霧峰追風者

  一級熱帶氣旋   ｜  強烈熱帶氣旋  
編號：04-20182019 ( 06 S )
名稱：Kenanga

  基本資料  
擾動編號日期：2018 年 12 月 11 日 02 時
命名日期　　：2018 年 12 月 15 日 21 時
JTWC升格日期:2018 年 12 月 16 日 02 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 12 月 00 日 00 時
登陸地點　　：暫無

  巔峰時期資料  
近中心最強風速
印尼雅加達氣象局 ( BMKG )：40 kt
法國氣象局 ( MFR )：100 kt--16/12Z接續發報
聯合颱風警報中心 ( JTWC )：115 kts ( Cat.4 )
海平面最低氣壓：942 百帕

  過去路徑圖  
無

  擾動編號資料  
91S.INVEST.15kts-1010mb-4.2S-87.6E


以上資料來自：BMKG、MFR、JTWC、颱風論壇整理製作

霧峰追風者

JTWC 17Z評級Low

  (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.7S
93.3E, APPROXIMATELY 782 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF JAKARTA, INDONESIA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A DISORGANIZED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES LOW TO MODERATE (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR WITH LIGHT UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SUPPORTIVE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL GOOD
AGREEMENT ON A SOUTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE SYSTEM GRADUALLY
DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME TRACK UNCERTAINTY EXISTS, WITH
SOME MODELS SHOWING 91S REMAINING QUASI-STATIONARY FOR THE FIRST 6-
12 HOURS OF THE MODEL RUN.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

jrchang5

JTWC於12131000Z提升評級為Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.9S 91.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.7S 93.5E, APPROXIMATELY 434
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT A BROAD, SLIGHTLY ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CENTER (LLC) IS
MOSTLY OBSCURED BY CONVECTION. A 130655Z AMSR2 GW1 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE LLC WITH SOME
FORMATIVE BANDING TO THE SOUTH. A 130303Z METOP-A PARTIAL ASCAT PASS
SHOWS A SWATH OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE NORTHWEST. 91S IS
CURRENTLY SITTING IN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH FAVORABLE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (26 TO 28 CELSIUS) AND VERY GOOD POLEWARD
WESTWARD OUTFLOW. 91S IS BETWEEN VERY HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
(40 TO 50 KNOTS) TO THE NORTH OF THE LLC AND LOW VWS (5 TO 10 KNOTS)
TO THE SOUTH OF THE LLC. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT
91S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

jrchang5

JTWC已於12132100Z發布TCFA。

WTXS21 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.9S 92.5E TO 11.5S 88.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 23 TO 28 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 131800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 7.6S 91.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 16
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91S) PREVIOUSLY
LOCATED NEAR 6.8S 92.8, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 91.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 428 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ENHANCED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A PARTIAL 131920Z AMSR2 89 GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC)
WITH FRAGMENTED, FORMATIVE BANDING AND PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KNOT)
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (26-28 CELSIUS) ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. A RECENT
PARTIAL ASCAT PASS REVEALS A BROAD, SYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH
STRONGER WINDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC FROM THE NORTHEAST. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91S WILL TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
142100Z.//
NNNN

霧峰追風者

BMKG 命名"Kenanga"，逐漸增強中。

System: 1
Storm ID: 91S
SIKLON TROPIS: KENANGA
Data pada: 15/1200 UTC
Lintang: 8,7LS
Bujur: 92,0BT
Akurasi Posisi: sekitar
Arah gerak: timur tenggara (121 derajat)
Kecepatan gerak: 6 knots (11 km/jam)
Arah 1: Dari Kerinci
Pada +0: 670 mil (1240 km) barat daya
Pada +12: 720 mil (1330 km) barat daya
Pada +24: 800 mil (1470 km) barat daya
Arah 2: Dari Bengkulu
Pada +0: 680 mil (1260 km) barat barat daya
-----------------------------------------
SIKLON TROPIS: KENANGA
Data pada: 15/1200 UTC
Lintang: 8,7LS
Bujur: 92,0BT
Akurasi Posisi: sekitar   
Arah gerak: timur tenggara (121 derajat)
Kecepatan gerak: 6 knots (11 km/jam)
Arah 1: Dari Kerinci
   Pada  +0: 670 mil (1240 km) barat daya
   Pada +12: 720 mil (1330 km) barat daya
   Pada +24: 800 mil (1470 km) barat daya
Arah 2: Dari Bengkulu
   Pada  +0: 680 mil (1260 km) barat barat daya

