.INVEST.15kts-NAmb-10.4S-142.6E


以上資料來自：BoM、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 21Z評級Low

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
12.3S 142.0E, APPROXIMATELY 25.5 NM NORTH OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 221953Z SSMIS
91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT BROAD TURNING AND FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE
BANDING WRAPPING INTO A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC),
THOUGH THERE IS LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLCC ITSELF. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
(30-32C) IN THE SURROUNDING AREA FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS REMAIN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT, SHOWING THE SYSTEM TRACKING
SOUTHWARD ON EITHER SIDE OF CAPE YORK, AUSTRALIA, DEVELOPING IN
SEVERAL DAYS, THEN MOVING OVER LAND SHORTLY AFTER. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 18Z評級提升至Medium，進入卡灣發展。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.3S 141.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3S 140.9E, APPROXIMATELY
66 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER AN ELONGATED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION
TO THE SOUTHWEST. A 231557Z AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE
ELONGATED LLCC ALONG WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER AND TO THE
WEST OF THE LLCC. A 231233Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF
25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC. 95P IS CURRENTLY IN A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD POLEWARD AND
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, VERY WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), AND LOW (5 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS). GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE THAT 95P WILL GRADUALLY
INTENSIFY AND TRACK SOUTHWARD, HOWEVER, SUBTLE DIFFERENCES IN TRACK
LEAD TO WIDE DISAGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS. MODELS THAT KEEP THE
LLCC OVER THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA SHOW SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT WHILE
THOSE THAT BRING THE TRACK OVER CAPE YORK DO NOT DEVELOP A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.

jrchang5

BoM判定06Z升格為熱帶低壓，並編號13U，預計將繼續發展為澳式C1。

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0712 UTC 24/01/2019
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 12.0S
Longitude: 140.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [216 deg]
Speed of Movement: 5 knots [9 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 20 knots [35 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 1002 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T1.5/1.5/D1.0/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 150 nm [280 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  24/1200: 12.3S 140.7E:     030 [060]:  025  [045]: 1005
+12:  24/1800: 12.8S 140.6E:     045 [080]:  025  [045]: 1003
+18:  25/0000: 13.0S 140.7E:     055 [105]:  030  [055]: 1002
+24:  25/0600: 13.5S 141.0E:     070 [130]:  030  [055]: 1001
+36:  25/1800: 14.6S 141.4E:     090 [165]:  035  [065]: 1001
+48:  26/0600: 15.7S 141.3E:     110 [200]:  045  [085]:  994
+60:  26/1800: 16.3S 140.7E:     130 [235]:  045  [085]:  994
+72:  27/0600: 17.1S 140.2E:     145 [270]:  045  [085]:  994
+96:  28/0600: 17.7S 137.9E:     190 [355]:  030  [055]: 1003
+120: 29/0600: 17.4S 136.1E:     280 [515]:  025  [045]: 1005
REMARKS:
Centre loacted using combination of Weipa radar and satellite imagery, fix is
considered good.

Deep convection has persisted near the low level circulation centre over the
past few hours, primarily over the western flank, although there is some signs
of convective development over the eastern flank as well. Dvorak analysis based
on curved band wrapping 0.3, yielding DT1.5. Current intensity set at 25 knots.


Motion has been slowly to the south-southwest under the influence of the mid
level ridge to the east and the digging upper low over the far eastern Northern
Territory. These features should remain the dominant steering influences until
Sunday, when the upper low is forecast to weaken, allowing the mid level ridge
over central Queensland to steer the system onto a southwesterly track. Most
dynamical model guidance is broadly consistent with this evolution.  

The environment is currently very favourable for development, with very weak
vertical wind shear, and good upper level outflow in all quadrants, combined
with sea surface temperatures around 30C. SHIPS guidance is suggestive of RI in
the next 24 hours, but this does not seem reasonable given the relatively weak
and broad nature of the vortex at the present time. As the system moves south,
it will gradually come under the influence of the upper low, leading to an
increase in northwesterly vertical wind shear, forecast to reach around 20 knots
by Friday evening. This may be partially offset by warmer SSTs over the
southeastern Gulf, leading to stronger convection and a more resilient vortex.
However, the centre may also be very close to land along the west coast of Cape
York Peninsula at this time which may hamper development. The official forecast
calls for development at around the standard rate for the next 24 hours,
followed by slower and eventually arrested development. This calls for the
system topping out at category 1, although there is potential for the system to
reach category 2 status on Saturday.      

