霧峰追風者

  基本資料  
編號　　　　：99 C
擾動編號日期：2018 年 12 月 08 日 15 時
撤編日期　　：2018 年 12 月 13 日 14 時
99C.INVEST.25kts-1006mb-5.0N-175.0W

zjk369

日本氣象廳10號凌晨三點升格熱帶擾動

jrchang5

已進入西太。JTWC於12100130Z評級Low。

(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99C) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
3.4N 179.5E, APPROXIMATELY 805 NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 092119Z MHS METOP-A 89GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A POORLY ORGANIZED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
(LLC) WITH FLARING, SCATTERED CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
AND GOOD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 CELSIUS) IN THE
SURROUNDING WATERS ARE SUPPORTIVE FOR FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. DYNAMIC
MODELS ARE SPLIT ON WHETHER THE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS
IT TRACKS TO THE NORTHWEST OR MAINTAIN A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

jrchang5

JTWC於12101400Z提升評級為Medium。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.0N 180.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 178.2E, APPROXIMATELY 680
NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY
AND A 100926Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW A DISORGANIZED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SMALL POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION TO
THE NORTHWEST AND SOUTH. 99C SITS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
FUTURE DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (5 TO 10 KNOTS), AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28 TO
30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 99C WILL GENERALLY TRACK
WESTWARD AND INTENSIFY BEFORE TURNING NORTHWARD AROUND A SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

jrchang5

JTWC於12111530Z降評為Low。目前各大數值預報對其未來發展情況，看法並不一致，仍有待觀察。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.0N 174.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.0N 172.0E, APPROXIMATELY 385
NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A
110941Z 89GHZ METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT HIGHLY DISORGANIZED
DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS IS FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5-15
KNOTS) VWS AND POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE. SSTS REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE (30-
32C) IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INVEST 99C, HOWEVER, NAVGEM AND GFS INDICATE THE
TROPICAL WAVE TO THE NORTH MAY GRADUALLY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS AS IT TRACKS WESTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED
TO LOW.

jrchang5

JTWC已於12111900Z取消評級Low，同時將位於99C東北方的另一擾動94W評級Low。

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99C) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4N 171E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.