Angin Maksimum 10-Menit: 35 knots (65 km/jam)
Gust Maksimum 3-detik: 50 knots (95 km/jam)
Tekanan dipusat siklon: 1000 hPa
Intensitas: Gale
24 jam Intensitas: Storm

jrchang5

JTWC於12152100Z發報升格為Tropical Cyclone 06S。
目前所處環境海溫不錯、高空輻散佳，但垂直風切亦大，其發展速度可能受限，預計72小時後強度上看55kts。

REMARKS:
152100Z POSITION NEAR 9.1S 91.2E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 06S (SIX), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1116 NM EAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION FLARING OVER A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). A 151500Z ASCAT PASS REVEALED A BROAD WIND FIELD WITH
30 KT WINDS WRAPPED AROUND THE CENTER, AND AREAS OF 35 KT WINDS
DISPLACED FROM THE CENTER. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
ASCAT AMBIGUITIES WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
ASSESSED AT 35 KTS BASED ON THE ASCAT PASS, WHICH IS BETWEEN THE
PGTW AND KNES DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T2.0 (30 KTS)
AND T3.0 (45 KTS). TC 06S IS BENEFITING FROM EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND WARM (27 DEGREES CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KT) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (VWS) IS LIMITING ITS RATE OF DEVELOPMENT. TC 06S IS FORECAST
TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AS A NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE WEST BUILDS
IN TO THE REGION. TC 06S IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY UNDER
MARGINAL ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS TO A PEAK OF 55 KTS AT TAU 72. THE
SYSTEM WILL THEN FLIRT WITH THE 26 DEGREE CELSIUS ISOTHERM AS IT
MOVES DUE WESTWARD INTO DRIER AIR, AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL
DECREASE, LEADING TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AFTER TAU 96. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COAMPS-NAVGEM,
WITH 320NM OF MODEL SPREAD AT TAU 96 NOT COUNTING COAMPS-NAVGEM, AND
SOME VARIATION IN ALONG-TRACK SPEED. THE JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED
WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BEHIND AND SOUTH OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
IN THE NEAR-TERM, TOWARDS THE GFS AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS, TO ACCOUNT
FOR SLOW CURRENT SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z,
161500Z AND 162100Z.