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 24/1330 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 1
Issued at 4:55 pm EST on Thursday 24 January 2019

Headline:
Tropical low over the northeastern Gulf of Carpentaria to intensify and track south

Areas Affected:
Warning Zone
None.

Watch Zone
Mornington Island to Mapoon, including Weipa, Burketown, Normanton and Kowanyama.

Cancelled Zone
None.

Details of Tropical Low at 4:00 pm AEST
Intensity: Tropical Low, sustained winds near the centre of 35 kilometres per hour with wind gusts to 85 kilometres per hour.

Location: within 35 kilometres of 12.0 degrees South 140.9 degrees East, estimated to be 135 kilometres northwest of Weipa and 550 kilometres north northeast of Mornington Island.

Movement: southwest at 9 kilometres per hour.

The tropical low is expected to intensify into a tropical cyclone in the next day or two as it moves slowly to the south.

Hazards:
Gales are not expected to develop along the coast in the next 24 hours, but may develop between Mapoon and Gilbert River Mouth overnight Friday or Saturday morning and extend south to the remainder of the Watch zone later on Saturday.

Heavy rainfall, which may lead to both flash flooding and riverine flooding, is expected to develop across Cape York Peninsula and spread slowly southwards. A Severe Weather Warning and Flood Watch are current over Cape York Peninsula, the eastern Gulf Country and the North Tropical Coast, see: www.bom.gov.au/qld/warnings/

Recommended Action:
People between Mapoon and Mornington Island should consider what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.

- Information is available from your local government.

- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au).

- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on 132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on buildings or roof damage).

Next Advice:
The next advice will be issued by 11:00 pm AEST Thursday 24 January.

This warning is also available through TV and Radio Broadcasts; the Bureau's website at www.bom.gov.au or call 1300 659 212. The Bureau and the State Emergency Service would appreciate this warning being broadcast regularly.

jrchang5

JTWC於16Z發布TCFA。

WTPS21 PGTW 241600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/ (INVEST 95P)/
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.4S 140.7E TO 16.7S 141.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
241200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
140.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 12.2S 140.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.8S 140.7E, APPROXIMATELY
250 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MORNINGTON ISLAND, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BUILDING CONVECTION TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE
BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN FROM THE NORTH. A 241136Z GMI 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS POCKETS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO AN
ORGANIZED LLCC. A 240013Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS A TIGHT
CIRCULATION WITH A SMALL SWATH OF 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTH. 95P IS
CURRENTLY IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND VERY
WARM (30 TO 32 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE COAST AND INTENSIFY BEFORE MOVING OVER LAND. BASED ON
PROXIMITY TO THE COAST, SMALL DIFFERENCES IN THE ACTUAL TRACK OF 95P
WILL HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON THE INTENSIFICATION RATE. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
251600Z.//
NNNN

t02436

比預期往東偏一點，中心即將登陸約克角半島，能不能命名就看18Z這一報了。

IDQ20018
TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 1320 UTC 25/01/2019
Name: Tropical Low  
Identifier: 13U
Data At: 1200 UTC
Latitude: 13.4S
Longitude: 140.9E
Location Accuracy: within 30 nm [55 km]
Movement Towards: southeast [141 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [14 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 30 knots [55 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 45 knots [85 km/h]
Central Pressure: 999 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant:   
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant:   
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds:   
Dvorak Intensity Code: T2.5/2.5/D0.5/24HRS STT:S0.0/06HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 120 nm [220 km]
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time    : Location    : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind   : Central Pressure
[UTC]        : degrees     :      nm  [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+06:  25/1800: 14.0S 141.4E:     040 [080]:  035  [065]:  999
+12:  26/0000: 14.7S 141.8E:     055 [100]:  030  [055]:  999
+18:  26/0600: 15.2S 141.8E:     065 [125]:  030  [055]:  998
+24:  26/1200: 15.5S 141.9E:     080 [145]:  030  [055]:  998
+36:  27/0000: 16.2S 141.5E:     100 [180]:  030  [055]:  998
+48:  27/1200: 17.2S 140.8E:     120 [220]:  030  [055]:  999
+60:  28/0000: 17.8S 139.1E:     140 [255]:  030  [055]:  999
+72:  28/1200: 17.8S 137.8E:     155 [290]:  025  [045]: 1001
+96:  29/1200: 17.7S 136.1E:     200 [370]:  025  [045]: 1001
+120: 30/1200: 18.3S 136.4E:     290 [535]:  025  [045]: 1002
REMARKS:
Earlier today, the low level centre moved under an area of deep convection,
which has continued to sporadically develop and exhibit a fair degree of
curvature. Deep convection is now primarily confined to the southern flank. The
latest Dvorak analysis was based on a curved band pattern averaging a 0.5 degree
wrap, giving a DT of 2.5. MET and PAT were 2.0 and 2.5 respectively. FT was
based on DT. This analysis is similar to that from the ADT-NESDIS. Current
intensist set at 30 knots.

Animated imagery, MW passes and a recent Ascat pass have all shown that the
tropical low has been moving to the southeast under the combined influences of
the monsoonal flow to the north of the system, a mid-level ridge situated to the
east, and the upper trough over far eastern Northern Territory. From late
Saturday into Sunday, these features will tend to weaken, leading to a gradual
shift to a southwesterly track under the influence of a mid level ridge to the
south.

The environment is becoming less conducive for intensification, with
northwesterly vertical wind shear increasing and outflow on the equatorward side
of the system becoming restricted. At this stage, there remains some potential
that the low will briefly form into a minimal tropical cyclone before likely
making landfall along the west coast of Cape York Peninsula early Saturday
morning. It is possible that the system may remain over eastern Gulf
ofCarpentaria waters, but this scenario is becoming less likely based on its
recent movement.

Into Sunday, the tropical low may emerge back over southeast Gulf of Carpentaria
waters, and possibly redevelop into a tropical cyclone, although there are a few
factors that will work against redevelopment: the system will continue to be
located close to or over land, and vertical shear will persist, possibly
combined with drier mid-level air that may infiltrate the circulation.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 25/1930 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.

霧峰追風者

JTWC 06Z取消TCFA,評級降低至Medium,登陸約克角半島，無緣升格。

WTPS21 PGTW 260530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95P) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251421ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1S 140.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 142.5E, APPROXIMATELY
230NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 260359Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED OVER LAND WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ELONGATED,
WITH A LARGE PORTION REMAINING OVER WATER. AN INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE, WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-30KTS) AND WEAKENING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND LAND INTERACTION TAKES ITS TOLL.
HOWEVER, THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FORMATION EXISTS SHOULD THE
WEAKENED LLC BRIEFLY MOVE OVER WATER ALONG THE WARM SOUTHERN SHORE
OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO MEDIUM. THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 251430).//
NNNN

jrchang5

JTWC於01260530Z取消TCFA，並降評為Medium。
由於垂直風切增大，極向流出轉差，主要深對流已移入約克角半島，低層環流卻仍在卡灣滯留打轉，發展不如預期，無緣命名。

WTPS21 PGTW 260530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95P) CANCELLATION//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/251421ZJAN2019//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT REISSUED//
RMKS/
1. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 13.1S 140.6E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.8S 142.5E, APPROXIMATELY
230NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 260359Z 89GHZ AMSR2 MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
THAT MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS MOVED OVER LAND WHILE THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) HAS BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE ELONGATED,
WITH A LARGE PORTION REMAINING OVER WATER. AN INCREASINGLY
UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS PRIMARILY RESPONSIBLE, WITH
MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-30KTS) AND WEAKENING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON THE SYSTEM
GRADUALLY DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT CONTINUES
TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AND LAND INTERACTION TAKES ITS TOLL.
HOWEVER, THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF FORMATION EXISTS SHOULD THE
WEAKENED LLC BRIEFLY MOVE OVER WATER ALONG THE WARM SOUTHERN SHORE
OF THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO MEDIUM. THIS CANCELS REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 251430).//
NNNN