霧峰追風者

進入MFR責任區，開始接手發報。

WTIO31 FMEE 161356
CMRS / CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION
BULLETIN D'ANALYSE ET DE PREVISION CYCLONIQUE (SUD-OUEST OCEAN INDIEN)
0.A NUMERO DU BULLETIN : 1/4/20182019
1.A TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE 4 (KENANGA)
2.A POSITION A 1200 UTC LE 16/12/2018 :
DANS UN RAYON DE 25 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 10.5 S / 90.4 E
(DIX DEGRES CINQ SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-DIX DEGRES QUATRE EST)
DEPLACEMENT: SUD-OUEST 8 KT
3.A ANALYSE DE DVORAK : 3.0/3.0/D 1.0/24 H
4.A PRESSION AU CENTRE : 996 HPA
5.A VENT MAX (MOYEN/10 MN): 40 KT
RAYON DES VENTS MAXIMAUX (RVM) :37 KM
6.A EXTENSION DES VENTS PAR QUADRANTS (KM) :
28 KT NE: 150 SE: 110 SO: 110 NO: 150
34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SO: 60 NO: 60
7.A COTE/DIAM PREMIERE ISOBARE FERMEE: 1007 HPA / 900 KM
8.A EXTENSION VERTICALE DE LA CIRCULATION CYCLONIQUE : PROFONDE
1.B PREVISIONS :
12H: 17/12/2018 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 88.9 E, VENT MAX=050 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
24H: 17/12/2018 12 UTC: 12.9 S / 87.1 E, VENT MAX=060 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
36H: 18/12/2018 00 UTC: 13.9 S / 85.6 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
48H: 18/12/2018 12 UTC: 15.0 S / 84.1 E, VENT MAX=070 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
60H: 19/12/2018 00 UTC: 15.8 S / 83.0 E, VENT MAX=065 KT, CYCLONE TROPICAL
72H: 19/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.3 S / 82.0 E, VENT MAX=055 KT, FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE
2.B TENDANCE ULTERIEURE:
96H: 20/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.5 S / 80.2 E, VENT MAX=040 KT, TEMPETE TROPICALE
MODEREE
120H: 21/12/2018 12 UTC: 16.8 S / 78.1 E, VENT MAX=030 KT, DEPRESSION TROPICALE
2.C COMMENTAIRES :
T=CI=3.0+
AU COURS DES DERNIERES HEURES, MALGRE LA PERSISTANCE D'UN FORT
CISAILLEMENT DE SECTEUR EST, LE SYSTEME FORME IL Y PLUSIEURS JOURS, S'EST
LENTEMENT INTENSIFIE ET A ETE BAPTISE KENANGA PAR LE TCWC DE JAKARTA
HIER A 12Z. DEPUIS, KENANGA A COMMENCE A ACCELERE VERS LE SUD-OUEST,
PERMETTANT UNE DIMINUTION DES EFFETS NEFASTES DE LA CONTRAINTE. LES
DERNIERES IMAGES MICRO-ONDES CONFIRMENT QUE LE CENTRE S'EST
PROGRESSIVEMENT REPOSITIONNE SOUS LA CONVECTION. AINSI L'INTENSITE
ACTUELLE DE 40KT EST PEUT ETRE UN PEU CONSERVATIVE. LA POSITION
ACTUELLE, PAR MANQUE DE DONNEES QUALITATIVES, EST PROBABLEMENT TROP A
L'EST.
KENANGA A ENTAME SON ACCELERATION VERS LE SUD-OUEST EN L'ABSENCE DE
DORSALE MARQUEE AU SUD. EN MILIEU DE SEMAINE EN LIEN AVEC UNE PHASE
D'AFFAIBLISSEMENT, LE FLUX DIRECTEUR DEVRAIT REVENIR DANS LES BASSES
COUCHES, OU LES HAUTS GEOPOTENTIELS SONT PLUS PRESENTS. LE SYSTEME
DEVRAIT ALORS RALENTIR ET S'ORIENTER VERS L'OUEST-SUD-OUEST.
EN TERME D'INTENSITE, AU VU DE SON EVOLUTION RECENTE ET DE
L'AMELIORATION DE SON ENVIRONNEMENT DANS LES PROCHAINES HEURES,
KENANGA DEVRAIT POURSUIVRE SON INTENSIFICATION. UNE INTENSIFICATION
RAPIDE (+30KT EN 24KT) N'EST PAS EXCLUE. LE POTENTIEL OCEANIQUE ET LA
BONNE DIVERGENCE SUR CETTE TRAJECTOIRE DEVRAIT PERMETTRE AU SYSTEME
D'ATTEINDRE LE STADE DE CYCLONE TROPICAL. MARDI PUIS MERCREDI, LES
CONDITIONS DEVRAIENT SE DEGRADER AVEC LE RENFORCEMENT D'UNE
CONTRAINTE DE SECTEUR OUEST-NORD-OUEST EN MARGE DU JET D'OUEST
SUBTROPICAL. AU SEIN D'UNE MASSE D'AIR ENVIRONNANTE TRES SECHE, CE
CISAILLEMENT DEVRAIT CONDUIRE A UN NET AFFAIBLISSEMENT DU MINIMUM.

jrchang5

由於高空輻散良好，垂直風切降低，JTWC於12180300Z已將近中心最大風速提升至70kts(12180000Z)，且未來仍有稍微上調的空間。又未來是否會與另一發展中的擾動92S相互影響，導致06S的路徑略往西偏，變數仍大，有待繼續觀察。

REMARKS:
180300Z POSITION NEAR 13.8S 84.4E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 06S (KENANGA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 819 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTIVE RAIN BANDS WRAPPING INTO
AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE ANIMATED
IMAGERY REVEALED BRIEF PERIODS WHERE AN EYE APPEARED TO BE FORMING,
ONLY TO BE OBSCURED AGAIN A FRAME OR TWO LATER. THERE IS FAIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A 172235Z SSMIS 37 GHZ
PARTIAL MICROWAVE IMAGE WHICH SHOWS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
DEVELOPING EYEWALL. THE SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY
FAVORABLE WITH A POCKET OF LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD
RADIAL OUTFLOW, AND MARGINAL (26-27 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 70 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0-T4.5 (65-77 KTS). TC 06S
WILL TRACK WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWESTWARD FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST AS IT FOLLOWS THE PERIPHERY OF A SHIFTING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTH. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD, TC 06S MAY
BEGIN TO EXPERIENCE DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH A SECOND,
DEVELOPING TROPICAL CYCLONE (CURRENTLY 92S) TO THE WEST. TC 06S
SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY TO 80 KNOTS BY TAU 36. AFTER TAU 48,
CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME UNFAVORABLE AND TC 06S IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN. DESPITE GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT IN DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST BECAUSE THE
SPREAD IS FAIRLY LARGE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR DCI LATE IN THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 24
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.//
NNNN